March Madness

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Lets track this

Go enjoy the deep spring 

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lets track this

That is WOR revenge storm, too bad it in 360+ hrs out.....

[metagraphica]

8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

50F so far today, feels like 70! I got to do some sno blowing around the house; felt nice!

Beautiful spring day. Good day to shovel out the garage.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go enjoy the deep spring 

Going to take the newborn out next month when it gets warmer.

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

That's like a 'rubber band' pattern at the end of that GFS. 

Basically ... the model loses the forcing that driving the predominating signal earlier in the run's time spans.  Pulls away leaving default huge instability - bounces back and overcompensates.   

That's likely all manufactured by normal accumulation of a randomness over time finally buckling the scaffold of the total synopsis and then that emerges, equally as a result of randomness. 

In other words, there's pretty much 0 practical usefulness of that storm/chart.    

Having said that...yeah, in principle, the warm pattern is not likely to last indefinitely ... even though I want it to. HAHAHA.  Personal druthers aside, I wouldn't be shocked if the warm pattern begins to progress off and the emergence of a western limb -NAO burst happens.  It's in the latter sequence of events that here may be a last hurrah winter expression ...be it temperatures and annoyance or perhaps an actual event.   

Boinnnng or not, the GFS also looks like what it does every year's first 2nd or third warm up - I know...because I whine about it ...every year at this time.  It washes out warm signal prematurely and then resets the basal pattern back to Feb 1.   Not sure why it predictably does this, but that pattern at the end of the run with those long wave spaces and deep heights over Canada strikes me as suspiciously the same thing it does ever early to mid spring.  

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's like 'rubber band' pattern at the end of that GFS. 

Basically ... the model loses the forcing that driving the predominating signal, earlier in the run's time spans, and there's a kind of emergent 'elasticity' where the physics respond by then default to huge instability ... creating a pattern overcompensation.   

That's likely all manufactured by normal accumulation of a randomness over time finally buckling the scaffold of the total synopsis and then that emerges, equally as a result of randomness. 

In other words, there's pretty much 0 practical usefulness of that storm/chart.    

Having said that...yeah, in principle, the warm pattern is not likely to last indefinitely ... even though I want it to. HAHAHA.  Personal druthers aside, I wouldn't be shocked if the warm pattern begins to progress off and the emergence of a western limb -NAO burst happens.  It's in the latter sequence of events that here may be a last hurrah winter expression ...be it temperatures and annoyance or perhaps an actual event.   

The GFS looks like what it does every year - I know...because I whine about it ...every year at this time.  It washes out warm signal prematurely and then resets the basal pattern back to Feb 1.   Not sure why it predictably does this, but that pattern at the end of the run with those long wave spaces and deep heights over Canada striking me as the exact same thing it does ever early and mid spring.  

Honestly, don’t need warm I will gladly take 45-50F as a cool down 

[512high]

47F/ clouds

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Honestly, don’t need warm I will gladly take 45-50F as a cool down 

I've been pushing more of a 'melt and mud' season for the time being.   There's a higher ceiling than that.  However, in deference to the fact that every month since last October has successfully target this region of the continent for disproportionate cold relative to the whole hemisphere, it's hard to imagine this warm up performing at the higher end - just based on that unmitigated persistence.   If that 564+ dm thickness surge makes inside of 84 hours on guidance, fine...  

I'll tell yeah  ...wouldn't it be interesting to see a 70s transporting warm front run over this snow pack though?   

[Go Kart Mozart]

47 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

That is WOR revenge storm, too bad it in 360+ hrs out.....

I am going to the Lourdes Shrine in Litchfield to light a candle for this.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is 70s also next week. 

[Torch Tiger]

60's-70's locked in 3/11.  Fantastic

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

60's-70's locked in 3/11.  Fantastic

Not sure about locked, but that’s what they show.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure about locked, but that’s what they show.

We’ve had a hard time locking anything beyond 48 hours.
If it warms up, so be it.  Pretty sure the interior has one more warning event coming.

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure about locked, but that’s what they show.

100% locked most areas away from ocean

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Sort of weather related.  
With all the craziness in the Middle East and still sort of in cold weather season,  I called my friend who’s an IT for our heating oil company and got him to lock me in 150 gallons at yesterday‘s price!  Woot!   

[Damage In Tolland]

Only 10 days to mess up a week of 70’s in Morch . Nothing can go wrong 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It doesn’t advect into us enough for lots of frozen. We might get lots of CAD 37F drizzle/rain during the warmup. But might still need to watch end of next week given how obscenely strong that Quebec high gets. 
 

I do think we will have another window of chances starting sometime around mid-month though. PV keeps sinking toward Hudson Bay on ensembles. 

Especially my area of SNE, closest to Maine.....spring is noose season.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only 10 days to mess up a week of 70’s in Morch . Nothing can go wrong 

The mid month flip is going to make many unhappy. But we knew 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The mid month flip is going to make many unhappy. But we knew 

Still AN there 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Ensemble charts being this toasty are good for those wanting warmth. 

[CoastalWx]

Although battle ground is one area, but that’s probably congrats Great Lakes