2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Just stopping by to say we want to see plenty of pics. We got our 12-inch snow earlier this year. Hope y'all get buried....

Don’t want to get Raleigh’d

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

The euro did move back west from 0z, I didn’t look at frames but allsnow up in NYC said 50+ miles.

Perhaps the bleeding has stopped 

[LeesburgWx]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO zoomed on IVT

Live being in the IVT. Looks to be IVT or bust here

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Live being in the IVT. Looks to be IVT or bust here

I think for our areas, it looks like the IVT is key but I do expect a wider swath on the western edge with all of the energy moving through. It is a classic pass. 

[DDweatherman]

In general, this set up is so fragile that microscopic differences upstream involving the phasing and tilting of the trough could have substantial surface differences, even in the final 24 hours. 

[aldie 22]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO zoomed on IVT

If Ji only knew where he lived he would be pumped by the 6z euro. That's an Eastern Loudoun special 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

If Ji only knew where he lived he would be pumped by the 6z euro. That's an Eastern Loudoun special 

I would love to see that. But someone is gonna get Raleighed

[Nomz]

[aldie 22]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I would love to see that. But someone is gonna get Raleighed

If i were a betting man I'd think the euro is going to shift back west some at 12z the 0z was a total disconnect from everything else. That said im guessing Berryville to Round Hill will be in the cross hairs on the 12z euro...total guess though

[DDweatherman]

Bar IMBY is 3”, and IVT might have a lot to say about that. I do think the gfs is likely most accurate with early stage qpf that might get 1-2” down early on then root for the IVT. In that zone, someone is going to get dumped. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

If i were a betting man I'd think the euro is going to shift back west some at 12z the 0z was a total disconnect from everything else. That said im guessing Berryville to Round Hill will be in the cross hairs on the 12z euro...total guess though

Yeah I’m glad 6z came back west as well. I saw an h5 of 6z UK, looked extremely amped but never saw a surface map. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

If Ji only knew where he lived he would be pumped by the 6z euro. That's an Eastern Loudoun special 

And the typical results for us.  

[SnowGolfBro]

8 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Let’s trend back west today and raise those probabilities. Still, 20% over my yard. Impressive uncertainty at this lead time.

[aldie 22]

10 minutes ago, Nomz said:

20% > 18% 

[snowfan]

Likely official measurements 

DCA: 1.2", IAD: 2", BWI: 3.5"

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Let’s trend back west today and raise those probabilities. Still, 20% over my yard. Impressive uncertainty at this lead time.

Need some trends today to have something significant down here, was hoping to bump that CCB west overnight but appears that trend has largely stopped.  looking at the 6Z nam wow Delaware Nj NYC Long Island gonna get smoked. 

[mappy]

WBAL going a general 3-5, high end 7. Didn’t show a map so they probably aren’t ready to put numbers to places yet

[nj2va]

My gut was telling folks yesterday on my teams at work that we’d see 1-3”/2-4” - seems like we’re on track for that, which I’m not sneezing at. 
 

ETA: for DC/NOVA, eastern shore and NE MD will see more. And IVT is the wildcard 

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Need some trends today to have something significant down here, was hoping to bump that CCB west overnight but appears that trend has largely stopped.  looking at the 6Z nam wow Delaware Nj NYC Long Island gonna get smoked. 

Still reason to be optimistic. So much complex interaction going to happen between now and tomorrow morning to set the storm in motion. Hopefully the Canadien short wave excelled in obedience school!

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

WBAL going a general 3-5, high end 7. Didn’t show a map so they probably aren’t ready to put numbers to places yet

Yeah, last night Tom T. was leaning toward Euro. I think thats best option as of this morning.

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Likely official measurements 

DCA: 1.2", IAD: 2", BWI: 3.5"

WPC current forecast for BWI is 6.5". You think AA Co gets sucker holed? I think AA Co is probably good for 4" with more east. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

My gut was telling folks yesterday on my teams at work that we’d see 1-3”/2-4” - seems like we’re on track for that, which I’m not sneezing at. 
 

ETA: for DC/NOVA, eastern shore and NE MD will see more. And IVT is the wildcard 

This makes sense to me.

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Still reason to be optimistic. So much complex interaction going to happen between now and tomorrow morning to set the storm in motion. Hopefully the Canadien short wave excelled in obedience school!

We will see! Hopefully! 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

WPC current forecast for BWI is 6.5". You think AA Co gets sucker holed? I think AA Co is probably good for 4" with more east. 

What I’m trying to figure out is how intense bands will be at the outer edges, and where subsidence might also play with the influence of a low that intense bombing off the coast. 
 

having lobes of intense s/w energy in the flow should help make the precip field fairly expansive regardless. 

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Yeah, last night Tom T. was leaning toward Euro. I think thats best option as of this morning.

Agreed. It’s gonna snow either way 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

What I’m trying to figure out is how intense bands will be at the outer edges, and where subsidence might also play with the influence of a low that intense bombing off the coast. 
 

having lobes of intense s/w energy in the flow should help make the precip field fairly expansive regardless. 

There will be an ultimate loser out of this on the western edge, but it's tough to say where. The norlun trough is going to be really important for you guys to hit max potential. I'm semi-bullish for areas of NE MD down along and east of I-97. I'm bullish af for areas east of Cambridge latitude. Delaware is the place to be for our sub-forum. 

[mitchnick]

Rap is the last standing bomb for most at this point. This is thru Monday 12z with more to come.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Rap is the last standing bom for most at this point. This is thru Monday 12z with more to come.

Notoriously the overzealous RAP haha. One of the worst pieces of guidance of course. What do the 9z srefs show? 

[MDScienceTeacher]

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

My gut was telling folks yesterday on my teams at work that we’d see 1-3”/2-4” - seems like we’re on track for that, which I’m not sneezing at. 
 

ETA: for DC/NOVA, eastern shore and NE MD will see more. And IVT is the wildcard 

Dude you should be careful. where you understand the crazy bust boom potential of this storm and know to take your forecast with a grain of salt, your coworkers could be looking to you as the "wiz weather geek" that always "gets it right".. and for all we know some poor schmuck decided to move forward with a party or some big plans based on the fact that "2-4 is nothing"

then Sunday night comes and he is stranded in his car on route 50 under a blizzard warning!

[davidjd1114]

Rap is the last standing bomb for most at this point. This is thru Monday 12z with more to come.

I wish but that ain’t happening lol


.

[Ji]

Rap is the last standing bomb for most at this point. This is thru Monday 12z with more to come.

Miller b is the worst man