87storms Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Dc getting more snow than Frederick makes this even more believable. I’m in. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Gfs just showing what euro ai had like 3 days ago. Gfs just running on old data haha 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: I give it a one in ten chance but i'll take those odds. It’s less than one percent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Wasn't done yet in my last image. RIP my roof. This is the dumbest map I've ever seen. In what world would this actually verify. But god damn it's fun to look at. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, ravensrule said: I know it's the GFS, but how many of you secretly think we have a chance at this?. I mean I shared some pics earlier of the euro’s look and to summarize, it really isn’t unfair to say this is a delicate setup that can still boom with some minor adjustments even to the most hostile model depictions. Now the GFS goes ahead and decides to make as perfect of a set of adjustments as possible to improve its already ideal look… don’t really buy that. But something more sane that gives us a great storm? I don’t think it would be crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Stranger things have happened LOL. GFS not backing down. It’s either going to get clowned or was on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, osfan24 said: It’s less than one percent. You think. It's an all time historic blizzard. It's less than one tenth of one percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 If this ends up being nothing (likely) I feel like there really will be no point in ever looking at this model again. If it shows a BECS in NAM range and then loses it 6 hours later why would I ever even consider using it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Yesterday when the GFS was spitting out the 40" + totals for the northern neck--->SBY corridor I was thinking... wouldn't it be hilarious if it moved about 50-100 NW with those totals? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: I know it's the GFS, but how many of you secretly think we have a chance at this?. I could see us getting snow from the upper level low setup, but the coastal may cause some aches and pains, even more so than the 4v4 hoops seshes I’ve been playing lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Honest question: have we ever seen a major model so far out on a solitary limb like this at a 3-day lead? I can't remember anything like this in recent memory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The AI GFS nudging a good bit West is, at the very least somewhat encouraging? It and its physics-based counterpart aren't exactly lockstep, and the AI's shift wasnt minute like it tends to be. I appreciate any support I guess. This is about the range we started truly reeling in Jan 3, 2022, the last real GFS coup I remember. I can't think of any other event to hang a hopium hat on. I guess NYC only got Jan 2016 at the last minute but at least all models showed a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: If this ends up being nothing (likely) I feel like there really will be no point in ever looking at this model again. If it shows a BECS in NAM range and then loses it 6 hours later why would I ever even consider using it. Well the are overhauling it later this year, so you won't need to look at it for a winter storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: (not that I'm buying the GFS, just surprised that it doubled down and went west instead of shifting east like the other models) Would love to think that helps its case but unfortunately we've seen it double down on being wrong before. Either way that run is for the books of examples of a classic DC jackpot and the associated dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: If this ends up being nothing (likely) I feel like there really will be no point in ever looking at this model again. If it shows a BECS in NAM range and then loses it 6 hours later why would I ever even consider using it. Ideally this is just a testament to how incredibly delicate this setup is, meaning that models likely still don't have a good handle on things? Could just be weenie copium though 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Don't think the CMC will be as good as it's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Wasn't done yet in my last image. RIP my roof. The JB storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, paxpatriot said: Honest question: have we ever seen a major model so far out on a solitary limb like this at a 3-day lead? I can't remember anything like this in recent memory. Yes the gfs every storm this winter 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 GFS got confused and decided “DC snow hole” meant “DC gets destroyed with snow” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, paxpatriot said: Honest question: have we ever seen a major model so far out on a solitary limb like this at a 3-day lead? I can't remember anything like this in recent memory. I have been doing this longer than most but I'm old and don't have a great memory, but i can't remember anything this close in. @psuhoffmanhas a much better memory. What say you?. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Everytime I give up on thie threat, I come back to 5 new pages in 10 minutes with a better GFS run. This model sucks ass (unless it's right) but how can it be THIS WRONG so close in. Like wtf. How can it show 30-40 inches in 3 days from now and no other model supports it? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Canadian is a bit different than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnow93 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I know it's the GFS, but how many of you secretly think we have a chance at this?. The way I look at it is like this.. even a .050 batter will get a hit against a Cy Young winner once in a blue moon. I could roll snake eyes on two 20-sided dice.. Just need to get very lucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 i don't think i've ever seen the pink horizontal lines on the left almost touch the temp/dew point lines 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, TSSN+ said: Yes the gfs every storm this winter It's been pretty terrible overall but this feels like next level--even for it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The GFS has literally traded places with the NAM. It's unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The CMC and GFS aren't that different at 500 mb at 90 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I know it's the GFS, but how many of you secretly think we have a chance at this?. I mean...my head KNOWS this is nonsense. But my heart...my heart sees snow maps like this 2.5 days before the event and goes pitter patter. No matter how much I tell myself this can't happen, and how much I KNOW IT WON'T, it's still gonna hurt like hell when the GFS folds like a tissue paper shar pei at an origami convention 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I appreciate any support I guess. This is about the range we started truly reeling in Jan 3, 2022, the last real GFS coup I remember. I can't think of any other event to hang a hopium hat on. I guess NYC only got Jan 2016 at the last minute but at least all models showed a storm. It's been shimmying NW for the past 24 hours. A GFS cave would be completely expected but its AI variant completely whiffing would be less than encouraging for the future of that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The GFS is 2 degrees colder than 06z because of intensity. But, the slp placement is too erratic. This is not a long-term option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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