Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[WxUSAF]

Apparently there was some storm recon plane data fed into the 18z cycle. More coming for 0z.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good trends, want to see that hold/continue through tomorrow night

This is all we can hope for.  As was mentioned earlier, there are a lot of vorts flying around in there which complicates the setup.  It's pretty obvious what we ideally want is for something to phase and create a deep/intense enough low that can tuck toward the coast more and also draw in some colder air.  The 18Z GFS and 12Z CMC showed how that can occur.  We don't want some broad, dull trough that scoots a weak wave out to sea.

[Herb@MAWS]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good happy hour. I’m not going to kick a 2-4” event out of bed if that’s what it ends up being. 

If you end up being 2-4”, you may be kicked out of bed. 

———-

Oh, and only a high of 44 today, imby Columbia, felt chilly. But now at 43 it feels good outside.

[MillvilleWx]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Apparently there was some storm recon plane data fed into the 18z cycle. More coming for 0z.

It was sampling the next disturbance in the Pacific which would be our main wave for this one. I’m still in the camp of getting a little something, but the stars have to align to get anything truly appreciable. I’ll take anything that falls, so I hope we get hammered beyond belief, but I’m skeptical on the monster scenarios, unless we see models converge in the next 48 hrs. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It was sampling the next disturbance in the Pacific which would be our main wave for this one. I’m still in the camp of getting a little something, but the stars have to align to get anything truly appreciable. I’ll take anything that falls, so I hope we get hammered beyond belief, but I’m skeptical on the monster scenarios, unless we see models converge in the next 48 hrs. 

That the models shifted in our favor after that sampling and ingest is a good sign

[Ji]

Apparently there was some storm recon plane data fed into the 18z cycle. More coming for 0z.

Let’s hope Jb is flying it

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Let’s hope Jb is flying it

lol he might try seeding that mf'er

[Jake Wx]

wow decent uptrend on the 18z EPS

[Weather Will]

JB still favors a DC-BOS special but of course he liked the last week storm too....

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

JB still favors a DC-BOS special but of course he liked the last week storm too....

He's never met a storm he didnt like.

[CAPE]

This thread has got the mojo. @Maestrobjwa

Now don't fuck it up.

 

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

He's never met a storm he didnt like.

Top analogs for next winter going to be 02-03, 09-10, 82-83, and something from the 1890s.

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Top analogs for next winter going to be 02-03, 09-10, 82-83, and something from the 1890s.

OMG, can you imagine how much it actually snowed in the 1890’s. We won’t be able to leave our house for months. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Going to make a relatively brief synoptic analysis of why I actually sorta like this setup IF we get a H5 setup akin to the GFS or CMC.

 

[clskinsfan]

Everything is looking pretty similar as far as precip goes. There are differences on how the models get there. And the GEM is a major outlier. But I think its at least a pretty safe bet that we are going to see some snow at least. 

[Ji]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This thread has got the mojo. @Maestrobjwa

Now don't fuck it up.

 

you know he is a christian right?

[Ji]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Top analogs for next winter going to be 02-03, 09-10, 82-83, and something from the 1890s.

why are we not talking early March yet. I am seeing 1993,1958,2014 stuff lol

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

you know he is a christian right?

Ok. So?

[SnowenOutThere]

Why I like the GFS and CMC 

Part 1: 500mb wind analysis 

Both the GFS and CMC have a potent ULL at the H5 layer dive southward and close off from the prevailing flow. This directs a 500mb jet streak to develop directly to the south of this closed off low and if the strength/placement of the the ULL is correct it puts us directly in the LER (left exit region) of a rather intense jet streak which promotes upper level diffluence

I mean look at that! It's nearly perfectly placed to help us squeeze out whatever moisture we have in the column by lifting it upwards. The impact of our jet streak induced diffluence is easily seen in our vorticity map. 

Notice how the vorticity nearly perfectly follows where that jet streak is located. This is a great sign that we could get some good lift throughout the atmosphere! If we are nitpicking then I would generally want to see a ULL that is both further south, a bit west (though too far starts to risk thermal issues), but most importantly is more neg tilt and stronger! 

Part 2: Moisture Transport and Low Level Winds

Since the DGZ seems to be located around 700mb on the soundings and we have lift from the 900mb layer up into the DGZ we are looking to see moisture transport anywhere between 900-700mb. Luckily that is exactly what the GFS offers! 

We can see on the 850mb wind maps we have a closed low off the NC coast which promotes easterly winds off the Atlantic which helps provide us a decent moisture fetch. This same principal applies for the layers of 925-700ish mb but the wind becomes more out of the south; which though is worse than directly from the Atlantic it's still not terrible. 

Part 3: Baroclinicity

There is a rather pronounced baroclinic boundary for this low to feed off of and intensify in accordance with it and the favorable H5 dynamics.   

As we can see we have a rather strong thermal gradient right off NC with temperatures reaching near 70 next to a 20+ degree temp drop to the NW. My only concern is that this gradient is more W-E focused where we would rather have a N/S gradient to help the H5 pull the storm up the coast.

