Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[Layman]

17 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Somehow managed normal snows that winter. April snow events helped. Feb storm was fun too. 

I thought 2015 was that winter of non-stop snows after January 1st.  Am I mistaking that?  Was it Christmas 2014 when it was 70 degrees and then January 2015 when the snows started?  I thought it was 2015 into 2016 but my memory sucks with these things...

[rimetree]

10 minutes ago, Layman said:

I thought 2015 was that winter of non-stop snows after January 1st.  Am I mistaking that?  Was it Christmas 2014 when it was 70 degrees and then January 2015 when the snows started?  I thought it was 2015 into 2016 but my memory sucks with these things...

Yeah, that '14-'15. Went from epic to middling the next year.

[forkyfork]

warm and rainy

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True ratter here....wow, just about futility around Chris out in Greenfield.

Worst winter I’ve had in my 17 years here.  Toaster plugged in next to the bathtub by mid February that year.

[forkyfork]

46 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Worst winter I’ve had in my 17 years here.  Toaster plugged in next to the bathtub by mid February that year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Worst winter I’ve had in my 17 years here.  Toaster plugged in next to the bathtub by mid February that year.

I was so frustrated because I called that blizzard down to within just a few days during the fall, but expected it to get up here....just brutal.

[MarcmmKU]

On 9/10/2026 at 8:21 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I kind of feel dirty for saying this, but December doesn't look awful on the EURO....it starts that ridge up by HB, near where the basin-wide composite has it, before it slides ESE and presses as the season evolves. January looks the most hostile IMHO, especially for the coast.

Pretty damn near climo snowfall...almost looks like the Feb storm track.

It isnt hard for the coast to reach near normal snow in December because December has such bad climo for snow in general. Would take NYC just one 3-5" storm to reach normal for December. That's possible even in an utterly hostile climo. Makes sense that northern NE is far below normal for Dec though.

[MarcmmKU]

On 9/11/2026 at 4:54 PM, George001 said:

The issue I have regarding optimism for this winter is the more fruitful super El Niño analogs are still AN to well AN temp and slightly BN snow. A middle ground solution between the best case analogs and worst case would still be a ratter. I don’t see a path to a good winter with super El Niño, I see a path to a non ratter, but an actual good winter no.

I think we're all more or less on the same page about that one. A bad outcome would be historically bad. The best case possible outcome would likely still be a BN snow winter. No one north of Philly say is getting AN snow.

[bristolri_wx]

12 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think we're all more or less on the same page about that one. A bad outcome would be historically bad. The best case possible outcome would likely still be a BN snow winter. No one north of Philly say is getting AN snow.

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow.

It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average.

Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow.

It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average.

Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

Yea, parts of SE MA were above normal in 2016.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[MarcmmKU]

2 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow.

It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average.

Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

There's not much to work with here. I think Feb-March will be a better window perhaps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MarcmmKU said:

There's not much to work with here. I think Feb-March will be a better window perhaps.

I don't think December will be representative of the balance of the season.

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow.

It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average.

Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

Latitude can help.  January 2023 was +8.8, warmest for that month in 28 winters, but had 29.9" snow, 9.7" AN.  The 4 months DJFM ran +4.7 with each month AN - Feb closest at +1.5 (and least snowy of the 4).  The snow season total was 101.2" (avg currently 88.4") and 96.3" came during those months, 123% of average.

That said, the only very strong Nino since moving here (2015-16) was our worse snow winter, 48.2".

[weathafella]

I think warm and wet should be the default forecast for the upcoming winter.  However, unlike the lowest snow winters which tended to be low qpf, there will be snow imho ranging from 50-80% of normal.  It should be quite stormy but the majority of the storms will probably be wet.  However as others have mentioned, it takes 1-2 big events with just enough cold to allow snow to bring totals close to normal hence the 80% ceiling.

[forkyfork]

what if there's never just enough cold because of the strongest el nino in history

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what if there's never just enough cold because of the strongest el nino in history

What if there is blocking and a negative epo ?

[Ginx snewx]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What if there is blocking and a negative epo ?

I

 

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What if there is blocking and a negative epo ?

Lol great comeback Tony. Wet seems a lock white well it is winter.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

What if there is blocking and a negative epo ?

you aren't getting a negative epo. blocking in a nino this strong just means a bunch of well placed rainstorms

[Prismshine Productions]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

60-66" at 10:1 not including March and April?

