2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

I'm doing it....the 2026 iteration starts today. With potential warm weather on the horizon, we will likely see the start of the pencil thing gusty shower line season. 

@yoda - I feel like you're usually on board with early tracking with me. 

Excited to get back to our smaller spring/summer crew...The winter weenies can take their bickering away soon enough. As much as I hate summer heat - I tolerate it for thunderstorms. 

And now....I will go back to watching CFS/weeklies/CSU-MLP/CIPS pages for signs of our first threats! 

[George BM]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm doing it....the 2026 iteration starts today. With potential warm weather on the horizon, we will likely see the start of the pencil thing gusty shower line season. 

@yoda - I feel like you're usually on board with early tracking with me. 

Excited to get back to our smaller spring/summer crew...The winter weenies can take their bickering away soon enough. As much as I hate summer heat - I tolerate it for thunderstorms. 

And now....I will go back to watching CFS/weeklies/CSU-MLP/CIPS pages for signs of our first threats! 

Remember... the new type of convective outlooks come out starting next week with the 1630z Day 1 March 3rd outlook.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

 

 

 

 

[Kmlwx]

I wasn't aware of this! I've been not monitoring as closely due to work. Thank you!!! Imagine a 90% wind  

[Eskimo Joe]

I can't decipher these new outlooks. My astigmatism makes these hatched maps almost unreadable. 

[Kmlwx]

The 2nd half of the coming week has some minor potential. GFS has some modest supercell composite parameters - and even the Euro has some instability around. Interesting enough for early March, at least. Nothing substantial, of course. 

CSU-MLP has some minor probs painted over some of our area Friday. 

[Kmlwx]

19 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I can't decipher these new outlooks. My astigmatism makes these hatched maps almost unreadable. 

It's definitely a little wacky looking - I'm not sure other than doing completely separate color-coded maps how they could have implemented this differently. I like the idea/principle, though! 

[Kmlwx]

The CFS monthlies seemingly have a potential NW flow H5 pattern (at least in general/smoothed terms) same with CanSIPS. For June. 

[high risk]

Nice to see the thread ready to go for the upcoming season!

[yoda]

Hmmm... sneaky severe this evening?

 

[Kmlwx]

I think there could be some non-zero chances into next week. CSU MLP page looks "decent enough for this time of year" for next Wednesday, for example. It's always going to be slim pickings in March (and even most of April) - but I'm intrigued that as soon as warmer temps rolled in some of the predictive tools ramped up just a touch. 

Give us some unseasonably warm/humid days in April into May and something will probably pop off with how dynamics systems can still be that time of year.