2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, high risk said:

No, I actually did mean 2011 when there were destructive tornadoes in western Massachusetts. 

Ah that day was legit. I remember watching the radar and was quite impressed. That event is proof positive we can get several major tornadoes on the same day in the northeast and mid atlantic.

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, high risk said:

   June 1, 2011 also comes to mind when looking at this setup.   You're absolutely correct that a Day 6 outlook for this part of the country is a rare thing, and there certainly is high end potential.    Verbatim, I think that the overnight solutions would really favor New England for the greatest potential, but we'll see how the synoptic evolve over the next few days.

When I posted, I thought of it this way, in a overall synoptic sense, you don't track a 990 mb or deeper sfc low across southern Ontario/Quebec this time of year, and *not* have something big happen convectively!  What that is exactly is and where?  Way too early, but all the main pieces are there, so that's the first step.  Work from there.

What is really cool now is that modelling and knowledge have come to the point we now can reasonably see high-end/record-setting events potential well in advance.  The first time I really took l note of this was a couple days before the Oct 29-30, 2011 snowstorm.  I noticed how cold the short-range ensembles were showing the 850 mb temps, and I said, "this is going to be epic/really bad," and look what happened.  Then a year later, we saw what the ECMWF was doing w/ Sandy (even before the system was named Sandy!) 9 days out, and again, look what happened!

Now we had advanced enough to see high-end svr convective potential days 4-8.

From a wx passion standpoint, it's really cool to know such things in advance now.  Growing up, I recall the uncertainty factor seemed always so high, and so many surprises (snowstorms over-performing was a biggie).  And from a societal POV, us knowing ahead of time is a tremendous benefit so we can prepare for them and mitigate impacts.
 

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You mean June 1, 2012? The moderate risk day that almost went full gang busters?

June 1, 2011 was the New England tor event w/ the EF3 Springfield-Monson MA.  This is the last high-end tor event for New England,  About every 10-15 years New England gets a high-end tor event, so one could say, "they're due!" 

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ah that day was legit. I remember watching the radar and was quite impressed. That event is proof positive we can get several major tornadoes on the same day in the northeast and mid atlantic.

I'm originally from just NW of BOS, and the biggest thing I recall locally from that 6/1/11 was the nasty +CGs coming out of the supercell anvils overhead.  The storm cores were 30 mi to my W.  Don't see that too often in New England!

Then another supercell just missed me in the evening that crushed BOS. Here is video (not mine) taken about 10 mi to my N in Lowell MA. This is telltale supercell lightning.  Very frequent, quick flickering pulses in the upper part of the CB. You can actually see short cloud-to-cloud bolts at times, known in chaser slang as, "anvil zits!"

 

[Nomz]

Since I'm back home in Boston, I've mostly been following our weather, but I wanted to stop by here. Obviously, insanely potent jet for this time of year, with 100+ kt on Wednesday over the Midwest and nearly 100kt as it takes on a negative tilt on Thursday over NE, both per 00z euro. The GooFuS solution favors you all with the trough swinging down a little bit more and overspreading the region with 40-50kt flow, which is good for this time of year. It should be noted that with these super-fast (speed and translation) punching jets, you don't need to be right in the centroid to see good storms. Deep-layer shear should be pretty good due to the strength of the jet, although it remains to be seen whether the LLJ and associated SRH will reach down to MA. Attached is a model sounding at BWI at 18z from the 00z GFS. 41 EBWD supportive of supercells, but, as you can see, it's mostly speed shear with no real turning with height due to a very modest 850mb jet. CAPE is skinny on this sounding in particular, but I wouldn't worry, as many others were 1000-1500+, and globals tend to underestimate thermos anyways. We will have to wait for the SVWX king, the NAM, to bring us the goods. 

[dailylurker]

Crickets in here. Models don't look super interesting for today. Hrrr develops a line of storm over DC and moves east. It looks pretty strong down near oc. It has the line coming through the lowlands around 9pm. I love a nice evening storm. Hopefully everyone gets a good soaking. NAM is congrats PA line and north.

[Eskimo Joe]

46 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Crickets in here. Models don't look super interesting for today. Hrrr develops a line of storm over DC and moves east. It looks pretty strong down near oc. It has the line coming through the lowlands around 9pm. I love a nice evening storm. Hopefully everyone gets a good soaking. NAM is congrats PA line and north.

