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Stormlover74
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Nibor
Nibor

Windy day.

rclab
rclab

There is always the blessed return of beauty in new life. Enjoy breathing in that life and hearing the sounds of the warm season …. At least …. until the first flake lands on your cheek and melts into

psv88
psv88

It’s 65 outside. Maybe see a doctor 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Big Euro and AI upgrade.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/ifs-cycle-50r1-aifsv2-live

A significant upgrade to ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), Cycle 50r1, has gone live today (12 May 2026) alongside an update to the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS v2).

Cycle 50r1 introduces a more consistent and integrated approach to forecasting the atmosphere’s interactions with the ocean through fully coupled data assimilation, and improvements to known issues with accurately forecasting sudden, heavy, localised rain. It also brings more advanced representation of waves and sea ice.

The update to the AIFS introduces, among other features, ECMWF’s first data-driven wave and snow cover forecasts.

Florian Pappenberger, Director-General of ECMWF, said: “This is an important upgrade for ECMWF and for everyone who relies on our forecasts. IFS Cycle 50r1 strengthens our physics-based forecasting system, including through fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice assimilation and new ocean and sea-ice capabilities.

"With AIFS v2, we are expanding its performance, bringing a new generation of AI forecasting into operation, building on ECMWF’s technical competence, operational expertise and data infrastructure. Together, these advances reflect ECMWF’s commitment to innovation and close co-development with our Member and Co-operating States in delivering better forecasts, increasing the value to society.”

Matthieu Chevallier, ECMWF’s Head of Forecast Evaluation, added: “The updates to these systems, being formally announced today, will together provide numerous benefits to users of our forecasts. Alongside the scientific and technical advances in coupled modelling and data assimilation, and innovation with AI techniques, we have responded to users’ feedback, for example, with new products. We look forward to hearing their reaction to the quality and accuracy of our forecasts, and on how it impacts their applications.”

Forecasting improvements

One of the most significant changes to the IFS introduced with Cycle 50r1 is a better representation of convective precipitation, which causes heavy rainfall and violent thunderstorms but is hard to predict because it occurs at smaller scales. The revised convection and cloud-microphysics scheme will reduce excessive stationary rainfall and, instead, represent more realistically how it moves from the ocean across the land.  

IFS users will also see the introduction of the new NEMO4-SI³ ocean and sea-ice model, bringing substantial improvements in forecasts and analysis over the marine areas, as well as over 40 new ocean and sea ice-related variables. Key improvements include a more accurate representation of how sea ice affects the power of waves and the interactions between waves and ocean currents, often at play in rougher seas. Other improvements for IFS include improved tropical upper-air temperature and wind forecasts, and improvements to temperature and humidity forecasts around the tropopause.

For the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), one of two Copernicus services operated by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission, the IFS update will enhance the atmospheric composition and greenhouse gas forecasts. The improvements range from the assimilated observations to aerosols and reactive gases, as well as enhanced input data on human-driven emissions. 

For AIFS, both the Single and Ensemble versions of the system are being upgraded to version two, with each introducing a new wave component. 

Eleven wave-related variables are being made available to users, enabling predictions, for example, of when we will experience rougher seas. In addition, the AIFS Single v2 wave component shows substantial improvement in the medium-range skill of wave forecasts compared to the physical model, IFS Cycle 50r1.

ECMWF’s first data-driven snow cover forecasts are also being introduced with this upgrade. Again, the AIFS Single v2 forecasts show improved performance compared to IFS Cycle 50r1 forecasts, with the predicted snow cover fraction closer to observations. 

Victoria Bennett, ECMWF's Head of User Services Section, said: “These new cycles bring improvements to the models and introduce new products that address requests from users. In addition, with IFS, we have now removed the duplication between the old “HRES” single forecast and the Ensemble control and introduced other minor technical updates to reduce complexity. We have worked closely with users during the testing period, and with their positive feedback, we are excited to be making the switch.”

All the upgrades to our systems are live with immediate effect.

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And the fv3

I'd rather they all hung around.  I personally don't think the RRFS is quite ready to solo in prime time.  At least we knew the inherent short comings in the existing soon to leave us models and could use them as tools.  

NAM always seemed superior to other guidance (most of the time) in nailing CAD and speed of mid level warming in snow to mix/rain scenarios.  Will miss that.

 

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

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63 / 48 clouds and showers shunted north for now.  Clouds coming in maybe some stray showers/light rain later. Wet Thursday 0.25 - 0.50.  The cut off trough ull slowly moves through and out Friday with late clearing but cool.  Moderation quickly to a much warmer pattern Sat (5/16) - beyond.  >80s Sat - Wed for many and perhaps some 90 degree readings on Mon/Tue.  After a transient front , ridge rebuilds and outside of onshore tenedency an overall warm to very warm period ensuing through the Memorial day weekend and the the week of may 26th.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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SACRUS

SACRUS

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Posted

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1956)
NYC: 89 (1956)
LGA: 89 (1956)
JFK: 82 (2004)


Lows:

EWR: 37 (1938)
NYC: 39 (1895)
LGA: 42 (2019)
JFK: 41 (2020)


