“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 21z NBM (v.5.0):

Where are those Maine amounts coming from?  I don't think there's a single model showing more than a few spots getting even .5" of qpf.  

 

I got a snow day in any case.......pisses me off though as I could have stayed in PVD or Mattapoisett.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Oh yes, when I got my first FWD car in 1998, it made a world of difference driving in snow, never mind the anti-lock brakes.  You had to work at it to actually fish-tail or wipe out in an open parking out testing things out!

Same experience while test driving a Dodge Stratus in a snow covered parking lot...

[vortex95]

29 minutes ago, George001 said:

Is this storm a Miller A or B?

It's a weird hybrid.  The sfc low formed over the Carolinas but not really a secondary b/c the primary low, if you want to call it one, is quite weak and just has been sitting in place over the ern Great Lakes.  It isn't a clipper type low associated w/ a strong polar jet trough that is steadily moving ESE that phases in w/ a southern stream s/w trough.

There is no real polar jet, but not really something you could call a STJ either!  Just one big solid jet across the center of the CONUS, in the mean anyway if you avg the wavelengths.

Doesn't matter in the end though.  Get the blockbusters any way you can!

[78Blizzard]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 21z NBM (v.5.0):

Doesn't that include some from Wed and Fri?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hearing everything...storm is east, deform developing NW of guidance....been out of the loop and can't trust social media...

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hearing everything...storm is east, deform developing NW of guidance....been out of the loop and can't trust social media...

Same here... I need a real update 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hearing everything...storm is east, deform developing NW of guidance....been out of the loop and can't trust social media...

…bout right

[nianticct]

Banter

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hearing everything...storm is east, deform developing NW of guidance....been out of the loop and can't trust social media...

At this point just roll with it

 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Where are those Maine amounts coming from?  I don't think there's a single model showing more than a few spots getting even .5" of qpf.  

 

I got a snow day in any case.......pisses me off though as I could have stayed in PVD or Mattapoisett.

I'm not sure which model or models are responsible for the snowy Maine NBM figures.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Doesn't that include some from Wed and Fri?

Good catch. I thought I had excluded them. I will repost the correct image shortly. My apologies.

[Greg]

11 minutes ago, FXWX said:

While all of the points made are valid, unless I missed posts, I didn't see posts claiming this would have the same social impacts of the 78... Of course it won't and no one I know was claiming it was, at least that I am aware.  In fact, you can argue that all of the historic storms we talk about, be it blizzards, hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, etc will not have the similar social impacts given today's technology and communication systems.  Will a 1938 hurricane every happened again? Yes, but it won't hit with little or no warning and recovery time frames will be shorter.  So when folks make comparisons to historic events, I think most know full well today's snow removal capabilities are light years ahead of where the were in 1888 and/or 1978.  As Will stated this won't nearly be as long in terms of snow duration.  Are there some atmospheric features that have similarities to 78, as well as other Kocin storms?  Yes.  Are they identical NO, but they are interested to note.

I would say based on the cleanup from last storm 3 weeks ago, it was kind of rough getting those roads cleared. It took 2 to 3 days just with that. Some of the streets were too narrow and cars still weren't plowed out days later. I'd have to say with amounts close to '78 even today would still result in a shutdown that would last several days. Maybe not 6 through the following Saturday like '78 but several days.

[TalcottWx]

Western CT is going to get crushed by banding. 

[weatherwiz]

Time to get some sleep. Aiming to wake up 2-3 AM or maybe a bit after 1. Gotta recharge a bit

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

Western CT is going to get crushed by banding. 

Simsbury area?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Western CT is going to get crushed by banding. 

Maybe bodes well for me

[donsutherland1]

Correct NBM map. I had accidentally used the entire forecast period.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hearing everything...storm is east, deform developing NW of guidance....been out of the loop and can't trust social media...

lol…idk what you want to know. The storm is still on. Some of the globals reigned in QPF a bit…some of the mesos are still juiced. But nothing has really changed with the system…just gotta see how it plays out.

