Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I said it’s possible. It is. But all we have to go on is history. And that suggests the issue is likely to be temps. I don’t buy the models showing these long cold periods. They do that every Nino. The climate models seem to think every Nino is 2010. Dunno why. But they’ve been off several in a row. So I am not buying that. 
 

IMO the issue is it’s likely to be too warm to snow the majority in the winter. But we’re also likely to have a juiced up STJ. So the question is do we get enough cold windows to time up 1 of those juiced up 2” qpf waves?  So the math becomes is it too warm 95% of the time and then a 1998 becomes likely. Or is it only 75% and then 1983 or 2016 is more likely.  Somewhere in there it becomes more likely we do get lucky with at least one wave. And maybe we even get lucky with 2 but that falls in the same boom category just more boom. The bust is it’s too warm 90% of the time and we don’t time anything up and have very little snow. 
 

I am not arguing a twist can’t happen just that those are the most likely two scenarios. IMO maybe 40% boom, 40% bust, 20% some weird unforeseen outcome based on new climo. Just my 2 cents. I don’t have a crystal ball. 

Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

I think the Tug Hill area received somewhat less to right about average snowfall for 2015-16 depending on the exact area, and that winter seems to be a good comp for this upcoming Nino. I would guess there will be more mild/snowless periods than typical for that area in between big snow events. PSU can dig into the other analogs.

eta- Nov into Dec was quite warm relative to avg even up there, so the lack of snow during that period would have had some impact on seasonal totals.

[WxUSAF]

I seem to recall 15-16 was Albany’s least snowy year on record? Not an exact comp obviously, but shows that the synoptic snows at least can struggle up there in strong Ninos.

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I seem to recall 15-16 was Albany’s least snowy year on record? Not an exact comp obviously, but shows that the synoptic snows at least can struggle up there in strong Ninos.

Yeah same with Syracuse. I think that area is generally drier during a Nino wrt synoptic storms.

[CAPE]

Well after digging a bit more using AI, that winter seems to have been more suckass than I thought for the Tug hill region lol.

Because of the exceptionally powerful 2015–16 El Niño event, the lake-effect snow season started late and lacked its typical persistence. [1]

Estimated Snowfall Totals

While Montague can average between 200 and 300+ inches annually, estimates and nearby cooperative tracking stations put the broader town area's total roughly between 110 and 140 inches for the entire 2015–16 season: [1]

• Hooker (Hamlet within Montague): While Hooker holds legendary status for massive winters (and logged a whopping 339.3 inches much later during the 2024–25 season), it barely crossed the low triple-digits during the tracking span of this El Niño winter. [1, 2]
• Constableville 1.2 NW Station: Located just outside the Montague town line on the plateau, this official GHCN daily climate station wrapped up its main core monitoring period (Dec 1, 2015 – Feb 29, 2016) with just 96.97 inches of recorded snow. [1]