Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

St Patty's day 2014, and another late March snowstorm in 2018 are recent examples of how it isnt mostly over. Lowlands got significant snow in both those events.

There's been some poor post quality this year. You know this up down but mid/late March snow can 100% happen all the way to the coast. Even in RIC (3/12/2022).  It's not common because it requires some specific longwave features to overcome climo. A legit-AO and/or -EPO can 100% deliver an airmass capable of producing.  They don't last as long as earlier in the season so windows of op are shorter but a warning level snow is in the deck for all of us. 

[wasnow215]

How did regular Euro 18z turn out?

[mitchnick]

I know it's not much, but Eps came around 30 miles south from 12z. Modest as it is, there still is plenty of time with this. 

[TSSN+]

28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

How did regular Euro 18z turn out?

Bad 

[Ji]

I know it's not much, but Eps came around 30 miles south from 12z. Modest as it is, there still is plenty of time with this. 

Wait do we want north or south lol

[winter_warlock]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wait do we want north or south lol

We want euro south,... GFS north lol

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

We want euro south,... GFS north lol

The problem is the Euro dampens out the first wave and keys in on the second one.  We've  lost Thermols by the time the Euro brings in precip.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The problem is the Euro dampens out the first wave and keys in on the second one.  We've  lost Thermols by the time the Euro brings in precip.

Yeah I posted about this earlier. Still subject to change at this point. Whatever wave it is, it has to strike when that HP is in place to the north. Once it slides east off the coast its pretty much over for our area for a decent snow event.

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I posted about this earlier. Still subject to change at this point. Whatever wave it is, it has to strike when that HP is in place to the north. Once it slides east off the coast its pretty much over for our area for a decent snow event.

I'd think we want the GFS to be more correct but further north. If we're waiting on precip till later on Tuesday I don't think the high will hang on.

[Ruin]

dont buy what these models say