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After the heat in April 2002, the temp didnt exceed >70 again till May 5th.
After the heat in April 2009 it stayed basically near avg utill May 8th
After the  heat in April 2023 it stayed above normal as a whole overall that month

 

EWR:
April DeP
2002: +2.6
2009:  +1
2023: +4.6

 

EWR
May Dep
2002: -2.4
2009: +0.1
2023:  +0.2

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

If this is true, then the last part of April is going to feature Top 5 record cold. I don't see it happening. April is going to finish with at least a mean temperature of 57. I mean, 2023 ended at 57.6, and that last part of April was really cold. Warmer than normal April should be locked at 100% at this point.

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the trough is east of us, probably not much which isn’t good either since many of us are back in a drought. 

We are seeing elements of the spring 2023 pattern with how early and strongly this El Niño is developing. That year had a shift to stronger blocking in late April following early record 90 warmth. Notice the 2 matching dates from 2023 and how close in time the record warmth was. 

So it’s possible that this week will turn out to be the warmest we see for a while. But rainfall has been generally disappointing. Maybe the developing STJ can allow for some better rainfall opportunities especially by the early summer like we saw in 2023. 
 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1893-05-01 through 2026-04-16DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

4/13 92 in 2023 86 in 1977 84 in 2018+
4/14 93 in 2023 89 in 2026 88 in 2022+
4/15 91 in 2026 88 in 1960 87 in 1941
4/16 92 in 2002 90 in 2026 89 in 1896

 

IMG_6128.thumb.gif.d2c6fefc49fd9a94d24fd4c7c9fe7c4c.gif

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