Historical:

1866: A tornado destroyed a toll bridge near Barnet, VT. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1878: Record low temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 39 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1881: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 95 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)



1922: A mid-afternoon hailstorm dropped hailstones 0.5 inches in diameter at Montpelier, VT. Along the 550 yard wide and 3 to 4 mile long hail swath, ice laid 4 inches deep with local piles up to two feet deep. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1930 - A man was killed when caught in an open field during a hailstorm northwest of Lubbock TX. It was the first, and perhaps the only, authentic death by hail in U.S. weather records. (David Ludlum)

1961: A late season storm covered Cheyenne, WY with 10.3 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975: Severe thunderstorm winds lasting 20-30 minutes damaged over 90 of the 600 planes based at the Ft. Lauderdale International Airport. The FAA tower measured winds gusting to 101 mph. Tied down aircraft were ripped from their moorings. The roof of the terminal was slightly damaged, hail was reported and two inches of rain fell in an hour. Tennis-ball size hail fell at Wernersville, PA. Hail accumulated to a depth of 10 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

 

1980: An F3 tornado ripped directly through the center of Kalamazoo, Michigan, killing five people, injuring 79, leaving 1,200 homeless and causing $50 million in damage. The tornado passed directly over the American Bank, where a barograph reported a pressure drop of 0.59 inches.

1981 - A tornado 450 yards in width destroyed ninety percent of Emberson TX. People did not see a tornado, but rather a wall of debris. Homes were leveled, a man in a bathtub was hurled a quarter of a mile, and a 1500 pound recreational vehicle was hurled 500 yards. Miraculously no deaths occurred in the tornado. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front brought an end to the early season warm spell in the north central U.S., but not before the temperature at Sioux City IA soared to a record warm 95 degrees. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front gusted to 52 mph at Marais MI. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Rockford MN, and wind gusts to 75 mph at Belmond IA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Strong winds along a cold front ushering cold air into the northwestern U.S. gusted to 69 mph at Myton UT. Temperatures warmed into the 80s ahead of the cold front, as far north as Montana. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region during the afternoon and night. A thunderstorm at Killeen TX produced wind gusts to 95 mph damaging 200 helicopters at Fort Hood causing nearly 500 million dollars damage. Another thunderstorm produced softball size hail at Hodges TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from eastern Wyoming to northern Kansas, including seven in western Nebraska. Thunderstorms forming ahead of a cold front in the eastern U.S. spawned five tornadoes from northeastern North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms over southeast Louisiana deluged the New Orleans area with four to eight inches of rain between 7 AM and Noon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: This outbreak produced tornadoes extending from the Mississippi River near Burlington, Iowa, to the west of Bloomington, Illinois. Two violent tornadoes, each ranked at F4 intensity, were reported. The first tornado traveled 60 miles from near Fort Madison, Iowa, to the southeast of Galesburg, Illinois producing over $10 million damage. The town of Raritan, Illinois was hit the hardest. The second violent tornado traveled 7 miles across Fulton County from Ipava to Lewistown, Illinois producing $6 million damage. Another strong tornado took a 25-mile path across parts of Fulton, Mason, and Tazewell Counties. The storms also produced softball-size hail south and northwest of Macomb in Illinois. Five men were injured in Lawrence County, Indiana when lightning struck one of them and traveled to the other four. There were 184 reports of severe weather, including over three dozen tornadoes.

 

2001: Two brothers hiking with their family in the Zion National Park in Utah were swept away when flash flooding suddenly struck after a burst of heavy rain. The youngsters were ahead of the rest of their family when they came to a part of the trail that was underwater. They were swept away as they attempted the cross the flooded part of the trail.

2002: (12th-13th) flash flooding occurred on almost every watercourse in MO’s Iron County; $5.5 million damage. Many people trapped in cars by flood waters. Near Ironton, a man crossing Stouts Creek by foot to rescue his dogs was swept away/drowned. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2008: Shreveport-Bossier, Louisiana: Torrential rainfall breaks several records, including the most rain to fall in a 20-minute interval and the most rainfall in a 180-minute period. More than 10 inches of rain deluged the Shreveport area, flooding at least 125 homes. The National Weather Service reports 4.43 inches fell in one hour braking the old record of 3.16 inches. (Ref. WxDoctor)

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bluewave

bluewave

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6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nam had central NJ getting up to 50 inches the day before the storm.

Yeah, the last Nam upgrade was in March of 2017. It nailed the January 2016 event. Sad to see the SPC HREF go as its ensemble max snowfall was actually pretty good with the split bands west and east of NYC and 20”+ amounts for the February 2026 event.
 

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/review-of-jan-2016-blizzard-preliminary-snow-totals-validates-dc-measurement
The preliminary Central Park measurement will be adjusted upward to 27.5 inches, which will become an all-time snowfall record for New York City when certified by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. A communication error between the weather forecast office in Upton, New York, and the Central Park Conservancy, which volunteers to take official snow measurements in Central Park, led to an inaccurate preliminary total of 26.8 inches. The snow team found the mistake when reviewing the Conservancy’s logbook.

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