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Following today's balmy temperatures, it will turn cooler tomorrow with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 60s. The weekend will be even cooler with highs in the lower 50s on Saturday and middle and upper 50s on Sunday.

Periods of rain are likely on Saturday into Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 0.50"-1.50" with a few locally higher amounts are likely across the region.

Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -2.74 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.985 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.4° (1.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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Classic onshore flow pattern with waves of low pressure bringing rainfall as they move through. Tomorrow could have afternoon temperatures struggling to get out of  the low 40s with clouds and rain. Blocking pattern set to continue right into May.

IMG_6155.thumb.png.04fe373e5cd8fc5792eba00758c1cb4b.png

IMG_6159.thumb.png.efcf211bc1eb05d0adf442b70d056da6.png

IMG_6161.thumb.png.a1d8752941c2bc9917a2e6b9d410564a.png

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Classic onshore flow pattern with waves of low pressure bringing rainfall as they move through. Tomorrow could have afternoon temperatures struggling to get out of  the low 40s with clouds and rain. Blocking pattern set to continue right into May.

IMG_6155.thumb.png.04fe373e5cd8fc5792eba00758c1cb4b.png

IMG_6159.thumb.png.efcf211bc1eb05d0adf442b70d056da6.png

IMG_6161.thumb.png.a1d8752941c2bc9917a2e6b9d410564a.png

How joyous. 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Classic onshore flow pattern with waves of low pressure bringing rainfall as they move through. Tomorrow could have afternoon temperatures struggling to get out of  the low 40s with clouds and rain. Blocking pattern set to continue right into May.

IMG_6155.thumb.png.04fe373e5cd8fc5792eba00758c1cb4b.png

IMG_6159.thumb.png.efcf211bc1eb05d0adf442b70d056da6.png

IMG_6161.thumb.png.a1d8752941c2bc9917a2e6b9d410564a.png

Precisely what I was concerned with for the “spring” on LI

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22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We were due for some crappy weather.   Still a tight gradient tomorrow b/w alot of rain and little rain...mainly NE of the city

This whole spring has been crappy on LI. We had a few days of nice weather.  
There is a big difference in the weather in Morristown NJ and the weather in central Long Island.  
The wind is something new.  Windy every day it seems

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