Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

models doing manufacturing physical reasons to shunt tho -

TBH, I hope it does setup right over the mid-South and we end up on the eastern periphery. You could bet we would get some EML plumes advecting in at times along with some MCS opportunities...but yeah that all may get shunted towards the mid-Atlantic 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ-BVyWRCWR/?igsh=MWdyeHVhZ3BjczRueg==
 

LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

Western Europe is now five of these nuclear synergistic heat bombs since 2003, compared to our zero spanning the same years

That being the case when there is a codified positive correlation tele connector between eastern North America western Europe

This is somewhat odd

[vortex95]

54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The heat and humidity is coming...buckle up, settle in, and enjoy. 

A less hot pattern would mean more tstms in NW flow w/ your REQUIRED EML!  LOL.  Be careful what you hope for!

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Western Europe is now five of these nuclear synergistic heat bombs since 2003, compared to our zero spanning the same years

That being the case when there is a codified positive correlation tele connector between eastern North America western Europe

This is somewhat odd

Our continent just seems too wide for the global wavelengths in summer to be able to get one of your Sonoran airmasses up here before the “ridge runs out”. Get the ridge more on our side and the Bermuda high going and then the airmass just becomes GoM soup and we thermodynamically are limited on the warming potential…but we make up for it with 97/77 type days.

We basically have to time it right with brief strong mixing like July 2011 when that prefrontal trough mixed out the dews during the morning and then the CAA lagged until evening so we had a 6hr window with torched mid levels, strong mixing, and downsloping.

And obviously any flow from the east side of our meridien is tainted too. 

[vortex95]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ-BVyWRCWR/?igsh=MWdyeHVhZ3BjczRueg==
 

LOL

Regarding the Instagram post and its content:
Whatever happen to just "heat wave?"  Ever notice that is not used anymore?  Marketing.  Change the lingo to sell it better, nothing more.

Also, attached the GFS 850 temp anomalies today and valid 7/2.  Just focus on the heat, and ignore cool wx for this time of year, as if all that matters is population where it is hot?  That's cherry-picking and blatant bias, never mind fear-mongering and only focusing on what is "bad."  Deplorable behavior for someone who has lots of followers and influence.

And what, the fact is gets very hot in the summer is somehow unusual?  It would be unusual for it *not* to get very hot at rimes, and some summers are hot all the way through, like 1980 and 1988.

Don't get me wrong, I like HHH wx a lot, but can it just BE?  Meaning can it occur w/ a million bells and whistles or finding meaning/prophecy of doom?  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Same here since this morning.. got 4 cloudflare 502 error message in past 10 minutes.  Says bad gateway and that the problem is with the host website 

@dendrite

It’s been an issue for about the past week . And no one answers when you ask 

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been an issue for about the past week . And no one answers when you ask 

Haven’t noticed any slowness until today

[HoarfrostHubb]

Next week looks typical summer.  80-85 around here.  My pool needs some heat.  Currently at 66F.  
 

this didn’t post for some reason.  Pool now at 68F.  Still not warm enough 

[Cyclone-68]

Wow the lag time on the board today is brutal 

[vortex95]

Something to keep in mind w/ the fcst upcoming heat and big ridge in the CONUS, and a good FYI b/c I have found the MSM and others had no concept of perspective and context, let alone wx history.

600 dm 500 mb height is often used a benchmark for record heat.  But it is *far* more common than one would think, just by RAOBs alone. Attached is a .txt list I got some years ago of all 600+ dm height for NAMR RAOBs.  It has occurred 199 times from 1957-2006 - hardly a rare occurrence overall.

In recent decades, we tend to see 600 dm height on model analyses and forecasts more b/c the resolution of the models has increased significantly, so that's not really an apples to apples comparison as to change in frequency over time.  RAOBs are in situ, directly measured, not model output.
 

Of note in the list:
604.5 dm Adak AK (ADK) July 1980
That high that far N?...wow.  But it makes sense, there was an intense heat wave/drought in the CONUS that summer, so upstream was also quite anomalous!  What kind of sigma deviation value would show up here I wonder?  You know, those 500 mb height values used by climate alarmists -- e.g. "a one in a 75 million year occurrence!"  Which is obviously bunk.  The wx in the real world doesn’t follow a Gaussian/normal distribution curve.  Extreme events are far more common in a non-Gaussian distribution that reflects the physical world we live  in.  This is a case of lying or conflating an issue using statistics.

602.6 dm Wallops Island VA (WAL) July 1986
Make sense, SEUS very hot that month.

609.0 dm Chatham MA (CHH) Sep 1989
This was the very strong ridge that flung Hurricane Hugo into SC, and the highest on record for Mid-Atlantic or NEUS in the period.  I do recall this ridge, and seeing Sable Island, Nova Scotia RAOB 600 dm. Somehow I missed the CHH value!  And it was *not* record heat anywhere on the E Coast.  Very tropical and warm for mid-Sep, but not that hot.

612.2 dm Peachtree City GA (FFC) Sep 1994
For a lower elevation location, relatively speaking, that is amazing.  Most 600+ dm values are found in high elevation sites. 

11 instances of 610.0 dm or higher in the data, enough to suggest that this is attainable w/o equipment error.
 

601.0 dm Whitehorse YK (YXY) Feb and Oct 1996
Again, that high that far N?, and one in Feb no less!  Goes to show it is not always a warm season phenomena, let alone associated w/ record warm temps (why heat done is misleading).  In early Feb 1996 there was record Arctic outbreak in the CONUS w/ Tower MN dropping to -60 F.
 

namr600hgt1.txt

[Torch Tiger]

51 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Regarding the Instagram post and its content:
Whatever happen to just "heat wave?"  Ever notice that is not used anymore?  Marketing.  Change the lingo to sell it better, nothing more.