In conclusion

There is a lot to like about this setup IF the GFS/CMC is right! While placement of where the coastal low is captured and various details which are very impactful are yet to be worked out as long as we have these players on the field we got a chance! However, this is not a post necessarily stating I think this is likely or the most plausible outcome (we really need the Euro to come aboard) but simply analyzing what this storm has the potential to be. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Why I like the GFS and CMC 

Part 1: 500mb wind analysis 

Both the GFS and CMC have a potent ULL at the H5 layer dive southward and close off from the prevailing flow. This directs a 500mb jet streak to develop directly to the south of this closed off low and if the strength/placement of the the ULL is correct it puts us directly in the LER (left exit region) of a rather intense jet streak which promotes upper level diffluence

I mean look at that! It's nearly perfectly placed to help us squeeze out whatever moisture we have in the column by lifting it upwards. The impact of our jet streak induced diffluence is easily seen in our vorticity map. 

Notice how the vorticity nearly perfectly follows where that jet streak is located. This is a great sign that we could get some good lift throughout the atmosphere! If we are nitpicking then I would generally want to see a ULL that is both further south, a bit west (though too far starts to risk thermal issues), but most importantly is more neg tilt and stronger! 

Part 2: Moisture Transport and Low Level Winds

Since the DGZ seems to be located around 700mb on the soundings and we have lift from the 900mb layer up into the DGZ we are looking to see moisture transport anywhere between 900-700mb. Luckily that is exactly what the GFS offers! 

We can see on the 850mb wind maps we have a closed low off the NC coast which promotes easterly winds off the Atlantic which helps provide us a decent moisture fetch. This same principal applies for the layers of 925-700ish mb but the wind becomes more out of the south; which though is worse than directly from the Atlantic it's still not terrible. 

Part 3: Baroclinicity

There is a rather pronounced baroclinic boundary for this low to feed off of and intensify in accordance with it and the favorable H5 dynamics.   

As we can see we have a rather strong thermal gradient right off NC with temperatures reaching near 70 next to a 20+ degree temp drop to the NW. My only concern is that this gradient is more W-E focused where we would rather have a N/S gradient to help the H5 pull the storm up the coast.

In conclusion

There is a lot to like about this setup IF the GFS/CMC is right! While placement of where the coastal low is captured and various details which are very impactful are yet to be worked out as long as we have these players on the field we got a chance! However, this is not a post necessarily stating I think this is likely or the most plausible outcome (we really need the Euro to come aboard) but simply analyzing what this storm has the potential to be. 

Great analysis! For jet streak placements, I look at 200-300 mb for that.

 

it’s close to a classic double jet streak system where the SLP deepens under the left exit region of the jet streak off the carolinas overlapped with the right rear entrance region of the other jet streak off new england.

same with cmc

euro, though, isn’t quite a double jet streak - more like one long jet stream rounding the lw trough

 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Great analysis! For jet streak placements, I look at 200-300 mb for that.

 

it’s close to a classic double jet streak system where the SLP deepens under the left exit region of the jet streak off the carolinas overlapped with the right rear entrance region of the other jet streak off new england.

same with cmc

euro, though, isn’t quite a double jet streak - more like one long jet stream rounding the lw trough

 

Thanks for the advice to look up a bit higher for the jet streaks. I used to do that but I forgot and assumed H5 lmao. Anyways, the real thing that my analysis made me realize is that if the GFS/CMC were to shift 50-100 miles west we actually have some real potential here. I mean right now we can see how the jet streaks are too far displaced east and subsequently so is the low pressure. An adjustment west wouldn't be crazy and we'd suddenly be looking at a dangerous setup! Of course, that would require something going right for us which seems... hard to come by recently. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Thanks for the advice to look up a bit higher for the jet streaks. I used to do that but I forgot and assumed H5 lmao. Anyways, the real thing that my analysis made me realize is that if the GFS/CMC were to shift 50-100 miles west we actually have some real potential here. I mean right now we can see how the jet streaks are too far displaced east and subsequently so is the low pressure. An adjustment west wouldn't be crazy and we'd suddenly be looking at a dangerous setup! Of course, that would require something going right for us which seems... hard to come by recently. 

Exactly! You’re really getting it. This is why we need blocking to slow down the flow a bit, and La Nina winters are notorious for the northern stream to push the jet streaks too far out resulting in suppression or fish storms (and that NC blizzard). There are exceptions to this like Jan 1996 and 2000, and there’s a small chance that this one could be added to this list. That is, if this whole thing trends west and not the typical east leading up to game time. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NBM para...this looks all too familiar

[Nomz]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Apparently there was some storm recon plane data fed into the 18z cycle. More coming for 0z.

lol...

At this point, I'd be happy to settle for a layup 2"

[HighStakes]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z NBM para...this looks all too familiar

Meaningless at this point.

[Ji]

WB 0Z NBM para...this looks all too familiar

Why are you posting such a random useless map

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Why are you posting such a random useless map

Think about who you're replying to. Will posting a map. He probably clears his attachment space once every 45 minutes.

[Weather Will]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Why are you posting such a random useless map

We are all hoping that that GFS/CMC combo is correct; but the current blend forecast keeps the coastal too far east to hit areas west of the Bay.  The trough coming in from the west could give areas west of the Bay a light event.  Reality sucks but it is what it is.  Hopefully the NBM will look better by 0Z tomorrow.

[Amped]

00z runs of the gfs cmc and icon will be telling. They're either going to trend 50 miles nw and put us back in the game or 50 miles SE and take us out of it.

I'm fully prepared for the later of the two.

[Weather Will]

I will stay up for the EURO if the early 0Z suites continue to improve...agree writing on the wall if the ICON/GFS/CMC fizzle at 0Z.