Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Ji]

I don't understand why we treat any of the AI's at this point like we do the traditional models. In their short history have they consistently verified? Seems like to me they give more of an "idea".
 
Mods move to banter if need be. 

The gfs ai is one of the worst performing models I have ever seen

[coastal front]

Every model all day today has ticked better outside the ai and it’s great to finally have the euro tick better as well. Great spot to be headed towards 0z 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI

There's that inverted trough creeping eastward as I suggested it would after 12z runs. By the time it's over, it'll be over the Gulf Stream probably. 

[wasnow215]

We've gotten all the AI maps -can we get the 18z euro map please?

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs ai is one of the worst performing models I have ever seen

Stop looking at so often and stats should improve. 

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs ai is one of the worst performing models I have ever seen

I didn't see AI at first I only saw GFS in your post. This is what I'm saying. Just seems like it's been "welcomed aboard" prematurely especially the GFS AI

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

 One for the digital snow memory books.

 

Wait I’ve seen a map just like this one not too long ago when Outer Banks was burried. 

[mitchnick]

Euro operational has the inverted trough too

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z at 4am Sunday.

[TSSN+]

I’d take it but, let’s continue to improve 

 

[mitchnick]

Euro's a lot of light snow. Needs to be closer to the coast.

[CAPE]

Improvement

[Terpeast]

Good trends, want to see that hold/continue through tomorrow night

[Paleocene]

Zoomed in 18z europe

[mitchnick]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Zoomed in 18z europe

Kuchera 

[baltosquid]

Feels like the euro is just too fast. A little slower with the energy moving down and across the conus and I think it looks a lot more like the GFS and CMC.

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’d take it but, let’s continue to improve 

 

It's not done snowing at 105

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good trends, want to see that hold/continue through tomorrow night

Yes! We're at a point where there ca't be anymore step backs. It's time for one these to break our way.  

[mitchnick]

To go from 12z to 18z on the Euro proves it's just as jumpy as the rest, albeit more conservative with precip year-round. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z total precip.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Good trends, want to see that hold/continue through tomorrow night

I think the main divergence is in if we can get the coastal to help us out. The 18z Euro shows a solution where we get pretty much no help from the coastal besides aiding in some moisture fetch and instead rely on the H5 dynamics to get any sort of snowfall. Meanwhile, the other camp of the GFS and CMC instead have the coastal prominently help out the H5 max through aiding in lift, moisture transport, and even cold air through the CCB. Is a bit of a egg and chicken game too where a stronger H5 vortmax is more likely to capture/induce a more favorable surface low position.  

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Improvement

Yes a definite improvement. I hope Tonights 00z runs continue the trends we've seen at 18z

[WxUSAF]

Good happy hour. I’m not going to kick a 2-4” event out of bed if that’s what it ends up being. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Good happy hour. I’m not going to kick a 2-4” event out of bed if that’s what it ends up being. 

Are you just repeating what your wife's been telling you all these years?

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good happy hour. I’m not going to kick a 2-4” event out of bed if that’s what it ends up being. 

I let Mitch hit the softballs you lobbed up. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, ravensrule said:

I let Mitch hit the softballs you lobbed up. 

It was a gimme. I thought I'd take it before you.

[LeesburgWx]

Delmarva folks jumping after going from GFS to Euro output. Both are somewhat acceptable up here, at least.

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Delmarva folks jumping after going from GFS to Euro output. Both are somewhat acceptable up here, at least.

Who's jumping? I'm not.

[mitchnick]

Eps

[aldie 22]

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z total precip.

18z euro knows about Stephens City