Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[AmericanWxFreak]

P7 and P26 on the rocks please


.

[Weather Will]

We wait for Dr. No:

[snowfan]

WPC Discussion:

...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
Day 3...

*** Nor'easter develops off Mid-Atlantic Coast late Sunday with
impacts in the Northeast through Monday ***


Complex phasing is expected to result in coastal low development
off the Mid-Atlantic coast later Sunday with rapid intensification
as it shifts northeast Sunday night/Monday. Guidance is somewhat
coming into consensus with a surface low track east of where the
GFS and west of where the EC have been. The preferred track remains
with the EC-AIFS which the 00Z run did nudge south a bit for Sunday
night. The extent of the precip shield will be critical to heavy
snow banding on the NW/W side of the low. Non-uniform precip shield
depiction from guidance such as the EC is likely given the complex
interaction of mid-level and low level low centers. The Day 3 snow
probs for >6" are 40-60% for central MD through southeast PA,
southern NJ and much of the Delmarva Peninsula. The rapid low
development and approach of rather strong surface high pressure
to Ontario will lead to a sprawling wind field over the eastern
U.S. which will enhance snow impacts under heavy TROWAL bands.
Please stay tuned for further details.

The greater confidence is for upslope snow on the central
Appalachians in NW flow on the back side of the system Sunday
night. Great Lakes moisture encounters the topographical lift with
Day 3 snow probs for >6" 40-80% above about 1500ft to the Allegheny
Front in WV and far western MD.


Jackson

[MillvilleWx]

5 hours ago, jayyy said:

Poor Millville is at the weather desk right now staring at the GFS/GEFS and the Euro spitting out a 6” IVT dump on Baltimore thinking… what in the actual fuck

Actually, just woke up. I’m on day shift  

[mappy]

Hey all can we not tell folks to go tf away for asking questions? @clskinsfan lol

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS

It wasn't quite done..

[arlwx12]

I have my doubts about the totals at DCA.

Currently, the lowest forecast temperature is 33 degrees at 7 am Monday.

If the forecast temperature goes lower, I'll reconsider.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

I have my doubts about the totals at DCA.

Currently, the lowest forecast temperature is 33 degrees at 7 am Monday.

If the forecast temperature goes lower, I'll reconsider.

Yeah the ratios probably won't be 10:1. I'd probably go with 70% of that

[LeesburgWx]

The best thing is the GFS has held with the farther west higher totals. It’s been pretty damn roc steady now for a couple days. 

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

I have my doubts about the totals at DCA.

Currently, the lowest forecast temperature is 33 degrees at 7 am Monday.

If the forecast temperature goes lower, I'll reconsider.

Depends on what model you look at. Gfs has dc down to 32 by 15z Sunday. And evap cooling will do its thing and make things colder for places where it’s snowing. Won’t be 10:1, but it will snow even at 33

[stormtracker]

Euro still weak with the main coastal, but gets us good with the IVT on the back side

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI did tick west.

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro still weak with the main coastal, but gets us good with the IVT on the back side

Good morning! Is it “Houston we have a problem” good?

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO; holding firm.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Good morning! Is it “Houston we have a problem” good?

Not gfs level good. Light rain/snow all day before ivt kicks in. Which doesn’t happen until after 4, and maybe .5” qpf from ivt with temps marginal 

[Ji]

We are well below average in temps in Feb…near normal precip now and no snow

[LeesburgWx]

Can’t believe GFS and euro are still so different. The have to give at 12z today. Something does

[Weather Will]

Big differences still at 6Z between WB GFS and EURO. See you at 12Z!

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Can’t believe GFS and euro are still so different. The have to give at 12z today. Something does

Split them down the middle, and account for temps, perhaps 3-5" for us and 4-8"+ DC and northeast

[Scraff]

So it would seem at this stage of the game, the forecast is 5-18”. 

[dailylurker]

Great to see some clarity this morning 

[snowfan]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

We are well below average in temps in Feb…near normal precip now and no snow

How is this relevant to a storm that is in the future?

[LeesburgWx]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Split them down the middle, and account for temps, perhaps 3-5" for us and 4-8"+ DC and northeast

Hate to sound like Ji, but 3-5” is almost not worth it. Need more than that

[stormtracker]

I'm going.  Too much unreliability.  Marginal temps the GFS the only one giving pause.   Risk Reward ratio is off.   I just tried to subtly bring up not going and the sadness in his voice was only tempered by the seething anger in his eyes.   If I stayed here and got 3" of wet snow....   It's just too uncertain.    Extreme case would be just getting back on a plane and coming right back tomm night...and I would.  Maybe.  

Houston, we have a problem     I'm not checking this place after I land in Houston

[WVclimo]

Latest from LWX

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going.  Too much unreliability.  Marginal temps the GFS the only one giving pause.   Risk Reward ratio is off.   I just tried to subtly bring up not going and the sadness in his voice was only tempered by the seething anger in his eyes.   If I stayed here and got 3" of wet snow....   It's just too uncertain.    Extreme case would be just getting back on a plane and coming right back tomm night...and I would.  Maybe.  

Houston, we have a problem     I'm not checking this place after I land in Houston

If it snows, we will tag you in our deck pics.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Big differences still at 6Z between WB GFS and EURO. See you at 12Z!

I don’t know if I ever remember THIS much disagreement 48 hours out…..GFS been down bad for a long time but please, one time, be right. 

[stormtracker]

“I won’t be mad if you don’t go” said in the saltiest way possible. 
 

Anyway I hope it does snow a few inches just so I can troll temu GW. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

“I won’t be mad if you don’t go” said in the saltiest way possible. 
 

Anyway I hope it does snow a few inches just so I can troll temu GW. 

Shit I hope dc gets 20, if they do you’d be on the way back anyways. Seems almost statiscally impossible at this point the gfs has this magically nailed while others look so much different…

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

“I won’t be mad if you don’t go” said in the saltiest way possible. 
 

Anyway I hope it does snow a few inches just so I can troll temu GW. 

This is the way.  Not worth it to make life more difficult. But maybe it will snow just enough to let Diet Coke dollar bill George be wrong