Shit I might actually squeak out a seasonal (75" at my elevation)

 

 

 

[stadiumwave]

JAMSTEC Updated

2m Temp

 

Precip

 

SST

 

[Snowcrazed71]

On 9/13/2026 at 10:46 AM, forkyfork said:

warm and rainy

Nice to see your fresh take on a new season. 

[Snowcrazed71]

10 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what if there's never just enough cold because of the strongest el nino in history

What if? Well...at least q-Schmegma loved your comment

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what if there's never just enough cold because of the strongest el nino in history

Not happening at this latitude.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not happening at this latitude.

He trolls.  Fully expect at least 1 KU. Could be the busiest season with extremely tough forecasts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He trolls.  Fully expect at least 1 KU. Could be the busiest season with extremely tough forecasts.

I'm more confident of a KU for the mid atl than I am here...the pressing of the Canadian ridge is a concern.

[weatherwiz]

12 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

JAMSTEC Updated

2m Temp

 

Precip

 

That is an awfully pathetic look. Is there a global shot for that? I wonder if much of the Arctic cold will end up being displaced on the other side of the hemisphere. Going to take some well-timed airmasses here to really have a good chance to cash in

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not happening at this latitude.

mm  ...not intending to be involved in any back and forth.   I'm not sure that's exactly impossible just hearing the immediate binary exchange there. Heh. 

Given the empirical setting of Earth ..., we have to objectively be open to a notion that extreme results may be preferentially warm. 

That almost seems passively comedic put that way... I mean, just because of the nature of having something like a "warmest ever ENSO" taking place over top a CC canvas.  Perhaps trampoline is apropos. 

I was just mentioning to Chris over in the ENSO thread ..the synergistic product cannot really be ascertained.  *However*, the probability for that sort of thing, and on which side of the mean that is more likely, can certainly be intuitive.

You and I have set up some pathways to getting a snow this year.  Those are still valid. I like the hangover N. Pac idea - although the recent PDO tells me the patttern biases may be changing - 'nother headache.  Regardless, that's among the less likely outcomes. Given the leading and in situ circumstances the warmer one are weighted.  Tough call - don't want to evacuate the probability either because patterns tend to "try" to slip or regress as a real observed phenomenon.  You don't just escape and dust off hands.  Doesn't work that way. So yeah... that's why I don't mind the pathway.. 

I could also see this year with something like a STJ that aligns farther N of canonical due to the fact that as has been papered by multiple sources...the westerly bands/jets have been moving N with the CC over recent decades.  That immediately assumes a warmer southern tier.. and flooding and rains... with the band of winter shenanigans shifted

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  ...not intending to be involved in any back and forth.   I'm not sure that's exactly impossible just hearing the immediate binary exchange there. Heh. 

Given the empirical setting of Earth ..., we have to objectively be open to a notion that extreme results may be preferentially warm. 

That almost seems passively comedic put that way... I mean, just because of the nature of having something like a "warmest ever ENSO" taking place over top a CC canvas.  Perhaps trampoline is apropos. 

I was just mentioning to Chris over in the ENSO thread ..the synergistic product cannot really be ascertained.  *However*, the probability for that sort of thing, and on which side of the mean that is more likely, can certainly be intuitive.

You and I have set up some pathways to getting a snow this year.  Those are still valid. I like the hangover N. Pac idea - although the recent PDO tells me the patttern biases may be changing - 'nother headache.  Regardless, that's among the less likely outcomes. Given the leading and in situ circumstances the warmer one are weighted.  Tough call - don't want to evacuate the probability either because patterns tend to "try" to slip or regress as a real observed phenomenon.  You don't just escape and dust off hands.  Doesn't work that way. So yeah... that's why I don't mind the pathway.. 

I could also see this year with something like a STJ that aligns farther N of canonical due to the fact that as has been papered by multiple sources...the westerly bands/jets have been moving N with the CC over recent decades.  That immediately assumes a warmer southern tier.. and flooding and rains... with the band of winter shenanigans shifted

I don't have an issue with the possibility of an awful winter, sure, but he used the word "never"....sorry, but that is an impossibility around here. Terd season, okay...but snowless? Nope-

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is an awfully pathetic look. Is there a global shot for that? I wonder if much of the Arctic cold will end up being displaced on the other side of the hemisphere. Going to take some well-timed airmasses here to really have a good chance to cash in

Good point, I hadn't noticed that...it's actually like +4F.