AmericanWxFreak Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 P7 and P26 on the rocks please . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 We wait for Dr. No: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 WPC Discussion: ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...Day 3...*** Nor'easter develops off Mid-Atlantic Coast late Sunday withimpacts in the Northeast through Monday ***Complex phasing is expected to result in coastal low developmentoff the Mid-Atlantic coast later Sunday with rapid intensificationas it shifts northeast Sunday night/Monday. Guidance is somewhatcoming into consensus with a surface low track east of where theGFS and west of where the EC have been. The preferred track remainswith the EC-AIFS which the 00Z run did nudge south a bit for Sundaynight. The extent of the precip shield will be critical to heavysnow banding on the NW/W side of the low. Non-uniform precip shielddepiction from guidance such as the EC is likely given the complexinteraction of mid-level and low level low centers. The Day 3 snowprobs for >6" are 40-60% for central MD through southeast PA,southern NJ and much of the Delmarva Peninsula. The rapid lowdevelopment and approach of rather strong surface high pressureto Ontario will lead to a sprawling wind field over the easternU.S. which will enhance snow impacts under heavy TROWAL bands.Please stay tuned for further details.The greater confidence is for upslope snow on the centralAppalachians in NW flow on the back side of the system Sundaynight. Great Lakes moisture encounters the topographical lift withDay 3 snow probs for >6" 40-80% above about 1500ft to the AlleghenyFront in WV and far western MD.Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 hours ago, jayyy said: Poor Millville is at the weather desk right now staring at the GFS/GEFS and the Euro spitting out a 6” IVT dump on Baltimore thinking… what in the actual fuck Actually, just woke up. I’m on day shift 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Hey all can we not tell folks to go tf away for asking questions? @clskinsfan lol 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS It wasn't quite done.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I have my doubts about the totals at DCA. Currently, the lowest forecast temperature is 33 degrees at 7 am Monday. If the forecast temperature goes lower, I'll reconsider. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: I have my doubts about the totals at DCA. Currently, the lowest forecast temperature is 33 degrees at 7 am Monday. If the forecast temperature goes lower, I'll reconsider. Yeah the ratios probably won't be 10:1. I'd probably go with 70% of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 The best thing is the GFS has held with the farther west higher totals. It’s been pretty damn roc steady now for a couple days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 8 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: I have my doubts about the totals at DCA. Currently, the lowest forecast temperature is 33 degrees at 7 am Monday. If the forecast temperature goes lower, I'll reconsider. Depends on what model you look at. Gfs has dc down to 32 by 15z Sunday. And evap cooling will do its thing and make things colder for places where it’s snowing. Won’t be 10:1, but it will snow even at 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Euro still weak with the main coastal, but gets us good with the IVT on the back side 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 WB 6Z EURO AI did tick west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro still weak with the main coastal, but gets us good with the IVT on the back side Good morning! Is it “Houston we have a problem” good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 WB 6Z EURO; holding firm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning! Is it “Houston we have a problem” good? Not gfs level good. Light rain/snow all day before ivt kicks in. Which doesn’t happen until after 4, and maybe .5” qpf from ivt with temps marginal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 We are well below average in temps in Feb…near normal precip now and no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Can’t believe GFS and euro are still so different. The have to give at 12z today. Something does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Big differences still at 6Z between WB GFS and EURO. See you at 12Z! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Can’t believe GFS and euro are still so different. The have to give at 12z today. Something does Split them down the middle, and account for temps, perhaps 3-5" for us and 4-8"+ DC and northeast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 So it would seem at this stage of the game, the forecast is 5-18”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Great to see some clarity this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 8 minutes ago, Ji said: We are well below average in temps in Feb…near normal precip now and no snow How is this relevant to a storm that is in the future? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Split them down the middle, and account for temps, perhaps 3-5" for us and 4-8"+ DC and northeast Hate to sound like Ji, but 3-5” is almost not worth it. Need more than that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I'm going. Too much unreliability. Marginal temps the GFS the only one giving pause. Risk Reward ratio is off. I just tried to subtly bring up not going and the sadness in his voice was only tempered by the seething anger in his eyes. If I stayed here and got 3" of wet snow.... It's just too uncertain. Extreme case would be just getting back on a plane and coming right back tomm night...and I would. Maybe. Houston, we have a problem I'm not checking this place after I land in Houston 3 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Latest from LWX 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm going. Too much unreliability. Marginal temps the GFS the only one giving pause. Risk Reward ratio is off. I just tried to subtly bring up not going and the sadness in his voice was only tempered by the seething anger in his eyes. If I stayed here and got 3" of wet snow.... It's just too uncertain. Extreme case would be just getting back on a plane and coming right back tomm night...and I would. Maybe. Houston, we have a problem I'm not checking this place after I land in Houston If it snows, we will tag you in our deck pics. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Big differences still at 6Z between WB GFS and EURO. See you at 12Z! I don’t know if I ever remember THIS much disagreement 48 hours out…..GFS been down bad for a long time but please, one time, be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 “I won’t be mad if you don’t go” said in the saltiest way possible. Anyway I hope it does snow a few inches just so I can troll temu GW. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, stormtracker said: “I won’t be mad if you don’t go” said in the saltiest way possible. Anyway I hope it does snow a few inches just so I can troll temu GW. Shit I hope dc gets 20, if they do you’d be on the way back anyways. Seems almost statiscally impossible at this point the gfs has this magically nailed while others look so much different… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: “I won’t be mad if you don’t go” said in the saltiest way possible. Anyway I hope it does snow a few inches just so I can troll temu GW. This is the way. Not worth it to make life more difficult. But maybe it will snow just enough to let Diet Coke dollar bill George be wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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