I think the caveats are how quickly the fronto shifts from NYC/CT to SE MA and how much convection wraps into EMA. 

[NeonPeon]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Correct NBM map. I had accidentally used the entire forecast period.

I demand a refund, you promised 3 more inches!

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Correct NBM map. I had accidentally used the entire forecast period.

That's still damn good. I'd sign in a heartbeat. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Correct NBM map. I had accidentally used the entire forecast period.

That cut back here

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

While all of the points made are valid, unless I missed posts, I didn't see posts claiming this would have the same social impacts of the 78... Of course it won't and no one I know was claiming it was, at least that I am aware.  In fact, you can argue that all of the historic storms we talk about, be it blizzards, hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, etc will not have the similar social impacts given today's technology and communication systems.  Will a 1938 hurricane every happened again? Yes, but it won't hit with little or no warning and recovery time frames will be shorter.  So when folks make comparisons to historic events, I think most know full well today's snow removal capabilities are light years ahead of where the were in 1888 and/or 1978.  As Will stated this won't nearly be as long in terms of snow duration.  Are there some atmospheric features that have similarities to 78, as well as other Kocin storms?  Yes.  Are they identical NO, but they are interested to note.

I did discuss the social aspect of thing in my first or two posts on Blizzard of 78 comparisons.  And you bring up the social aspects of things made me think more.

These days it is TMI to the extreme, and so often, people do know not *what* to think concerning the forecast, esp. when it comes to stormy wx.  Oh, *we* know on this forum what is what, but we are a small minority.  The avg person has a tough time w/ wx these days, and I don't blame them!  They have no idea who to trust, or even where to starts to try to get the best wx info.

And w/ the hype out of control, ppl get frustrated and start to tune it out.  Once again, i don't blame them at all.  They are so sick of every wx event treated as if the end of world is nigh, who wouldn't get fed up???
 
This is why I think now, the social sciences concerning wx are now the most important.  Our forecasts have come such a long way and are so good now, that's not the problem anymore.  The problem lies w/ presentation and communicating that info, and having "too many cooks in the kitchen" -- armchair wx ppl on social media thinking they are the "da bomb", among other things, all vying for attention and trying to monetize their content!

Not sure how to address these social issues, and it is a very complex problem.  But just understanding why things they way they are is a good start!

[donsutherland1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That cut back here

That's v.5.0 which is more conservative with snowfall predictions than v.4.3. V.5.0 will become operational this spring.

[kdxken]

19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Where are those Maine amounts coming from?  I don't think there's a single model showing more than a few spots getting even .5" of qpf.  

 

I got a snow day in any case.......pisses me off though as I could have stayed in PVD or Mattapoisett.

Yeah that's going to hurt. Wait a couple hours and head back down. It will be an adventure.

[TalcottWx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Simsbury area?

I think pivot might be west of me. I'm just not buying the sudden death of this band 

[jbenedet]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Correct NBM map. I had accidentally used the entire forecast period.

The numbers on LI are too low. Nemo did 24-30” on central LI and that was with a sharp cutoff in NY. Basically advisory level event just west of NYC. No deform snows just outside of NYC.
 

This system in much better location and antecedent airmass.

Losing basically nothing to white rain, rain or slot with this. Need to see range 24 - 30”; locally 3 ft. 

[NeonPeon]

I'm going to have a hard time going to sleep, I am going from radar to window watching like I'm a dog whose owner is about to come home. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

I'm going to have a hard time going to sleep, I am going from radar to window watching like I'm a dog whose owner is about to come home. 

I'm in bed now about to sign off until midnight.. then up for the count 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

I'm going to have a hard time going to sleep, I am going from radar to window watching like I'm a dog whose owner is about to come home. 

That's how I was up in SLK during the SN+ the other day. I didn't dare mention it to my wife. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wachusett plans on opening at 11AM.   Good luck to that.