Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I said it’s possible. It is. But all we have to go on is history. And that suggests the issue is likely to be temps. I don’t buy the models showing these long cold periods. They do that every Nino. The climate models seem to think every Nino is 2010. Dunno why. But they’ve been off several in a row. So I am not buying that. 
 

IMO the issue is it’s likely to be too warm to snow the majority in the winter. But we’re also likely to have a juiced up STJ. So the question is do we get enough cold windows to time up 1 of those juiced up 2” qpf waves?  So the math becomes is it too warm 95% of the time and then a 1998 becomes likely. Or is it only 75% and then 1983 or 2016 is more likely.  Somewhere in there it becomes more likely we do get lucky with at least one wave. And maybe we even get lucky with 2 but that falls in the same boom category just more boom. The bust is it’s too warm 90% of the time and we don’t time anything up and have very little snow. 
 

I am not arguing a twist can’t happen just that those are the most likely two scenarios. IMO maybe 40% boom, 40% bust, 20% some weird unforeseen outcome based on new climo. Just my 2 cents. I don’t have a crystal ball. 

Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

I think the Tug Hill area received somewhat less to right about average snowfall for 2015-16 depending on the exact area, and that winter seems to be a good comp for this upcoming Nino. I would guess there will be more mild/snowless periods than typical for that area in between big snow events. PSU can dig into the other analogs.

eta- Nov into Dec was quite warm relative to avg even up there, so the lack of snow during that period would have had some impact on seasonal totals.

[WxUSAF]

I seem to recall 15-16 was Albany’s least snowy year on record? Not an exact comp obviously, but shows that the synoptic snows at least can struggle up there in strong Ninos.

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I seem to recall 15-16 was Albany’s least snowy year on record? Not an exact comp obviously, but shows that the synoptic snows at least can struggle up there in strong Ninos.

Yeah same with Syracuse. I think that area is generally drier during a Nino wrt synoptic storms.

[CAPE]

Well after digging a bit more using AI, that winter seems to have been more suckass than I thought for the Tug hill region lol.

Because of the exceptionally powerful 2015–16 El Niño event, the lake-effect snow season started late and lacked its typical persistence. [1]

Estimated Snowfall Totals

While Montague can average between 200 and 300+ inches annually, estimates and nearby cooperative tracking stations put the broader town area's total roughly between 110 and 140 inches for the entire 2015–16 season: [1]

• Hooker (Hamlet within Montague): While Hooker holds legendary status for massive winters (and logged a whopping 339.3 inches much later during the 2024–25 season), it barely crossed the low triple-digits during the tracking span of this El Niño winter. [1, 2]
• Constableville 1.2 NW Station: Located just outside the Montague town line on the plateau, this official GHCN daily climate station wrapped up its main core monitoring period (Dec 1, 2015 – Feb 29, 2016) with just 96.97 inches of recorded snow. [1]

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

Typically ninos are not good there. Warm winters. Southern storm track. Split flow. Not a lot of NS waves. But all it takes is one cold blast to get an epic event and I’m not am expect on lake effect but typically strong nino seasons are below avg snow for the lakes. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Typically ninos are not good there. Warm winters. Southern storm track. Split flow. Not a lot of NS waves. But all it takes is one cold blast to get an epic event and I’m not am expect on lake effect but typically strong nino seasons are below avg snow for the lakes. 

A juiced up inland runner with just enough cold in place could produce a big snowstorm there. Otherwise its mostly LES. Still a pretty good place to be in the eastern US even if snowfall is below normal there. All relative.

[dailylurker]

Thanks for all the bad news lol. I appreciate everyone here. Snow camp is open to visitors. The positive note is I'm on top of the Tug. I'll have elevation on my side. 

[GramaxRefugee]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

snip... with just 96.97 inches of recorded snow. [1]...

Snow recorded to the hundredth? Wonder if that Ai thing is right.

[dailylurker]

14 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Snow recorded to the hundredth? Wonder if that Ai thing is right.

