Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Strong is a lock I think.

Yes.

[Typhoon Tip]

could be worse ... 44 years ago today, NYC-BOS were in the later stages of an April blizzard. 

[LSC97wxnut]

Still snowing in the heavier bursts, but not quite hard enough get a coating on anything.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

could be worse ... 44 years ago today, NYC-BOS were in the later stages of an April blizzard. 

I think the worst outcome is 36F snow like I had earlier. I’ll take an April blizzard.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Sun was out, but now getting another good burst.  Exactly 1”  on the car when I drove the kiddo to school. 

[LSC97wxnut]

Of course 5 minutes later it starts pouring cat paws and that gets a few white spots to show up.

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Sun was out, but now getting another good burst.  Exactly 1”  on the car when I drove the kiddo to school. 

stopped for a bit but started back up.. we rip.. everything whitened up

[Typhoon Tip]

The modeling looks like the key 3.4 region rises to just under +1.5 toward this next Xmas.   Makes sense I suppose ... El Nino is Spanish for "Christ child" and is given to the name of the phenomenon for a reason; the canonical time of year for it to occur.  

Anyway, 1.5 is not super this or even very strong that.   Where is this extremeness coming from ?   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Another burst of moderate with graupel mixed in.  Pavement coated up again. 
Probably finish with about 1.25”  31°

Over performer.      

[mahk_webstah]

Not enjoying this

[LSC97wxnut]

Sheeh... I want to say it's 1/4S+ in this burst.  Just pouring dendrites.

[dendrite]

30.5° -SN

Decent dendritic aggregates

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The modeling looks like the key 3.4 region rises to just under +1.5 toward this next Xmas.   Makes sense I suppose ... El Nino is Spanish for "Christ child" and given to the name of the phenomenon for a reason; the canonical time of year for it to occur.  

Anyway, 1.5 is not super this or even very strong that.   Where is this extremeness coming from ?   

1.5, even if not strong, is still notable. In the last 77 years, we've only had 10 events that cleared 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI (only 4 of these, in bold, cleared 2.0 on both - the threshold for super):

1957-58

1965-66

1972-73

1982-83

1986-88 (this was a double year el nino, which unlike the others, peaked in the summer of 1987)

1991-92

1997-98

2009-10

2015-16

2023-24

[kdxken]

Was snowing to beat the band in southborough. Coated everything. 

 

 

[LSC97wxnut]

Not bad for 4/7..

[dendrite]

29.8° SN

Poundtown now

[GCWarrior]

Driving to work over the Berkshires was horrible.  Some towns have packed it in with the sand and salt.  If only my car was powered by expletives!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Lol, +SN now.  
 

 

[dendrite]

Trying to enjoy this last snow until Nov ‘27

[Brewbeer]

snowy ride down the pike to get to work, car covered

[Great Snow 1717]

Snowing in Methuen..

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1.5, even if not strong, is still notable. In the last 77 years, we've only had 10 events that cleared 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI (only 4 of these, in bold, cleared 2.0 on both - the threshold for super):

1957-58

1965-66

1972-73

1982-83

1986-88 (this was a double year el nino, which unlike the others, peaked in the summer of 1987)

1991-92

1997-98

2009-10

2015-16

2023-24

By standard non-relative ONI convention, the strength index denotes 1.5 as the cut off for "strong"  

As I said, the modeling ( per CPC ) presently shows a cluster mean  < than 1.5  (... granted, it's rising when the graph cuts off at the end of OND, only slowly). 

The problem is, RONI is a very necessary method for assessing how the ENSO modes might integrate/couple with the surrounding dispersion into the mid latitude pattern.   It is less integrating, due to CC, for the purpose of discussion.  But it's also not absolute... it's just an assessment tool.

Those ENSO modes back before ~20 years ago took place in enough of a different global environment that a more linear approach was a better predictor.  This is why the Relative ONI was constructed, because as the climate change accelerates ( frankly ) all these indices are either going to get suss or are already so.

Anyway, CPC model mean rises to +1.3 or +1.4 but unfortunately the outlook cuts off before we know if mid winter rises beyond 1.5 ( probably so, just based on the trajectory of the graphical mean).  However, laboring to 1.5, doing so during the Relative ONI methodology arm of a very coherent CC acceleration, doesn't smack as strong or super in the end hemispheric coherence.   

I think there's some excitement seeking - like another crowd emergent motif. Sometimes it just hits at the right timing, and it's vastly over popularized.    It may in fact go on to rise to 2.8 ...becoming something special, but I wanna know what are the mathematical/analytic reasons.

[DomNH]

Pounding aggies. 

[ineedsnow]

This is wild its been dumping the last hour!!   still going 

[DomNH]

Heaviest of the season? 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

This is wild its been dumping the last hour!!   still going 

You must live in the greatest climo spot in the region  

Somehow always able to pull off accumulating snow. Like its mostly sunny here right now and you're ripping snow. There could be like 3 separate snow showers moving through the region, two of them happen to get you and somehow drop 1.5". 

You also always seem to get crushed with thunderstorms. 

the weather gods certainly love that area

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

This is wild its been dumping the last hour!!   still going 

1.5” unslanted?

[Typhoon Tip]

looks like sun for an hour along the Pike

[Great Snow 1717]

31 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Snowing in Methuen..

Heavy snow with great snow growth in Methuen.

[dendrite]

30.7° SN

1.2” and counting