Looks like a Delmarva special today 

[TSSN+]

51 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Crickets in here. Models don't look super interesting for today. Hrrr develops a line of storm over DC and moves east. It looks pretty strong down near oc. It has the line coming through the lowlands around 9pm. I love a nice evening storm. Hopefully everyone gets a good soaking. NAM is congrats PA line and north.

Could be a decent storm day. Looks like could put a damper on the White House ufc event lol 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Crickets in here. Models don't look super interesting for today. Hrrr develops a line of storm over DC and moves east. It looks pretty strong down near oc. It has the line coming through the lowlands around 9pm. I love a nice evening storm. Hopefully everyone gets a good soaking. NAM is congrats PA line and north.

       I'm still pretty bullish on today, especially for those east of Route 15.    I'll be watching dew point this afternoon closely, as a number of models really mix out for a while and lower the dews significantly.      That said, I'm not sure that I buy it to the extent that some guidance has most guidance recovers moisture ahead of development, and shear will be very good later today.    If moisture really does mix out for a while, the threat will then be more focused east of the Potomac.

[high risk]

4 hours ago, Nomz said:

Since I'm back home in Boston, I've mostly been following our weather, but I wanted to stop by here. Obviously, insanely potent jet for this time of year, with 100+ kt on Wednesday over the Midwest and nearly 100kt as it takes on a negative tilt on Thursday over NE, both per 00z euro. The GooFuS solution favors you all with the trough swinging down a little bit more and overspreading the region with 40-50kt flow, which is good for this time of year. It should be noted that with these super-fast (speed and translation) punching jets, you don't need to be right in the centroid to see good storms. Deep-layer shear should be pretty good due to the strength of the jet, although it remains to be seen whether the LLJ and associated SRH will reach down to MA. Attached is a model sounding at BWI at 18z from the 00z GFS. 41 EBWD supportive of supercells, but, as you can see, it's mostly speed shear with no real turning with height due to a very modest 850mb jet. CAPE is skinny on this sounding in particular, but I wouldn't worry, as many others were 1000-1500+, and globals tend to underestimate thermos anyways. We will have to wait for the SVWX king, the NAM, to bring us the goods. 

              The synoptics definitely scream big event for someone, but the sounding you showed highlights the possible fail mechanism here.   The strong mid-level flow develops a sharp lee trough on the east side of the Appalachians early in the day which blasts across the Mid-Atlantic by lunchtime.   We then downslope big time ahead of the cold front.    That's why there is no directional shear in that sounding - the low-level flow has shifted to westerly.       Still plenty of time for sure, though, to sort out the synoptic details.

 

[wxmeddler]

On 6/12/2026 at 11:45 PM, Random Chaos said:

Saw two separate storm reports of 83mph winds just south of US50 through the Annapolis area. Looked like the main cell went just south of the 50 corridor from Parole to the Bay Bridge. I’m just north of that and didn’t get anything severe level, but lost power maybe 5 minutes ahead of the storm - based on outaged 2-3 substations on Broadneck probably all lost power, like a tree (or trees) down nesr the naval academy or along St Margaret’s Rd. Where the feed lines for the substations go.

This is an issue with MADIS. The 83 mph gust is from a sonic anemometer on top of the Bay Bridge. That is the first report. The second 83 mph report in Parole is false, it’s due to a bug that duplicates the Bay Bridge sensor at SHA headquarters in Parole. The lay/lon is wrong in MADIS. The 75 mph gust is from a buoy at the mouth of the Severn.

[Kmlwx]

Mesoanalysis showing strong CAPE tongue building into the areas east of Frederick or so. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Mesoanalysis showing strong CAPE tongue building into the areas east of Frederick or so. 

If we get a bit more clearing then I’m feeling it today. Last week I got back to back days of legit severe storms. One of which was stronger than anything in the past couple years. Something to remember from both days is some CAMs were anemic the day of, so I’m not too worried about them. Additionally, both days last week produced that in spite of no shear. 

[NorthArlington101]

Mesoanalysis showing strong CAPE tongue building into the areas east of Frederick or so. 

Rumor is that we are perhaps getting a bump to ENH next outlook. Guess we’ll see.

[Kmlwx]

As @high risk indicated I am watching dewpoints like a hawk. The HRRR really mixes things out which it is prone to do - but even some models that keep things moist don't produce much today. We'll see - but I still think somebody is in for decent storms. 

