March Madness

[Typhoon Tip]

If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd.  Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd.  Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd.  Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd.  Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18

It was below zero and blustery this morning up at elevation in the northern mountains.

We hit -4.5F at 3,600ft and 6F at 1500ft.  That would be fun in September.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It was below zero and blustery this morning up at elevation in the northern mountains.

We hit -4.5F at 3,600ft and 6F at 1500ft.  That would be fun in September.

my god... can you imagine the dopa priapisms in here    lol

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If anyone has any conceptual uncertainty/questions related to "seasonal lag" remaining, just consider that today is the same solar irradiance as September 23rd.  Now imagine this below being the state of affairs on any September 23rd.  Ha. - the 'absurdity value' is probably proportional to why the it can happen on March 18

I’ve had snow on May 25th which is roughly equivalent to July 15th.

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Get the cleanup going, some tunes outside, late afternoon beverages…let’s go. 

Boring

[Kitz Craver]

12 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

how far above average above climo snowfall, approximately, are you?  "B"-grade seems harsh 

I think I’m over 100%. A B+++? Lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping the noisture skeedadles earlier on Saturday... limited number of weekends to ski left.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Not sure what the gfs robots are doing for Sunday, but I do not approve 

Can't say I blame the AI versions for being the cooler profiles - if I'm following the slide changes right... Looks like that.  I've noticed the AI are typically leaning cooler than the operational/standard versions over the longer haul. 

I mean, I'm trying to figure out through exposure/inference, how these models come by their solutions. Just watching them long enough one might formulate suspicion as to what they are doing... I've already been told they do not propagate waves through a Fourier Transformation, using Navier-Stokes integrated thermodynamics  haha.. Seriously though.  I didn't really dig deeper when I saw that; I just sorta figured they're doing some kind of "we don't know how it works" ( a common scary seduction of AI innovation leaders - ) NBM clone and shrugged.   But, I do kinda sense that it might have persistence in part of what it is doing - however in the f it is doin' it. 

In the absence of having actual physics determining the physical future ( eh hm..), I don't believe that AI is really trully creepy just manifesting conscious awareness about the future state of the atmosphere, and therefore am open to it really just doing some simpler shit in proper proportions. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boring

You’re right. Two months later gets more exciting with dews. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re right. Two months later gets more exciting with dews. 

Not looking forward to summer in NYC. Awful times ahead.

[Kitz Craver]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Sometimes.  Most times AI still has that look of something off. When it learns to correct that, that’s when things will get tougher to spot. 

It’s going to get there sooner than later, that’s when it gets dangerous. Mass misinformation that will only be clarified with forensic analysis. Fun times.

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ve had snow on May 25th which is roughly equivalent to July 15th.

22nd's the latest, personally...

I was living in a metro west amid the Dunkin' donuts, ATMs and pub crawl town of Waltham.  Great memories of then..  I was in my late 20s amid random vectors of 19 year old bouncy' boobed, Brandeis and Bentley bums passing by in every direction.  We used to do sets of Tennis amid, and then Mad Raven, or Joe Sent Me, or go into Boston to the Poor House ... I don't even know if those venues still exits outside the confines of fading nostalgia anymore - but I refuse to let the memories die. 

Oh, right... so it was 22nd of May I think. 2001 I wanna say but for some reason I mix up 2001 and 2002 events a lot.  Anyway, it was 9:30am and 38 F as wind swept sheets of cat paws and occasional noodles enough to silvery glow the previous years bark mulch beds, while surely confused green daffodil shoots poked through.   If you looked at the sky you could get a sense of the snow field aloft as it undulated past.  Pure cold coastal ... doing all it could against climo. 

That was may 22nd. I'm like ... 20 days before the Solstice - really?   On July 4th it was near 100 if memory serves.   Went on to be a warmer than normal summer. 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

22nd's the latest, personally...

I was living in a metro west amid the Dunkin' donuts, ATMs and pub crawl town of Waltham.  Great memories of then..  I was in my late 20s amid random vectors of 19 year old bouncy' boobed, Brandeis and Bentley bums passing by in every direction.  We used to do sets of Tennis amid, and then Mad Raven, or Joe Sent Me, or go into Boston to the Poor House ... I don't even know if those venues still exits outside the confines of fading nostalgia anymore - but I refuse to let the memories die. 

Oh, right... so it was 22nd of May I think. 2001 I wanna say but for some reason I mix up 2001 and 2002 events a lot.  Anyway, it was 9:30am and 38 F as wind swept sheets of cat paws and occasional noodles enough to silvery glow the previous years bark mulch beds with surely confused green daffodil shoots poking through.   If you looked at the sky you could get a sense of the snow field aloft as it undulated past.  Pure cold coastal ... doing all it could against climo. 

That was may 22nd. I'm like ... 20 days before the Solstice - really?   On July 4th it was near 100 if memory serves.   Went on to be a warmer than normal summer. 

I think it was May 02. The shit winter bookended by early and late season events.

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think it was May 02. The shit winter bookended by early and late season events.

I'll take another 2002 severe season 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right.  I realize we put up a 75er last week ... over a snow pack, no less!  But that exceptional circumstance really underscores the former point.  Because in philosophic principle, the heat has to eventually punch through the pattern and then we have the unusual dichotomy.   To mention, the warmth was replaced very quickly by 20F mornings. 

The NH has been in some kind of constructive resonance that happened to favor our region for cold.  At this point, I'm hoping for a violent +ENSO mode that couples to the mid latitudes like the greatest love story of all time ...just to fuckin topple said resonance and get away from this persistence - if it takes that. 

Unfortunately, ENSO mode changes don't typically register in the summer when change sets in, in summer.   Plus, coupling has been shaky in recent cycles.  'Sides, who wants to wait until September for summer to begin.  heh.

 

I'm willing to bet that isn't an issue later this year.