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March 2026


snowman19
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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

most models show a coating to an inch at best here

I think that would have to fall after dark to accumulate - borderline temps and it was extremely warm last 2days

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At 18Z it's no longer just the GFS showing snow tomorrow, as the AIFS and NAM have a bit and the HRRR is bullish (although it's the long range HRRR which usually is crappy). However, these snowmaps are at 10:1 ratios, which are not going to happen.  I'll just be happy to see falling snow, even if it doesn't accumulate with temps in the mid-30s - maybe a bit on grassy surfaces at most, unless temps go a bit lower than forecast. The 12Z Euro also showed an inch or so of snow in the late afternoon - will be interesting to see what the 18Z runs say for those two models. The NWS remains unimpressed (can't blame them), mentioning a change to snow showers, but not predicting any accumulation worth noting (<1/2" for areas at elevation in NWNJ/NEPA/Hudson Valley).

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png?ex=69b349

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png?ex=69b349

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png?ex=69b349

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png?ex=69b349

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Some periods of rain and a thunderstorm are likely tonight into tomorrow. An additional period of rain possibly mixing with wet snow is possible tomorrow into tomorrow evening. With temperatures remaining well above freezing, little or no accumulation is likely in New York City.

Nevertheless, if a trace or more of snow is recorded, that would tie the record for fewest days between an 80° or above temperature at Central Park and a trace or more of snow. The records are below:

April 7, 1942: 82°; April 9, 1942: 2.1"
March 20, 1945: 83°; March 22, 1945: Trace
April 1, 1978: 81°; April 3, 1978: Trace

It will turn cooler but not especially cold starting tomorrow and continuing through the weekend. A shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. 

However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +19.96 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.534 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

when is the last time we had two-- 80 + degree days and then the next day heavy snow ?

It has never happened before. May 1977 probably the closest you're going to get:

1977-05-06 84 57 70.5 9.9 0 6 0.47 0.0 0
1977-05-07 74 53 63.5 2.6 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
1977-05-08 64 39 51.5 -9.6 13 0 0.10 0.0 0
1977-05-09 44 36 40.0 -21.4 25 0 0.31 T 0
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