Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    19,013
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

Recommended Posts

Temperatures approached and reached record levels across parts of the region yet again today. Central Park registered a high of 89°. Newark reached 90°. Daily records were set at Atlantic City (91°), Baltimore (91°), Norfolk (92°), and Philadelphia (91°).

Readings will return to the upper 70s to around 80° tomorrow, upper 60s on Saturday and upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday. A sharp cold shot is possible early next week.

Generally dry conditions will also persist through at least Saturday. Some showers or thundershowers are possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +1.51 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.115 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, MANDA said:

Our area might get lucky with something later on tonight.  Further east chances less.

Picked up .24” from lasts nights stuff.  I did sprinkle the grass seed earlier so I am not overly confident we get anything later.

 

 

 

Nothing from last night to my knowledge.
The Tuesday night line went all around me with a gap over Sparta.  I only recorded a trace.
 

Meanwhile, western PA and up through Buffalo, Finger Lakes and the upstate is having it's third night in row of a pretty solid line of storms.  No rain issues there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


After the heat in April 2002, the temp didnt exceed >70 again till May 5th.
After the heat in April 2009 it stayed basically near avg utill May 8th
After the  heat in April 2023 it stayed above normal as a whole overall that month

 

EWR:
April DeP
2002: +2.6
2009:  +1
2023: +4.6

 

EWR
May Dep
2002: -2.4
2009: +0.1
2023:  +0.2

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

If this is true, then the last part of April is going to feature Top 5 record cold. I don't see it happening. April is going to finish with at least a mean temperature of 57. I mean, 2023 ended at 57.6, and that last part of April was really cold. Warmer than normal April should be locked at 100% at this point.

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This time of year it’s only a matter of when and how much we’re paying for a summer like stretch like this. 

I am curious to see how much rain we actually get vs just low clouds and onshore flow. 

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the trough is east of us, probably not much which isn’t good either since many of us are back in a drought. 

We are seeing elements of the spring 2023 pattern with how early and strongly this El Niño is developing. That year had a shift to stronger blocking in late April following early record 90 warmth. Notice the 2 matching dates from 2023 and how close in time the record warmth was. 

So it’s possible that this week will turn out to be the warmest we see for a while. But rainfall has been generally disappointing. Maybe the developing STJ can allow for some better rainfall opportunities especially by the early summer like we saw in 2023. 
 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1893-05-01 through 2026-04-16DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

4/13 92 in 2023 86 in 1977 84 in 2018+
4/14 93 in 2023 89 in 2026 88 in 2022+
4/15 91 in 2026 88 in 1960 87 in 1941
4/16 92 in 2002 90 in 2026 89 in 1896

 

IMG_6128.thumb.gif.d2c6fefc49fd9a94d24fd4c7c9fe7c4c.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If this is true, then the last part of April is going to feature Top 5 record cold. I don't see it happening. April is going to finish with at least a mean temperature of 57. I mean, 2023 ended at 57.6, and that last part of April was really cold. Warmer than normal April should be locked at 100% at this point.

Personally, I think the modeling may be somewhat too cool for the second half of April, but the ECMWF weeklies show cooler than normal conditions for the April 20-30 period. In addition, a  strong cold shot lies ahead for early next week. One or two days will likely to see readings approach or reach 10° below normal. Outside NYC, some areas could experience a late-season freeze.

In mathematical terms, one would not need near record cold to reach the figure from the guidance (overnight the guidance ticked up a few tenths of a degree).  If one took all the readings to date and assumed that the remainder of the month would average normal, one would come up with a 56.6° mean. Normal for April 17-30 is 56.8°. Since 2020, five years have had a cooler April 17-30.

As for 2023, April 1-16 had a mean temperature of 59.9°. That was much warmer than April 1-16, 2026. This year's mean temperature was 56.4°. 

Finally, the probability is based on a normal distribution. Part of the region under the curve is still below normal at this point in time based on the standard deviation. Although I would be quite shocked were April to wind up cooler than normal overall, that doesn't mean that a statistical probability of such an outcome doesn't exist, even if it's low. The stated probability means that a warmer than normal April is very likely. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...