Also, attached the GFS 850 temp anomalies today and valid 7/2.  Just focus on the heat, and ignore cool wx for this time of year, as if all that matters is population where it is hot?  That's cherry-picking and blatant bias, never mind fear-mongering and only focusing on what is "bad."  Deplorable behavior for someone who has lots of followers and influence.

And what, the fact is gets very hot in the summer is somehow unusual?  It would be unusual for it *not* to get very hot at rimes, and some summers are hot all the way through, like 1980 and 1988.

Don't get me wrong, I like HHH wx a lot, but can it just BE?  Meaning can it occur w/ a million bells and whistles or finding meaning/prophecy of doom?  

Hype = revenue.  not changing

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hype = revenue.  not changing

Not contesting that.  It still does not change that it is detrimental to the public b/c of misinformation or gross exaggeration, or the ethical and moral issues.

[Torch Tiger]

29 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Not contesting that.  It still does not change that it is detrimental to the public b/c of misinformation or gross exaggeration, or the ethical and moral issues.

fine but hype-clickbait isn't changing

[Torch Tiger]

First full week of July looking cool-ish

[OceanStWx]

7 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

wth is this. 

@OceanStWx

 

I don't know any specifics but it seems like an EM tried to issue a non-weather related message (like an AMBER alert or the like) and got it real wrong.

[Brewbeer]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Not contesting that.  It still does not change that it is detrimental to the public b/c of misinformation or gross exaggeration, or the ethical and moral issues.

lol at moral and ethical issues; moral or legal boundaries are fungible in our economic system

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

fine but hype-clickbait isn't changing

Joe Bastardi got rich off that with snowstorms  and winter weather fans in the late 1990s and 2000s.

[weatherwiz]

36 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't know any specifics but it seems like an EM tried to issue a non-weather related message (like an AMBER alert or the like) and got it real wrong.

hmmm well it is Colorado, maybe was trying to put an order in for edibles 

[Layman]

51 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

fine but hype-clickbait isn't changing

I'm sure AI will know to politely skip over all that and not "learn" from it 

We're going to end up with AIdiocracy 

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Joe Bastardi got rich off that with snowstorms  and winter weather fans in the late 1990s and 2000s.

Different time and can't compare to today.  The problem is everyone doing it now, and thinks they can get rich or a make living.  Pipe dreams as the piece of the pie is sliced so thin, there is little left for any individual.  It just becomes race to the bottom w/ more ridiculous claims and hype, and ppl do not know what to believe, and thus start tuning it all out.  How is that good for society as whole?  One can't deny the detrimental impacts here.  That's what I am pointing out.  I know how it is and how it will not change.

[vortex95]

10 minutes ago, Layman said:

I'm sure AI will know to politely skip over all that and not "learn" from it 

We're going to end up with AIdiocracy 

AI just add another layer.  Now it is easier than ever to create flashy content, and this floods the market even more. FB and LinkedIn are *loaded* w/ this this crap now, and it is spreading.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

First full week of July looking cool-ish

It looks 90-95 July 1-4. Then 80’s and humid after . SNE

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

First full week of July looking cool-ish

Hopefully cold, rainy, and foggy for the 4th. I don’t want any 250th anni fireworks BS going on around me.

Shut’em down 

[WxWatcher007]

35 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

AI just add another layer.  Now it is easier than ever to create flashy content, and this floods the market even more. FB and LinkedIn are *loaded* w/ this this crap now, and it is spreading.

It's a rough time for sure. Not sure how/if it can be fixed. 

[Brewbeer]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's a rough time for sure. Not sure how/if it can be fixed. 

AI will eventually “fix” the human problem

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

AI will eventually “fix” the human problem

[78Blizzard]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

First full week of July looking cool-ish

The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 project a cooler-than-average late summer for the Great Lakes and Northeast, with all 3 months cooler than normal Jul-Sep.  This is the opposite of what NOAA has for the Northeast.

[Ginx snewx]

COC!!

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Our continent just seems too wide for the global wavelengths in summer to be able to get one of your Sonoran airmasses up here before the “ridge runs out”. Get the ridge more on our side and the Bermuda high going and then the airmass just becomes GoM soup and we thermodynamically are limited on the warming potential…but we make up for it with 97/77 type days.

We basically have to time it right with brief strong mixing like July 2011 when that prefrontal trough mixed out the dews during the morning and then the CAA lagged until evening so we had a 6hr window with torched mid levels, strong mixing, and downsloping.

And obviously any flow from the east side of our meridien is tainted too. 

Yeah I've had a sentence floating around the internal monologue lately that sums up ...  "we seem to just be geologically incapable".   

I've been following heat waves since before the "synergistic heat wave" was identified ( recently decades) as a real track-able phenomenon, and since they have ... we've gotten our "heat waves" but ... I dunno - it really doesn't seem like we can do the synergy thing here.   

The wave spacing miss-alignment with the continental girth during seasonal contraction of  the r-wave lengths idea seems to be the best fit that I've seen, too.   Same.  I was thinking that very same thing, we just need some very rare/long return rate timing perhaps. Maybe it's 1::300 year deal here.  Or, it can't.  At this point it's been 23 years since France and we've seen 610 dm high ridge nodes recurring everywhere it seems except here.   Hell, Japan's had one or two.