Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Just stopping by to say we want to see plenty of pics. We got our 12-inch snow earlier this year. Hope y'all get buried.... Don’t want to get Raleigh’d 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: The euro did move back west from 0z, I didn’t look at frames but allsnow up in NYC said 50+ miles. Perhaps the bleeding has stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO zoomed on IVT Live being in the IVT. Looks to be IVT or bust here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Live being in the IVT. Looks to be IVT or bust here I think for our areas, it looks like the IVT is key but I do expect a wider swath on the western edge with all of the energy moving through. It is a classic pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 In general, this set up is so fragile that microscopic differences upstream involving the phasing and tilting of the trough could have substantial surface differences, even in the final 24 hours. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO zoomed on IVT If Ji only knew where he lived he would be pumped by the 6z euro. That's an Eastern Loudoun special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: If Ji only knew where he lived he would be pumped by the 6z euro. That's an Eastern Loudoun special I would love to see that. But someone is gonna get Raleighed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Terpeast said: I would love to see that. But someone is gonna get Raleighed If i were a betting man I'd think the euro is going to shift back west some at 12z the 0z was a total disconnect from everything else. That said im guessing Berryville to Round Hill will be in the cross hairs on the 12z euro...total guess though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Bar IMBY is 3”, and IVT might have a lot to say about that. I do think the gfs is likely most accurate with early stage qpf that might get 1-2” down early on then root for the IVT. In that zone, someone is going to get dumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, aldie 22 said: If i were a betting man I'd think the euro is going to shift back west some at 12z the 0z was a total disconnect from everything else. That said im guessing Berryville to Round Hill will be in the cross hairs on the 12z euro...total guess though Yeah I’m glad 6z came back west as well. I saw an h5 of 6z UK, looked extremely amped but never saw a surface map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: If Ji only knew where he lived he would be pumped by the 6z euro. That's an Eastern Loudoun special And the typical results for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, Nomz said: Let’s trend back west today and raise those probabilities. Still, 20% over my yard. Impressive uncertainty at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, Nomz said: 20% > 18% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Likely official measurements DCA: 1.2", IAD: 2", BWI: 3.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Let’s trend back west today and raise those probabilities. Still, 20% over my yard. Impressive uncertainty at this lead time. Need some trends today to have something significant down here, was hoping to bump that CCB west overnight but appears that trend has largely stopped. looking at the 6Z nam wow Delaware Nj NYC Long Island gonna get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 WBAL going a general 3-5, high end 7. Didn’t show a map so they probably aren’t ready to put numbers to places yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 My gut was telling folks yesterday on my teams at work that we’d see 1-3”/2-4” - seems like we’re on track for that, which I’m not sneezing at. ETA: for DC/NOVA, eastern shore and NE MD will see more. And IVT is the wildcard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Need some trends today to have something significant down here, was hoping to bump that CCB west overnight but appears that trend has largely stopped. looking at the 6Z nam wow Delaware Nj NYC Long Island gonna get smoked. Still reason to be optimistic. So much complex interaction going to happen between now and tomorrow morning to set the storm in motion. Hopefully the Canadien short wave excelled in obedience school! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, mappy said: WBAL going a general 3-5, high end 7. Didn’t show a map so they probably aren’t ready to put numbers to places yet Yeah, last night Tom T. was leaning toward Euro. I think thats best option as of this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: Likely official measurements DCA: 1.2", IAD: 2", BWI: 3.5" WPC current forecast for BWI is 6.5". You think AA Co gets sucker holed? I think AA Co is probably good for 4" with more east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: My gut was telling folks yesterday on my teams at work that we’d see 1-3”/2-4” - seems like we’re on track for that, which I’m not sneezing at. ETA: for DC/NOVA, eastern shore and NE MD will see more. And IVT is the wildcard This makes sense to me. 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Still reason to be optimistic. So much complex interaction going to happen between now and tomorrow morning to set the storm in motion. Hopefully the Canadien short wave excelled in obedience school! We will see! Hopefully! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: WPC current forecast for BWI is 6.5". You think AA Co gets sucker holed? I think AA Co is probably good for 4" with more east. What I’m trying to figure out is how intense bands will be at the outer edges, and where subsidence might also play with the influence of a low that intense bombing off the coast. having lobes of intense s/w energy in the flow should help make the precip field fairly expansive regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Yeah, last night Tom T. was leaning toward Euro. I think thats best option as of this morning. Agreed. It’s gonna snow either way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: What I’m trying to figure out is how intense bands will be at the outer edges, and where subsidence might also play with the influence of a low that intense bombing off the coast. having lobes of intense s/w energy in the flow should help make the precip field fairly expansive regardless. There will be an ultimate loser out of this on the western edge, but it's tough to say where. The norlun trough is going to be really important for you guys to hit max potential. I'm semi-bullish for areas of NE MD down along and east of I-97. I'm bullish af for areas east of Cambridge latitude. Delaware is the place to be for our sub-forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Rap is the last standing bomb for most at this point. This is thru Monday 12z with more to come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, mitchnick said: Rap is the last standing bom for most at this point. This is thru Monday 12z with more to come. Notoriously the overzealous RAP haha. One of the worst pieces of guidance of course. What do the 9z srefs show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: My gut was telling folks yesterday on my teams at work that we’d see 1-3”/2-4” - seems like we’re on track for that, which I’m not sneezing at. ETA: for DC/NOVA, eastern shore and NE MD will see more. And IVT is the wildcard Dude you should be careful. where you understand the crazy bust boom potential of this storm and know to take your forecast with a grain of salt, your coworkers could be looking to you as the "wiz weather geek" that always "gets it right".. and for all we know some poor schmuck decided to move forward with a party or some big plans based on the fact that "2-4 is nothing" then Sunday night comes and he is stranded in his car on route 50 under a blizzard warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1114 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Rap is the last standing bomb for most at this point. This is thru Monday 12z with more to come.I wish but that ain’t happening lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Rap is the last standing bomb for most at this point. This is thru Monday 12z with more to come.Miller b is the worst man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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