Noah get the boat, the wet pattern begins. Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Have any of these stupid precip outlooks actually verified when they show above normal precip this year?  Has NOAA hired Bastardi for their precip forecasting?

 

I'm still holding to my late June derecho and trend toward wet weather.  It's still too early. 

Cansips has it turning wet, though that's a seasonal forecast.

[Weather Will]

WB June Can. Long range for the winter.  Hopefully just cold enough...

[Weather Will]

Where is Ji?  He usually opens an early winter prognostication thread by March.    it is time!!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

 

Boy would I love a -EPO in Super El Nino. That's probably the best combo. CPC is disregarding the CANSIPS completely in their seasonal outlook, and 1 year ago around this time CANSIPS had a large part of the Midwest/Great Lakes -4 to -6 for the month of July at 0.0 month lead and it ended up positive departure across the board. It did do well in lead the last 2 Winter's though, although severely underestimating the warmth in the Mountain West, which I don't think anything got actually.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Where is Ji?  He usually opens an early winter prognostication thread by March.    it is time!!!

I've been thinking about starting a thread but I just don't have high enough hopes for the Winter right now

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Boy would I love a -EPO in Super El Nino. That's probably the best combo. CPC is disregarding the CANSIPS completely in their seasonal outlook, and 1 year ago around this time CANSIPS had a large part of the Midwest/Great Lakes -4 to -6 for the month of July at 0.0 month lead and it ended up positive departure across the board. It did do well in lead the last 2 Winter's though, although severely underestimating the warmth in the Mountain West, which I don't think anything got actually.  

Any cases of an emerging El Nino with a hot summer, then a cold and wet winter?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Any cases of an emerging El Nino with a hot summer, then a cold and wet winter?

I know 2002 was dry. I don't think there are actually many cases of hot Summer's in El Nino. Something global is shifting around now, jet stream is lifting north. 

Edit: 2002 was above average

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Summer's of our most recent 2 Strong/Super El Nino's

2015 was strong +PDO

We are nothing like 1997 anymore

[CAPE]

Dry AF here. Watering does next to nothing. Where's Noah? Gonna need that boat (Ark) soon. The Biblical rains are surely coming.

[dailylurker]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Dry AF here. Watering does next to nothing. Where's Noah? Gonna need that boat (Ark) soon. The Biblical rains are surely coming.

This shit is so boring lol. Great for my business. No weather delays is a beautiful thing. I'd give up a few bucks for a couple days of good steady tropical rain. That would make a fun summer rain hike. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Dry AF here. Watering does next to nothing. Where's Noah? Gonna need that boat (Ark) soon. The Biblical rains are surely coming.

https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/2061545870441824660?s=46

[Weather Will]

Well, this looks all too familiar.....WB 18Z EURO AI total 15 day precipitation.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Told you it was a dry pattern. Imagine if it wasn't El Nino.  May is our cloudiest month, total clear sky days last month (23/31 or something) is a giveaway. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Told you it was a dry pattern. Imagine if it wasn't El Nino. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Some areas are dry in El Nino, some areas are wet. Our region is usually wetter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Sky was covered in chemtrail clouds today for the first time in a long time. I guess that means we'll go wetter in a few weeks to months. 

[anotherman]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Sky was covered in chemtrail clouds today for the first time in a long time. I guess that means we'll go wetter in a few weeks to months. 

Please tell me this is a joke.

[EastCoast NPZ]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Some areas are dry in El Nino, some areas are wet. Our region is usually wetter. 

And some areas are dry in La Nina, El Nino, and in El Nuetro.

[ravensrule]

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And some areas are dry in La Nina, El Nino, and in El Nuetro.

I can't imagine where you're talking about. 

[aldie 22]

Rare photo of chuck doing his research 

[nw baltimore wx]

28 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Rare photo of chuck doing his research 

Awww.  I love Chuck.

[WxUSAF]

Euro is the most “robust” for showers on Sunday and it’s like 0.25” on average? Can keeps getting kicked on anything besides dry NW flow. So no major heat at least?

[BlizzardNole]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is the most “robust” for showers on Sunday and it’s like 0.25” on average? Can keeps getting kicked on anything besides dry NW flow. So no major heat at least?

I think we are very dry through summer before finally turning to a wetter pattern in fall.  That's why I have given up on getting a lawn going (new construction home finished in March).  I will try again in September.  I do expect a warm, wet winter which would be helpful.

[WxUSAF]

25 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I think we are very dry through summer before finally turning to a wetter pattern in fall.  That's why I have given up on getting a lawn going (new construction home finished in March).  I will try again in September.  I do expect a warm, wet winter which would be helpful.

That’s my gut feeling as well. 

[high risk]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is the most “robust” for showers on Sunday and it’s like 0.25” on average? Can keeps getting kicked on anything besides dry NW flow. So no major heat at least?

The problem is that the front has trended faster, so it’s increasingly likely that it moves though during the unfavorable time of day. 

[yoda]

12z Euro showing a real return to summer starting middle of next week... upper 90s and low 100s