March Madness

[Typhoon Tip]

If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd.  Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd.  Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd.  Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd.  Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18

It was below zero and blustery this morning up at elevation in the northern mountains.

We hit -4.5F at 3,600ft and 6F at 1500ft.  That would be fun in September.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It was below zero and blustery this morning up at elevation in the northern mountains.

We hit -4.5F at 3,600ft and 6F at 1500ft.  That would be fun in September.

my god... can you imagine the dopa priapisms in here    lol

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd.  Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd.  Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18

I’ve had snow on May 25th which is roughly equivalent to July 15th.

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Get the cleanup going, some tunes outside, late afternoon beverages…let’s go. 

Boring

[Kitz Craver]

12 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

how far above average above climo snowfall, approximately, are you?  "B"-grade seems harsh 

I think I’m over 100%. A B+++? Lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping the noisture skeedadles earlier on Saturday... limited number of weekends to ski left.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Not sure what the gfs robots are doing for Sunday, but I do not approve 

Can't say I blame the AI versions for being the cooler profiles - if I'm following the slide changes right... Looks like that.  I've noticed the AI are typically leaning cooler than the operational/standard versions over the longer haul. 

I mean, I'm trying to figure out through exposure/inference, how these models come by their solutions. Just watching them long enough one might formulate suspicion as to what they are doing... I've already been told they do not propagate waves through a Fourier Transformation, using Navier-Stokes integrated thermodynamics  haha.. Seriously though.  I didn't really dig deeper when I saw that; I just sorta figured they're doing some kind of "we don't know how it works" ( a common scary seduction of AI innovation leaders - ) NBM clone and shrugged.   But, I do kinda sense that it might have persistence in part of what it is doing - however in the f it is doin' it. 

In the absence of having actual physics determining the physical future ( eh hm..), I don't believe that AI is really trully creepy just manifesting conscious awareness about the future state of the atmosphere, and therefore am open to it really just doing some simpler shit in proper proportions. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boring

You’re right. Two months later gets more exciting with dews. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re right. Two months later gets more exciting with dews. 

Not looking forward to summer in NYC. Awful times ahead.

[Kitz Craver]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Sometimes.  Most times AI still has that look of something off. When it learns to correct that, that’s when things will get tougher to spot. 

It’s going to get there sooner than later, that’s when it gets dangerous. Mass misinformation that will only be clarified with forensic analysis. Fun times.

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ve had snow on May 25th which is roughly equivalent to July 15th.

22nd's the latest, personally...

I was living in a metro west amid the Dunkin' donuts, ATMs and pub crawl town of Waltham.  Great memories of then..  I was in my late 20s amid random vectors of 19 year old bouncy' boobed, Brandeis and Bentley bums passing by in every direction.  We used to do sets of Tennis amid, and then Mad Raven, or Joe Sent Me, or go into Boston to the Poor House ... I don't even know if those venues still exits outside the confines of fading nostalgia anymore - but I refuse to let the memories die. 

Oh, right... so it was 22nd of May I think. 2001 I wanna say but for some reason I mix up 2001 and 2002 events a lot.  Anyway, it was 9:30am and 38 F as wind swept sheets of cat paws and occasional noodles enough to silvery glow the previous years bark mulch beds, while surely confused green daffodil shoots poked through.   If you looked at the sky you could get a sense of the snow field aloft as it undulated past.  Pure cold coastal ... doing all it could against climo. 

That was may 22nd. I'm like ... 20 days before the Solstice - really?   On July 4th it was near 100 if memory serves.   Went on to be a warmer than normal summer. 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

22nd's the latest, personally...

I was living in a metro west amid the Dunkin' donuts, ATMs and pub crawl town of Waltham.  Great memories of then..  I was in my late 20s amid random vectors of 19 year old bouncy' boobed, Brandeis and Bentley bums passing by in every direction.  We used to do sets of Tennis amid, and then Mad Raven, or Joe Sent Me, or go into Boston to the Poor House ... I don't even know if those venues still exits outside the confines of fading nostalgia anymore - but I refuse to let the memories die. 

Oh, right... so it was 22nd of May I think. 2001 I wanna say but for some reason I mix up 2001 and 2002 events a lot.  Anyway, it was 9:30am and 38 F as wind swept sheets of cat paws and occasional noodles enough to silvery glow the previous years bark mulch beds with surely confused green daffodil shoots poking through.   If you looked at the sky you could get a sense of the snow field aloft as it undulated past.  Pure cold coastal ... doing all it could against climo. 

That was may 22nd. I'm like ... 20 days before the Solstice - really?   On July 4th it was near 100 if memory serves.   Went on to be a warmer than normal summer. 

I think it was May 02. The shit winter bookended by early and late season events.

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think it was May 02. The shit winter bookended by early and late season events.

I'll take another 2002 severe season 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right.  I realize we put up a 75er last week ... over a snow pack, no less!  But that exceptional circumstance really underscores the former point.  Because in philosophic principle, the heat has to eventually punch through the pattern and then we have the unusual dichotomy.   To mention, the warmth was replaced very quickly by 20F mornings. 

The NH has been in some kind of constructive resonance that happened to favor our region for cold.  At this point, I'm hoping for a violent +ENSO mode that couples to the mid latitudes like the greatest love story of all time ...just to fuckin topple said resonance and get away from this persistence - if it takes that. 

Unfortunately, ENSO mode changes don't typically register in the summer when change sets in, in summer.   Plus, coupling has been shaky in recent cycles.  'Sides, who wants to wait until September for summer to begin.  heh.

 

I'm willing to bet that isn't an issue later this year.

[WxWatcher007]

Some real haves and have nots in NE

[ineedsnow]

we 12z GFS 

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Some real haves and have nots in NE

parts of Florida had more snow than parts of Utah? That doesn't sound right. 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hoping the noisture skeedadles earlier on Saturday... limited number of weekends to ski left.

same here, i have a big brush pile i need to burn before all the snow is gone, and doing that in the rain is not fun

[Lava Rock]

27.3F. I'm over the cold, let's get on with Spring. 

[metagraphica]

30 and overcast at 12:20pm is no way to run a Spring day. Fail.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm willing to bet that isn't an issue later this year.

50/50 ...  heh, which ironically, could be the coupled variance result, but I mean just my confidence in the matter.

The thing is, the global temperatures are something just shy of unnervingly close to doing something similar to what happened in 2023 - which took off prior to the actual +ENSO.  

That year was buried inside the global mean doing something else ... Or was it?  I mean the RONI stuff sort of skews culpability in the differentials.  You kind of want a non-RONI based outlook in tandem, so to make a comparison to the RONI outlook - see the difference.   Digress..  

Anyway, "IF" the wholesale globe bursts again, I don't feel personally as confident that a warm SST band is as forcing that way.   I'm curious what this rusty curve looks like in 2 months

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we 12z GFS 

Don't do it

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't do it

12z ICON also but a little further south

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't do it

Kind of reminds me of the Oct 30 2020 thing

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

12z ICON also but a little further south

Now I looked. CMC has almost a little inv trough action. GFS AI has something too.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z ICON also but a little further south

Was it wintry just for you? Or all of SNE? 

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

parts of Florida had more snow than parts of Utah? That doesn't sound right. 

It’s been all time horrific out west.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s been all time horrific out west.

Well a couple years ago, they had snow covering whole houses and snow up to chairlift levels for god sakes…. The pictures were unbelievable. So it doesn’t shock me that they’ve regressed. 

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z ICON also but a little further south

Do it!!! Show him both. LOL