Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[mitchnick]

Current Srefs vs last run. Lol. Hello GFS! 1st Gfs confirmation. 

[LeesburgWx]

We talk shit about the SREFs all the time. What is their best use case?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

We talk shit about the SREFs all the time. What is their best use case?

Weenie life preserver. Lol

But seriously, I've never seen such a turnaround. Something is going on here.

[mitchnick]

Technically, 1 more panel.

 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

We talk shit about the SREFs all the time. What is their best use case?

Sadly, there isn’t much use. You’d just rather them be in your camp than not. 

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Don’t think anyone talked about 6z rgem but it shows this well. Starts as snow for a lot of people and then mixing back and forth all day and then a solid IVT thump after dark. It’s 10:1 totals are 6-8” for some, but even in the coldest spots you’d never have that on the ground all at once. 

That’s reasonable if you ignore the gfs coastal. As soon as rates let up, you’re mixing or non accumulating. Then hoping the ivt gives the goods. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

We talk shit about the SREFs all the time. What is their best use case?

I wouldn’t take them literally but I think that’s a very large shift! Hopefully indicative of things to come at 12z. 

[Interstate]

We are bring this one home!!!

[GreyHat]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I have to! Only thru Monday 1am. Still going.

Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down.

@mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more.

The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables.

I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. 

[TowsonWeather]

46 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

“I won’t be mad if you don’t go” said in the saltiest way possible. 
 

Anyway I hope it does snow a few inches just so I can troll temu GW. 

You’re making the right choice. Smart call. We’ve all seen wayyyy more situations with this level of uncertainty fail or underwhelm. 
 

That said…if the Euro comes in with 2 feet while you’re 30k feet up over Eastern Tennessee today, we’ll all be expecting you back tonight, lol 

[Heisy]

NAM uses NMB physics per met on our discord, wonder if see a 12z NAMMING with how that one member looks

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down.

@mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more.

The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables.

I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. 

I suspect my Nws will be changing after 12z runs, but we'll see. It does get surprisingly cold in these parts compared to my old digs in Northern Anne Arundel County.

[aldie 22]

It's always wise to have a healthy dose of skepticism around here when it comes to snow but some of you are trying way too hard...clearly a few models are seeing something, it doesn't make them right or wrong though...we will find out soon enough 

[Interstate]

I see Gray Hat is in a trolling mood like usual. 

[TowsonWeather]

Unless there are massive shifts at this point, I think we’re at the point where we have to give the GFS its flowers for this one. 
 

Even if the ground truth ends up not being impressive for some or all of us, it’s clear the GFS had the right synoptic idea for this storm waaaaaaaay ahead of other models - and it’s also been super consistent. As much as we shit on it, this is a reminder that it’s a global weather model that should be paid attention to.

[GreyHat]

We are having heavy thunderstorm here Magnolia Delaware.  Like to see that instability in the Sunday storm. Maybe that would help you all out. Any possibility of thunder during it?

[NorthArlington101]

Unless there are massive shifts at this point, I think we’re at the point where we have to give the GFS its flowers for this one. 
 
Even if the ground truth ends up not being impressive for some or all of us, it’s clear the GFS had the right synoptic idea for this storm waaaaaaaay ahead of other models - and it’s also been super consistent. As much as we shit on it, this is a reminder that it’s a global weather model that should be paid attention to.

If I don’t get at least 6” the only thing the GFS will get is hate

[wasnow215]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Current Srefs vs last run. Lol. Hello GFS! 1st Gfs confirmation. 

The problem is that's a worse model than GFS especially at this range lol once it gets inside three hours it's terrific

[ravensrule]

14 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down.

@mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more.

The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables.

I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. 

I can’t figure out if there is more shit in your toilet or your posts. 

[Terpeast]

High end updated from LWX (low end is 0-T of course haha)

[GreyHat]

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I can’t figure out if there is more shit in your toilet or your posts. 

Can't help you you drool over maps that show unrealistic amounts of snow.

The crap in my toilet is as bad as your Ravens. 

[WxUSAF]

@GreyHat you’ve now posted comments about current weather in 2 different threads, neither of which is an obs thread 

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

High end updated from LWX (low end is 0-T of course haha)

Cold chasing precip, increasing sun angle, a rapid developing coastal that’s 100 miles east of OC, and a reliance on an IVT/Norlun…just our kinda storm.

[stormtracker]

20 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

We are having heavy thunderstorm here Magnolia Delaware.  Like to see that instability in the Sunday storm. Maybe that would help you all out. Any possibility of thunder during it?

Looks dry

[stormtracker]

21 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I see Gray Hat is in a trolling mood like usual. 

He’s been going around leaving X reactions. So dumb. 

[anotherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

He’s been going around leaving X reactions. So dumb. 

But he works at the White House.

[CAPE]

The EPS and CMC ens are very similar with snow amounts across the region. Have the heavier precip just off/along the coast to the NE.

[87storms]

26 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down.

@mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more.

The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables.

I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening. 

Mother Nature > reverse psychology

[NorthArlington101]

The EPS and CMC ens are very similar with snow amounts across the region. Has the heavier precip just off/along the coast to the NE.

You gotta like your spot for this one. How is your guest bedroom situation?

[GreyHat]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@GreyHat you’ve now posted comments about current weather in 2 different threads, neither of which is an obs thread 

So, your point? I asked a question, or can't you answer the question?