Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd. Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd. Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd. Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd. Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18 It was below zero and blustery this morning up at elevation in the northern mountains. We hit -4.5F at 3,600ft and 6F at 1500ft. That would be fun in September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It was below zero and blustery this morning up at elevation in the northern mountains. We hit -4.5F at 3,600ft and 6F at 1500ft. That would be fun in September. my god... can you imagine the dopa priapisms in here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd. Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd. Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18 I’ve had snow on May 25th which is roughly equivalent to July 15th. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Get the cleanup going, some tunes outside, late afternoon beverages…let’s go. Boring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: how far above average above climo snowfall, approximately, are you? "B"-grade seems harsh I think I’m over 100%. A B+++? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Hoping the noisture skeedadles earlier on Saturday... limited number of weekends to ski left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Not sure what the gfs robots are doing for Sunday, but I do not approve Can't say I blame the AI versions for being the cooler profiles - if I'm following the slide changes right... Looks like that. I've noticed the AI are typically leaning cooler than the operational/standard versions over the longer haul. I mean, I'm trying to figure out through exposure/inference, how these models come by their solutions. Just watching them long enough one might formulate suspicion as to what they are doing... I've already been told they do not propagate waves through a Fourier Transformation, using Navier-Stokes integrated thermodynamics haha.. Seriously though. I didn't really dig deeper when I saw that; I just sorta figured they're doing some kind of "we don't know how it works" ( a common scary seduction of AI innovation leaders - ) NBM clone and shrugged. But, I do kinda sense that it might have persistence in part of what it is doing - however in the f it is doin' it. In the absence of having actual physics determining the physical future ( eh hm..), I don't believe that AI is really trully creepy just manifesting conscious awareness about the future state of the atmosphere, and therefore am open to it really just doing some simpler shit in proper proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Boring You’re right. Two months later gets more exciting with dews. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You’re right. Two months later gets more exciting with dews. Not looking forward to summer in NYC. Awful times ahead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Sometimes. Most times AI still has that look of something off. When it learns to correct that, that’s when things will get tougher to spot. It’s going to get there sooner than later, that’s when it gets dangerous. Mass misinformation that will only be clarified with forensic analysis. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ve had snow on May 25th which is roughly equivalent to July 15th. 22nd's the latest, personally... I was living in a metro west amid the Dunkin' donuts, ATMs and pub crawl town of Waltham. Great memories of then.. I was in my late 20s amid random vectors of 19 year old bouncy' boobed, Brandeis and Bentley bums passing by in every direction. We used to do sets of Tennis amid, and then Mad Raven, or Joe Sent Me, or go into Boston to the Poor House ... I don't even know if those venues still exits outside the confines of fading nostalgia anymore - but I refuse to let the memories die. Oh, right... so it was 22nd of May I think. 2001 I wanna say but for some reason I mix up 2001 and 2002 events a lot. Anyway, it was 9:30am and 38 F as wind swept sheets of cat paws and occasional noodles enough to silvery glow the previous years bark mulch beds, while surely confused green daffodil shoots poked through. If you looked at the sky you could get a sense of the snow field aloft as it undulated past. Pure cold coastal ... doing all it could against climo. That was may 22nd. I'm like ... 20 days before the Solstice - really? On July 4th it was near 100 if memory serves. Went on to be a warmer than normal summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 22nd's the latest, personally... I was living in a metro west amid the Dunkin' donuts, ATMs and pub crawl town of Waltham. Great memories of then.. I was in my late 20s amid random vectors of 19 year old bouncy' boobed, Brandeis and Bentley bums passing by in every direction. We used to do sets of Tennis amid, and then Mad Raven, or Joe Sent Me, or go into Boston to the Poor House ... I don't even know if those venues still exits outside the confines of fading nostalgia anymore - but I refuse to let the memories die. Oh, right... so it was 22nd of May I think. 2001 I wanna say but for some reason I mix up 2001 and 2002 events a lot. Anyway, it was 9:30am and 38 F as wind swept sheets of cat paws and occasional noodles enough to silvery glow the previous years bark mulch beds with surely confused green daffodil shoots poking through. If you looked at the sky you could get a sense of the snow field aloft as it undulated past. Pure cold coastal ... doing all it could against climo. That was may 22nd. I'm like ... 20 days before the Solstice - really? On July 4th it was near 100 if memory serves. Went on to be a warmer than normal summer. I think it was May 02. The shit winter bookended by early and late season events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 32 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think it was May 02. The shit winter bookended by early and late season events. I'll take another 2002 severe season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right. I realize we put up a 75er last week ... over a snow pack, no less! But that exceptional circumstance really underscores the former point. Because in philosophic principle, the heat has to eventually punch through the pattern and then we have the unusual dichotomy. To mention, the warmth was replaced very quickly by 20F mornings. The NH has been in some kind of constructive resonance that happened to favor our region for cold. At this point, I'm hoping for a violent +ENSO mode that couples to the mid latitudes like the greatest love story of all time ...just to fuckin topple said resonance and get away from this persistence - if it takes that. Unfortunately, ENSO mode changes don't typically register in the summer when change sets in, in summer. Plus, coupling has been shaky in recent cycles. 'Sides, who wants to wait until September for summer to begin. heh. I'm willing to bet that isn't an issue later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Some real haves and have nots in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago we 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Some real haves and have nots in NE parts of Florida had more snow than parts of Utah? That doesn't sound right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hoping the noisture skeedadles earlier on Saturday... limited number of weekends to ski left. same here, i have a big brush pile i need to burn before all the snow is gone, and doing that in the rain is not fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 27.3F. I'm over the cold, let's get on with Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 30 and overcast at 12:20pm is no way to run a Spring day. Fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm willing to bet that isn't an issue later this year. 50/50 ... heh, which ironically, could be the coupled variance result, but I mean just my confidence in the matter. The thing is, the global temperatures are something just shy of unnervingly close to doing something similar to what happened in 2023 - which took off prior to the actual +ENSO. That year was buried inside the global mean doing something else ... Or was it? I mean the RONI stuff sort of skews culpability in the differentials. You kind of want a non-RONI based outlook in tandem, so to make a comparison to the RONI outlook - see the difference. Digress.. Anyway, "IF" the wholesale globe bursts again, I don't feel personally as confident that a warm SST band is as forcing that way. I'm curious what this rusty curve looks like in 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: we 12z GFS Don't do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't do it 12z ICON also but a little further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't do it Kind of reminds me of the Oct 30 2020 thing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON also but a little further south Now I looked. CMC has almost a little inv trough action. GFS AI has something too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON also but a little further south Was it wintry just for you? Or all of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: parts of Florida had more snow than parts of Utah? That doesn't sound right. It’s been all time horrific out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WxWatcher007 said: It’s been all time horrific out west. Well a couple years ago, they had snow covering whole houses and snow up to chairlift levels for god sakes…. The pictures were unbelievable. So it doesn’t shock me that they’ve regressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON also but a little further south Do it!!! Show him both. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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