Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[87storms]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Dc getting more snow than Frederick makes this even more believable. I’m in.

[TSSN+]

Gfs just showing what euro ai had like 3 days ago. Gfs just running on old data haha 

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

I give it a one in ten chance but i'll take those odds.

It’s less than one percent.

[Wetbulbs88]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Wasn't done yet in my last image. RIP my roof.

This is the dumbest map I've ever seen. In what world would this actually verify.

But god damn it's fun to look at. 

[baltosquid]

Just now, ravensrule said:

I know it's the GFS, but how many of you secretly think we have a chance at this?. 

I mean I shared some pics earlier of the euro’s look and to summarize, it really isn’t unfair to say this is a delicate setup that can still boom with some minor adjustments even to the most hostile model depictions. Now the GFS goes ahead and decides to make as perfect of a set of adjustments as possible to improve its already ideal look… don’t really buy that. But something more sane that gives us a great storm? I don’t think it would be crazy.

[Climate175]

Stranger things have happened LOL. GFS not backing down. It’s either going to get clowned or was on to something. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, osfan24 said:

It’s less than one percent.

You think. It's an all time historic blizzard. It's less than one tenth of one percent. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

If this ends up being nothing (likely) I feel like there really will be no point in ever looking at this model again.  If it shows a BECS in NAM range and then loses it 6 hours later why would I ever even consider using it.

[Paleocene]

Yesterday when the GFS was spitting out the 40" + totals for the northern neck--->SBY corridor I was thinking... wouldn't it be hilarious if it moved about 50-100 NW with those totals? 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

I know it's the GFS, but how many of you secretly think we have a chance at this?. 

I could see us getting snow from the upper level low setup, but the coastal may cause some aches and pains, even more so than the 4v4 hoops seshes I’ve been playing lately.

[paxpatriot]

Honest question: have we ever seen a major model so far out on a solitary limb like this at a 3-day lead? I can't remember anything like this in recent memory.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The AI GFS nudging a good bit West is, at the very least somewhat encouraging? It and its physics-based counterpart aren't exactly lockstep, and the AI's shift wasnt minute like it tends to be. 

I appreciate any support I guess. This is about the range we started truly reeling in Jan 3, 2022, the last real GFS coup I remember. I can't think of any other event to hang a hopium hat on. I guess NYC only got Jan 2016 at the last minute but at least all models showed a storm.

[ravensrule]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If this ends up being nothing (likely) I feel like there really will be no point in ever looking at this model again.  If it shows a BECS in NAM range and then loses it 6 hours later why would I ever even consider using it.

Well the are overhauling it later this year, so you won't need to look at it for a winter storm again. 

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

(not that I'm buying the GFS, just surprised that it doubled down and went west instead of shifting east like the other models)

Would love to think that helps its case but unfortunately we've seen it double down on being wrong before. Either way that run is for the books of examples of a classic DC jackpot and the associated dynamics.

[bncho]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If this ends up being nothing (likely) I feel like there really will be no point in ever looking at this model again.  If it shows a BECS in NAM range and then loses it 6 hours later why would I ever even consider using it.

Ideally this is just a testament to how incredibly delicate this setup is, meaning that models likely still don't have a good handle on things? Could just be weenie copium though

[SnowenOutThere]

Don't think the CMC will be as good as it's 0z run. 

[blizzardmeiser]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Wasn't done yet in my last image. RIP my roof.

The JB storm 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

Honest question: have we ever seen a major model so far out on a solitary limb like this at a 3-day lead? I can't remember anything like this in recent memory.

Yes the gfs every storm this winter 

[weathercoins]

GFS got confused and decided “DC snow hole” meant “DC gets destroyed with snow”

[ravensrule]

Just now, paxpatriot said:

Honest question: have we ever seen a major model so far out on a solitary limb like this at a 3-day lead? I can't remember anything like this in recent memory.

I have been doing this longer than most but I'm old and don't have a great memory, but i can't remember anything this close in. @psuhoffmanhas a much better memory. What say you?. 

[LeesburgWx]

Everytime I give up on thie threat, I come back to 5 new pages in 10 minutes with a better GFS run. This model sucks ass (unless it's right) but how can it be THIS WRONG so close in. Like wtf. How can it show 30-40 inches in 3 days from now and no other model supports it? 

[rjvanals]

Canadian is a bit different than the GFS 

[MDSnow93]

4 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I know it's the GFS, but how many of you secretly think we have a chance at this?. 

The way I look at it is like this.. even a .050 batter will get a hit against a Cy Young winner once in a blue moon. I could roll snake eyes on two 20-sided dice.. Just need to get very lucky

[paulythegun]

i don't think i've ever seen the pink horizontal lines on the left almost touch the temp/dew point lines

 

[paxpatriot]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Yes the gfs every storm this winter 

It's been pretty terrible overall but this feels like next level--even for it.

[LeesburgWx]

The GFS has literally traded places with the NAM. It's unbelievable. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The CMC and GFS aren't that different at 500 mb at 90 hours. 

[TowsonWeather]

7 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I know it's the GFS, but how many of you secretly think we have a chance at this?. 

I mean...my head KNOWS this is nonsense. But my heart...my heart sees snow maps like this 2.5 days before the event and goes pitter patter.

No matter how much I tell myself this can't happen, and how much I KNOW IT WON'T, it's still gonna hurt like hell when the GFS folds like a tissue paper shar pei at an origami convention 

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I appreciate any support I guess. This is about the range we started truly reeling in Jan 3, 2022, the last real GFS coup I remember. I can't think of any other event to hang a hopium hat on. I guess NYC only got Jan 2016 at the last minute but at least all models showed a storm.

It's been shimmying NW for the past 24 hours. A GFS cave would be completely expected but its AI variant completely whiffing would be less than encouraging for the future of that model. 

[stormy]

The GFS is 2 degrees colder than 06z because of intensity.

But, the slp placement is too erratic.  This is not a long-term option.