2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[T. August]

Wild that it’s not impossible for someone to see 24-30” from this.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Thanks man. I put a lot of effort into that one. A lot to go over. I’m hoping everything materializes and we all get some solid fun from this one. 

Just catching up but great writeup. Was great to see the synthesis of a bunch of what I've learned throughout fall be mentioned in there. Might share with my Atmosphere and Weather professor if you don't mind. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wait a second. We're looking at HRRR runs. This storm is now well within two days.

Yup it goes to show just how much people do not trust the gfs anymore.  Three years ago this place would have bonkers for 5 days straight even without the euro being on board. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

still a bit more to come for delmarva.

snow depth cuts totals in half

kuch maybe drops by 25-33%

No it doesn't. 

[osfan24]

Just need a 100 mile shift west.

[clskinsfan]

NAM snows through most of Monday. Pretty wild run. 

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No it doesn't. 

 

Hmm? Maybe not everywhere on the map (eg where you live), but on many places it does??

9.9 --> 7.5 for MBY == -25%.  Fredericksburg 8.9 --> 5.8 == -33%

[midatlanticweather]

Why aren't we looking at the 3km? The 12km is a true NAMing.. 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Going to need to be making some tough calls on if I travel back up to NOVA. I have a midterm Monday so I think my bar is 6 inches of snow is worth missing it for - or driving back in the middle of the night.

[Paleocene]

3k. still snowing after hour 60, so not done with totals here.

[clskinsfan]

FV3 is pretty nice as well. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Even the traditionally drier 3km gets most of us to at least 4" - 6".

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

3k. still snowing after hour 60, so not done with totals here.

Whoa for back here

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Hmm? Maybe not everywhere on the map (eg where you live), but on many places it does??

9.9 --> 7.5 for MBY == -25%.  Fredericksburg 8.9 --> 5.8 == -33%

York gets more. Northern areas and those under the cc are least affected. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Whoa for back here

HRRR has that same band. too. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

There are now 36 "Haha/LOL" reactions to your post here, I added the last one...must now be a record or near record number of those for a single post!!!

[WVsnowlover]

Randy in his rental car right now getting the f*ck out of Houston lol

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Whoa for back here

With the system pushed west, the norlun got pushed west too.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

HRRR has that same band. too. 

That looks like the footprint of the IVT? Before today's NAM runs the only model pulling it that far west was the GFS. The other guidance joining in on that would be its ultimate victory. 

[wxmeddler]

I think even with the less than optimal surface temperatures the NAM give the I-95 corridor north of Fredericksburg 6-8" system total. 

Edit: But it's gonna be slop.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM snows through most of Monday. Pretty wild run. 

I hope it's so much that it impacts the Tuesday commute and I don't have to go to jury duty, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

I think even with the less than optimal surface temperatures the NAM give the I-95 corridor north of Fredericksburg 6-8" system total. 

Wow...if 6-8 turns into a minimum we are in BUSINESS. But more importantly...where would Mr. Uccineli rather be? 

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...if 6-8 turns into a minimum we are in BUSINESS. But more importantly...where would Mr. Uccineli rather be? 

New Jersey

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Icon looks to be continuing the amping/better phasing trend early….

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...if 6-8 turns into a minimum we are in BUSINESS. But more importantly...where would Mr. Uccineli rather be?

Tom’s river NJ, or maybe Plymouth MA?

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

There are now 36 "Haha/LOL" reactions to your post here, I added the last one...must now be a record or near record number of those for a single post!!!

I hate all of you rn

[wxmeddler]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...if 6-8 turns into a minimum we are in BUSINESS. But more importantly...where would Mr. Uccineli rather be? 

Haven't talked to him but he would say the lack of a coupled jet preceeding the amplification doesn't bode well for getting the cold air in place (Which of know). I think he'd say that there's a higher than normal bust potential given the lack of a incipient cold wedge. But the dynamics are really high, so it should overcome.

[caviman2201]

I'm a little salty... was just in AC last weekend. I missed the 15" at DCL on Jan 25 by 1 week and now gonna miss 15"+ at AC by one week 

[Interstate]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I hate all of you rn

I might have to update Gray Hat forecast

[Demeter]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I hate all of you rn

Bet you’ll be on a Sunday plane. You can sell this.