mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Current Srefs vs last run. Lol. Hello GFS! 1st Gfs confirmation. 3 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 We talk shit about the SREFs all the time. What is their best use case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: We talk shit about the SREFs all the time. What is their best use case? Weenie life preserver. Lol But seriously, I've never seen such a turnaround. Something is going on here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Technically, 1 more panel. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: We talk shit about the SREFs all the time. What is their best use case? Sadly, there isn’t much use. You’d just rather them be in your camp than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don’t think anyone talked about 6z rgem but it shows this well. Starts as snow for a lot of people and then mixing back and forth all day and then a solid IVT thump after dark. It’s 10:1 totals are 6-8” for some, but even in the coldest spots you’d never have that on the ground all at once. That’s reasonable if you ignore the gfs coastal. As soon as rates let up, you’re mixing or non accumulating. Then hoping the ivt gives the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: We talk shit about the SREFs all the time. What is their best use case? I wouldn’t take them literally but I think that’s a very large shift! Hopefully indicative of things to come at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 We are bring this one home!!! 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I have to! Only thru Monday 1am. Still going. Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down. @mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more. The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables. I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. 2 3 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 46 minutes ago, stormtracker said: “I won’t be mad if you don’t go” said in the saltiest way possible. Anyway I hope it does snow a few inches just so I can troll temu GW. You’re making the right choice. Smart call. We’ve all seen wayyyy more situations with this level of uncertainty fail or underwhelm. That said…if the Euro comes in with 2 feet while you’re 30k feet up over Eastern Tennessee today, we’ll all be expecting you back tonight, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NAM uses NMB physics per met on our discord, wonder if see a 12z NAMMING with how that one member looks 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down. @mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more. The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables. I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. I suspect my Nws will be changing after 12z runs, but we'll see. It does get surprisingly cold in these parts compared to my old digs in Northern Anne Arundel County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 It's always wise to have a healthy dose of skepticism around here when it comes to snow but some of you are trying way too hard...clearly a few models are seeing something, it doesn't make them right or wrong though...we will find out soon enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I see Gray Hat is in a trolling mood like usual. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Unless there are massive shifts at this point, I think we’re at the point where we have to give the GFS its flowers for this one. Even if the ground truth ends up not being impressive for some or all of us, it’s clear the GFS had the right synoptic idea for this storm waaaaaaaay ahead of other models - and it’s also been super consistent. As much as we shit on it, this is a reminder that it’s a global weather model that should be paid attention to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 We are having heavy thunderstorm here Magnolia Delaware. Like to see that instability in the Sunday storm. Maybe that would help you all out. Any possibility of thunder during it? 1 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Unless there are massive shifts at this point, I think we’re at the point where we have to give the GFS its flowers for this one. Even if the ground truth ends up not being impressive for some or all of us, it’s clear the GFS had the right synoptic idea for this storm waaaaaaaay ahead of other models - and it’s also been super consistent. As much as we shit on it, this is a reminder that it’s a global weather model that should be paid attention to.If I don’t get at least 6” the only thing the GFS will get is hate 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Current Srefs vs last run. Lol. Hello GFS! 1st Gfs confirmation. The problem is that's a worse model than GFS especially at this range lol once it gets inside three hours it's terrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 14 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down. @mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more. The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables. I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. I can’t figure out if there is more shit in your toilet or your posts. 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 High end updated from LWX (low end is 0-T of course haha) 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I can’t figure out if there is more shit in your toilet or your posts. Can't help you you drool over maps that show unrealistic amounts of snow. The crap in my toilet is as bad as your Ravens. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 @GreyHat you’ve now posted comments about current weather in 2 different threads, neither of which is an obs thread 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: High end updated from LWX (low end is 0-T of course haha) Cold chasing precip, increasing sun angle, a rapid developing coastal that’s 100 miles east of OC, and a reliance on an IVT/Norlun…just our kinda storm. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 20 minutes ago, GreyHat said: We are having heavy thunderstorm here Magnolia Delaware. Like to see that instability in the Sunday storm. Maybe that would help you all out. Any possibility of thunder during it? Looks dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 21 minutes ago, Interstate said: I see Gray Hat is in a trolling mood like usual. He’s been going around leaving X reactions. So dumb. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, stormtracker said: He’s been going around leaving X reactions. So dumb. But he works at the White House. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 The EPS and CMC ens are very similar with snow amounts across the region. Have the heavier precip just off/along the coast to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 26 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down. @mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more. The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables. I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. Mother Nature > reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 The EPS and CMC ens are very similar with snow amounts across the region. Has the heavier precip just off/along the coast to the NE.You gotta like your spot for this one. How is your guest bedroom situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @GreyHat you’ve now posted comments about current weather in 2 different threads, neither of which is an obs thread So, your point? I asked a question, or can't you answer the question? 2 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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