I'm seeing something that says they had 150" plus. Regardless, that pretty light for up there. My goal is to experience 300" inches of falling snow this season. My basecamp will be on the Tug, but I'll definitely chase big snowstorms from the Mid Atlantic up through New England. I've always wanted to experience a blizzard out on Cape Cod. 

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Snow recorded to the hundredth? Wonder if that Ai thing is right.

Probably not, but not like it's feet of snow off or something.

This is from NWS Buffalo.. clearly not a banner year for snowfall in that area.

https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/obs/COOPSNOW_2015-2016.pdf

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm seeing something that says they had 150" plus. Regardless, that pretty light for up there. My goal is to experience 300" inches of falling snow this season. My basecamp will be on the Tug, but I'll definitely chase big snowstorms from the Mid Atlantic up through New England. I've always wanted to experience a blizzard out on Cape Cod. 

Yeah coastal NE could be a cool chase. Esp Maine, where it's almost always cold enough for a bombing coastal low as it moves towards the Canadian Maritimes.

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm seeing something that says they had 150" plus. Regardless, that pretty light for up there. My goal is to experience 300" inches of falling snow this season. My basecamp will be on the Tug, but I'll definitely chase big snowstorms from the Mid Atlantic up through New England. I've always wanted to experience a blizzard out on Cape Cod. 

You aren't planning to be there the whole winter are you?

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You aren't planning to be there the whole winter are you?

Yup! December 1 until March 1. Katabatic is throwing in but won't be there full time. I still plan on chasing snowstorms and LES if it's missing my location. I'll be keeping my eye out for big Nino Nor'easters. I agree. A blizzard on the coast of Maine is on my bucket list. Katabatic was saying something about doing a chase up towards Hudson Bay. I'm down for whatever this winter. I might end up in Harrington Delaware again. You never know lol

[CAPE]

Just now, dailylurker said:

Yup! December 1 until March 1. Katabatic is throwing in but won't be there full time. I still plan on chasing snowstorms and LES if it's missing my location. I'll be keeping my eye out for big Nino Nor'easters. I agree. A blizzard on the coast of Maine is on my bucket list. Katabatic was saying something about doing a chase up towards Hudson Bay. I'm down for whatever this winter. I might end up in Harrington Delaware again. You never know lol

No work in winter? I figured you could put a finish on my deck in Dec when its in the 70s here. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Thanks for all the bad news lol. I appreciate everyone here. Snow camp is open to visitors. The positive note is I'm on top of the Tug. I'll have elevation on my side. 

I’ll chime in to add my thoughts. They mirror everyone else’s but it probably will be below average LES. To get LES you need good deep cold air running over warm water with a westerly flow. Seems like a La Niña string of NS waves would be the best pattern for get that. Not to say you won’t get any, but you’ll be more reliant on hoping the southern stream can get storms far enough up the coast to so you can get into the westerly flow. 

[dailylurker]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No work in winter? I figured you could put a finish on my deck in Dec when its in the 70s here. 

I plan on shutting down December 1 and hauling ass up north. If it's 50's up there and 70's here in December I'll stay open. I went to the Tug last January. When I came back it was like 70 for a week. I worked that entire week then shut it down. I make my annual income by December so I'm definitely not stressing. December, January, and the first couple weeks of February is my time to embrace my weirdness and focus on snowstorms. 

Let's schedule an estimate! I've got a few openings left in September and October. November is booked solid.

[dailylurker]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I’ll chime in to add my thoughts. They mirror everyone else’s but it probably will be below average LES. To get LES you need good deep cold air running over warm water with a westerly flow. Seems like a La Niña string of NS waves would be the best pattern for get that. Not to say you won’t get any, but you’ll be more reliant on hoping the southern stream can get storms far enough up the coast to so you can get into the westerly flow. 

I figure I'll be in a good location. I can get to the entire NE coast in less then 8 hours drive. I can hit the coast of Maine or head all the way back down here in less then 8 hour. I'll be up at Barns Corner watching like a hawk. There's going to be some big storms somewhere this winter. I plan on being in the jackpot for most of them. My goal is 300" this season. 

