6/16-6/18 Severe Weather

[SchaumburgStormer]

11 minutes ago, nvck said:

don't disagree w/ the spc often, but not a single tor warning, let alone report, out of that line

Fucking Broyles

[CheeselandSkies]

7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Fucking Broyles

I got a DM from someone purporting to be Chris Broyles over on Talkweather; addressing the opinions I've expressed about him in the posts I've made on there (I was a LITTLE more tactful than that!). Not sure if I believe it. That's I'll I'll say about that.

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I got a DM from someone purporting to be Chris Broyles over on Talkweather; addressing the opinions I've expressed about him in the posts I've made on there (I was a LITTLE more tactful than that!). Not sure if I believe it. That's I'll I'll say about that.

I'm sure it was in fact him, lol...

Heeeyyy Chris!!! 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Quite breezy as the backside of the rain starts to work through 

[Jackstraw]

Well, this thing is far from over for those of us down in my area and west. There were always 2 shortwaves forecasted with this for the last 72 hours and a lot of questions if the WF would make it up to the IN/MI border after this initial shortwave. Spacing will be everything. The surface reflection is just now getting wound up. TBH, this MCS is coming through a couple hours sooner than I was expecting.. There's still a good chance of recovery as the second SW comes through and the surface low rapidly deepens. I think at least S of I80 to the I70 corridor from MO up through Central IN and Western OH are still going to be under the gun for broken lines of long tracked sups from around 3pm on. Especially if that LLJ cranks up like it did yesterday. You don't need huge Capes and/or dews in the mid to upper 70's with a setup like this. We know this from our experiences with early and late season powerful kinematic setups like this. 60 to 180 veering winds through the column can more than make up for large Capes IMO. I'm not shutting the door at all yet. 

[Chicago Storm]

Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection

one of the worst md’s and watches from them this year, maybe the worst.

totally uncalled for.

[nvck]

47 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Fucking Broyles

he's had some wins in the past, but this is definitely not one of them

[mjwise]

Wind really roared here for about 10-15 minutes. 51MPH gust at recorded at DKB. Power has flickered several times. 53 degrees out. Pretty unreal for June 17, feels more like April 17.

ETA: Winds still going, 49MPH gust recorded as well.

[cyclone77]

Yeah the back side winds have been impressive.

[Eskimo Joe]

28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah the back side winds have been impressive.

Dumb question, but is that the rear inflow jet flexing its muscles?

[IWXwx]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Dumb question, but is that the rear inflow et flexing its muscles?

Wake low?

[cyclone77]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Dumb question, but is that the rear inflow et flexing its muscles?

Think it's some process that's enhancing the surface flow.  Bringing some of the higher velocity winds down to the surface.  

[Chicago Storm]

3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Reverse jinx. 
 

THIS IS OUR MOMENT 

 

not this time, that was a real call for a change.

[nvck]

HRRR over-mixing bias on display once again, latest run undershoots dew points by several degrees across my area, with obs in the colored labels. 13z RRFS seems to have a much better handle on moisture, although it's under-doing SBCAPE by 750-1000J/kg, per mesoanalysis

[SchaumburgStormer]

Good amount of 2-3” limbs down all over town

[King James]

Typical rainy fall day here

[yoda]

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0103 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern/central Missouri...western
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 171803Z - 172000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon with
   potential for all hazards including damaging wind, large hail, and
   strong tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Morning convection has moved into central/eastern
   Illinois, with trailing outflow and a zone of differential heating
   extending across northern Missouri into south-central Illinois. This
   zone will be the focus of redevelopment of thunderstorm activity
   this afternoon. Strong daytime heating is ongoing across
   central/northern Missouri into far western Illinois in the cloud
   free zone south of the outflow. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates that
   MLCIN is eroding in this region, with temperatures climbing into the
   mid 80s F. This is further confirmed by visible satellite trends
   with the cumulus near the vicinity of the outflow also becoming
   increasingly agitated.

   Strong deep layer shear around 50-55 kts is analyzed across this
   region, with STP around 2-3 across northern Missouri into far
   western Illinois. This in combination with strong to moderate
   instability edging northward will likely support initial supercells
   capable of large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes (perhaps
   strong). A 40-50 kt low level jet axis extends from the
   southern/central Plains into Missouri/western Illinois. This is
   progged to shift north and eastward through the afternoon, which may
   shift the higher STP and more favorable tornado potential into
   portions of western/central Illinois.

   One or more watches will likely be needed to cover this potential
   this afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38788965 39578844 40158794 40518805 40738844 40788904
               40599090 40469164 40309251 40129360 40049405 39629469
               39309489 38959516 38169511 37979368 38499057 38619015
               38788965 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like a roughly 20 degree difference in surface temperatures between central IL and northeast MO. Definitely a healthy boundary there.

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has a casual 60 kt jet and supercell composite of 20, and mixing level CAPE of 1,500 - 2,500 in northeast Missouri. Something is going to fire up. 

[sbnwx85]

Re: IWX's forecast area... I think along and south of IN State Road 14 has a shot at a strong tornado. Maybe a spin-up along and south of U.S. 30. My biggest concern in South Bend is whether my basement gets water. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Well today seems to have shifted to an I72 event in IL

[nvck]

80/70 probs on the new watch

[IWXwx]

19 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Re: IWX's forecast area... I think along and south of IN State Road 14 has a shot at a strong tornado. Maybe a spin-up along and south of U.S. 30. My biggest concern in South Bend is whether my basement gets water. 

 

[Radtechwxman]

Definitely has the feel of an underperformer today. Seems like stuff already popping for 2nd round. We need more time to recover. But shear is stupid so something will probably happen on boundary. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Tropical downpour and constant lightning in this band moving through. Nice to get a little garden variety action.