Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I said it’s possible. It is. But all we have to go on is history. And that suggests the issue is likely to be temps. I don’t buy the models showing these long cold periods. They do that every Nino. The climate models seem to think every Nino is 2010. Dunno why. But they’ve been off several in a row. So I am not buying that. 
 

IMO the issue is it’s likely to be too warm to snow the majority in the winter. But we’re also likely to have a juiced up STJ. So the question is do we get enough cold windows to time up 1 of those juiced up 2” qpf waves?  So the math becomes is it too warm 95% of the time and then a 1998 becomes likely. Or is it only 75% and then 1983 or 2016 is more likely.  Somewhere in there it becomes more likely we do get lucky with at least one wave. And maybe we even get lucky with 2 but that falls in the same boom category just more boom. The bust is it’s too warm 90% of the time and we don’t time anything up and have very little snow. 
 

I am not arguing a twist can’t happen just that those are the most likely two scenarios. IMO maybe 40% boom, 40% bust, 20% some weird unforeseen outcome based on new climo. Just my 2 cents. I don’t have a crystal ball. 

Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

I think the Tug Hill area received somewhat less to right about average snowfall for 2015-16 depending on the exact area, and that winter seems to be a good comp for this upcoming Nino. I would guess there will be more mild/snowless periods than typical for that area in between big snow events. PSU can dig into the other analogs.

eta- Nov into Dec was quite warm relative to avg even up there, so the lack of snow during that period would have had some impact on seasonal totals.

[WxUSAF]

I seem to recall 15-16 was Albany’s least snowy year on record? Not an exact comp obviously, but shows that the synoptic snows at least can struggle up there in strong Ninos.

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I seem to recall 15-16 was Albany’s least snowy year on record? Not an exact comp obviously, but shows that the synoptic snows at least can struggle up there in strong Ninos.

Yeah same with Syracuse. I think that area is generally drier during a Nino wrt synoptic storms.

[CAPE]

Well after digging a bit more using AI, that winter seems to have been more suckass than I thought for the Tug hill region lol.

Because of the exceptionally powerful 2015–16 El Niño event, the lake-effect snow season started late and lacked its typical persistence. [1]

Estimated Snowfall Totals

While Montague can average between 200 and 300+ inches annually, estimates and nearby cooperative tracking stations put the broader town area's total roughly between 110 and 140 inches for the entire 2015–16 season: [1]

• Hooker (Hamlet within Montague): While Hooker holds legendary status for massive winters (and logged a whopping 339.3 inches much later during the 2024–25 season), it barely crossed the low triple-digits during the tracking span of this El Niño winter. [1, 2]
• Constableville 1.2 NW Station: Located just outside the Montague town line on the plateau, this official GHCN daily climate station wrapped up its main core monitoring period (Dec 1, 2015 – Feb 29, 2016) with just 96.97 inches of recorded snow. [1]

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

Typically ninos are not good there. Warm winters. Southern storm track. Split flow. Not a lot of NS waves. But all it takes is one cold blast to get an epic event and I’m not am expect on lake effect but typically strong nino seasons are below avg snow for the lakes. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Typically ninos are not good there. Warm winters. Southern storm track. Split flow. Not a lot of NS waves. But all it takes is one cold blast to get an epic event and I’m not am expect on lake effect but typically strong nino seasons are below avg snow for the lakes. 

A juiced up inland runner with just enough cold in place could produce a big snowstorm there. Otherwise its mostly LES. Still a pretty good place to be in the eastern US even if snowfall is below normal there. All relative.

[dailylurker]

Thanks for all the bad news lol. I appreciate everyone here. Snow camp is open to visitors. The positive note is I'm on top of the Tug. I'll have elevation on my side. 

[GramaxRefugee]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

snip... with just 96.97 inches of recorded snow. [1]...

Snow recorded to the hundredth? Wonder if that Ai thing is right.

[dailylurker]

14 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Snow recorded to the hundredth? Wonder if that Ai thing is right.

I'm seeing something that says they had 150" plus. Regardless, that pretty light for up there. My goal is to experience 300" inches of falling snow this season. My basecamp will be on the Tug, but I'll definitely chase big snowstorms from the Mid Atlantic up through New England. I've always wanted to experience a blizzard out on Cape Cod. 

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Snow recorded to the hundredth? Wonder if that Ai thing is right.

Probably not, but not like it's feet of snow off or something.

This is from NWS Buffalo.. clearly not a banner year for snowfall in that area.

https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/obs/COOPSNOW_2015-2016.pdf

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm seeing something that says they had 150" plus. Regardless, that pretty light for up there. My goal is to experience 300" inches of falling snow this season. My basecamp will be on the Tug, but I'll definitely chase big snowstorms from the Mid Atlantic up through New England. I've always wanted to experience a blizzard out on Cape Cod. 

Yeah coastal NE could be a cool chase. Esp Maine, where it's almost always cold enough for a bombing coastal low as it moves towards the Canadian Maritimes.

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm seeing something that says they had 150" plus. Regardless, that pretty light for up there. My goal is to experience 300" inches of falling snow this season. My basecamp will be on the Tug, but I'll definitely chase big snowstorms from the Mid Atlantic up through New England. I've always wanted to experience a blizzard out on Cape Cod. 

You aren't planning to be there the whole winter are you?

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You aren't planning to be there the whole winter are you?

Yup! December 1 until March 1. Katabatic is throwing in but won't be there full time. I still plan on chasing snowstorms and LES if it's missing my location. I'll be keeping my eye out for big Nino Nor'easters. I agree. A blizzard on the coast of Maine is on my bucket list. Katabatic was saying something about doing a chase up towards Hudson Bay. I'm down for whatever this winter. I might end up in Harrington Delaware again. You never know lol

[CAPE]

Just now, dailylurker said:

Yup! December 1 until March 1. Katabatic is throwing in but won't be there full time. I still plan on chasing snowstorms and LES if it's missing my location. I'll be keeping my eye out for big Nino Nor'easters. I agree. A blizzard on the coast of Maine is on my bucket list. Katabatic was saying something about doing a chase up towards Hudson Bay. I'm down for whatever this winter. I might end up in Harrington Delaware again. You never know lol

No work in winter? I figured you could put a finish on my deck in Dec when its in the 70s here.