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I plan on shutting down December 1 and hauling ass up north. If it's 50's up there and 70's here in December I'll stay open. I went to the Tug last January. When I came back it was like 70 for a week. I worked that entire week then shut it down. I make my annual income by December so I'm definitely not stressing. December, January, and the first couple weeks of February is my time to embrace my weirdness and focus on snowstorms. 

Let's schedule an estimate! I've got a few openings left in September and October. November is booked solid.

I'm on the schedule to get the deck boards replaced in early October it looks like at this point. See how it goes. Could put off the finish until Spring if necessary, NBD. But yeah lets schedule an estimate sometime before you go off on your winter snow chase. Jealous!

[katabatic]

3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I figure I'll be in a good location. I can get to the entire NE coast in less then 8 hours drive. I can hit the coast of Maine or head all the way back down here in less then 8 hour. I'll be up at Barns Corner watching like a hawk. There's going to be some big storms somewhere this winter. I plan on being in the jackpot for most of them. My goal is 300" this season. 

I am very intrigued about this winter. There is so much oceanic heat wrt normal (what the hell does that mean anymore) that anything is possible. I've seen more than one long range forecast that depicts areas N of 40 deg being at or even a little below normal due to the wobbly 'polar vortex'. I think that's a long shot but by using the Tug as a base of operations, all else being equal, it's certainly positions us better than most. I did a chase up in Canada two years ago and it was a lot of fun and there are some serious bay effect areas SE of James/Hudson Bay. Ironically, Canada's plowing suuuuucks, so I have what amounts to seat belts for my tires. It's designed to be a bit more pleasant to drive on than traditional chains while still providing traction. I also purchased a Bluetti that will essentially turn my truck cabin into a living room for up to 3 days so @dailylurker and I can be completely mobile. If it's 38 and rain in New York, welp, filler up and head north. 

[dailylurker]

8 hours ago, katabatic said:

I am very intrigued about this winter. There is so much oceanic heat wrt normal (what the hell does that mean anymore) that anything is possible. I've seen more than one long range forecast that depicts areas N of 40 deg being at or even a little below normal due to the wobbly 'polar vortex'. I think that's a long shot but by using the Tug as a base of operations, all else being equal, it's certainly positions us better than most. I did a chase up in Canada two years ago and it was a lot of fun and there are some serious bay effect areas SE of James/Hudson Bay. Ironically, Canada's plowing suuuuucks, so I have what amounts to seat belts for my tires. It's designed to be a bit more pleasant to drive on than traditional chains while still providing traction. I also purchased a Bluetti that will essentially turn my truck cabin into a living room for up to 3 days so @dailylurker and I can be completely mobile. If it's 38 and rain in New York, welp, filler up and head north. 

I'd be down for an early season chase up at Hudson Bay. Catching BES in some small town in northern Canada we be ridiculously cool. 

[dailylurker]

13 hours ago, CAPE said:

I'm on the schedule to get the deck boards replaced in early October it looks like at this point. See how it goes. Could put off the finish until Spring if necessary, NBD. But yeah lets schedule an estimate sometime before you go off on your winter snow chase. Jealous!

Sweet! We'll definitely wait until spring. The wood will need time to dry out. Once it's dry I'd sand it out and apply some high quality oil. I'll have it looking like a wood floor. 

[Terpeast]

Couple things to watch for is the source region as the STJ will almost be a given. If canadian temp anomalies are more than +20 (with Minneapolis +15 or Syracuse +10) it won’t be good for us. But if the temp anomalies are more moderate, we’ll still be in good shape for some opportunities.

[Maestrobjwa]

Hey guys...is there any connection between s Super Niños and more mushrooms growing? Just curious...the one and only time I ever saw them grow in my front yard was December 2015. And now this year I'm seeing more of them than usual around the city/county.

[Wintrest]

Interesting. The mushrooms are indeed taking over. I’ve seen them in lawns (including my own) and parks that I never have before. Curious if anyone can speak to this.