[Eskimo Joe]

30 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Mesoanalysis showing strong CAPE tongue building into the areas east of Frederick or so. 

Yea buddy!

[SnowenOutThere]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea buddy!

Interesting how tight the gradient is between Louden county and the DC border. Do you think it’ll fill in west or no? Visual sat shows some clearing. 

[Kmlwx]

It seems no enhanced with the 1630z outlook. 

[wxmeddler]

Definitely a plume across Central MD. Though it seems lower dews are just above the surface. The Layhill station recently gusted to 25 mph which coincided with a dew point drop to 63. Back up to 67 now.

[high risk]

52 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

As @high risk indicated I am watching dewpoints like a hawk. The HRRR really mixes things out which it is prone to do - but even some models that keep things moist don't produce much today. We'll see - but I still think somebody is in for decent storms. 

       Yeah, the HRRR says that parts of our area will have dew points in the upper 50s within the next 2 hours, and I'm very skeptical of that.     This is why the HRRR initiates convection later and further east.   If it's wrong, storms should initiate somewhere along the Route 15 corridor.

[SnowenOutThere]

Hmm, took a look at the mesoanalysis page and I’m still on the train of storms today could be nasty, but I have some concerns about initiation. I did a hand analysis of the SPC page and evidently the pre frontal axis is located along route 15. Meanwhile, the pre frontal trough associated with a low level wind shift from south to south west is draped across the Allegheny front. I’m just not sure we have the juice to kick off storms. My dew point is in the upper 60s, but our cape west of the beltway remains stubbornly in the 500-1000 range. This isn’t like last Friday where we had 3000+ Cape and near conditionally unstable LL lapse rates. Additionally, the RH between the LCL and LFC is 30-50% across where the trough would cause storms to form. Just seems we got a good bit stacked against us thermodynamically. That said, this is all beginner analysis so the Mets probably see reasons that storms will pop that I don’t. 

[yoda]

MCD should be coming soon 

[high risk]

57 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hmm, took a look at the mesoanalysis page and I’m still on the train of storms today could be nasty, but I have some concerns about initiation. I did a hand analysis of the SPC page and evidently the pre frontal axis is located along route 15. Meanwhile, the pre frontal trough associated with a low level wind shift from south to south west is draped across the Allegheny front. I’m just not sure we have the juice to kick off storms. My dew point is in the upper 60s, but our cape west of the beltway remains stubbornly in the 500-1000 range. This isn’t like last Friday where we had 3000+ Cape and near conditionally unstable LL lapse rates. Additionally, the RH between the LCL and LFC is 30-50% across where the trough would cause storms to form. Just seems we got a good bit stacked against us thermodynamically. That said, this is all beginner analysis so the Mets probably see reasons that storms will pop that I don’t. 

You’re not wrong that there are some factors working against this setup, and there are some legit questions about storm coverage.   That said 1) dynamics are much better today - synoptic lift will be overspreading the area later today 2) we’re still several hours from game time for most of us, and better moisture should be arriving 3) while cape will be lower today compared to a few days ago, shear is way better.  

[yoda]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

MCD should be coming soon 

There it is... 80%... watch needed soon 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1141.html

 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1141
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of Virginia...far southern
   Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 141917Z - 142115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will move eastward with damaging
   wind potential into the afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across the Shenandoah Valley and
   Blue Ridge Mountains will increase in coverage and intensity as they
   shift eastward into the more favorable air mass across
   central/eastern Virginia this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm
   development is likely downstream of the ongoing activity, with
   several areas of deepening cumulus noted in visible satellite.
   Mostly sunny skies through the morning has allowed for strong
   daytime heating and warming, with temperatures warming into the mid
   90s. Higher theta-e air is advecting northward, with around
   1000-2000 J/kg across southern Virginia. Steep low-level lapse rates
   are noted in SPC Mesoanalysis (7-8 C/km) and in the 18z RAOB from
   IAD. Though deep layer shear is marginal (around 20-30 kts), very
   warm and unstable conditions amid steep low to mid level lapse rates
   will support potential for water laden downdrafts and severe winds.
   A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential this
   afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37138079 38198017 39397896 40127747 39997643 39767636
               38557680 37327783 36827815 36537946 36688084 36838089
               37138079 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN