“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Go Kart Mozart]

Those echoes moving westward over NJ?  What's up with that?

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Watch Ray get 14" Scott gets 23" Steve gets 28" and Paul and Kevin are in the jack.

We'd never hear the end of it! LOL

I expect like 14-17".

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah that more I look at this ... the GFS can be at minimum be questionable.    

The upside is that QPF may be underdone the NW quadrant of the 700 to 500 mb cyclonic arc

yup and I've been saying this.. I think 18z comes back a bit and someone gets a surprise band to the NW

[CTWeatherFreak]

Blizzard warnings up now  for Hartford and Tolland counties!

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

How are we looking? Thinking your elevation is going to help you vs me down in the valley. 

Nah you might get a 2 inch shadow but then again it could blow into your hood. 12 plus with high end 20 seems likely 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

That's how it will play out. Always go with the model that show's the least amount of snow, as it's usually correct, based on past history. Especially a global.

Good luck with that 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Eastern areas would be shut down from snow and power outages.

All areas will be shut down 

[Spanks45]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…enjoy the blizzard bro. 

 

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Nice melt. 

12z at this point, outside the 3k and RAP has us underperforming by quite a bit WOR...concerns are valid, especially with a deepening system, well south of the area. Typically you would see maxes in Northern Jersey, even by the NY/CT border and then again EOR, towards RI, I suspect Long Island ends up overperforming. Here I wouldn't be surprised to see 8-12, which is a great storm for the past few years, plus the wind will be fun, but definitely has underperformer vibes with regards to what the NWS is advertising

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nah you might get a 2 inch shadow but then again it could blow into your hood. 12 plus with high end 20 seems likely 

Yup…elevation won’t mean much with this imo. Marginal events…for sure. Not a blizzard Nor’easter. 

[Connecticut Appleman]

16 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yup, I have a feeling they may join Box and Upton and upgrade, just so the whole state is covered, can't imagine eastern Litchfield cty doesn't at least experience blizzard conditions, latest AFD even mentioned it 

Agreed.  Since we are attached to Albany, I sometimes think we are afterthoughts when it comes to these things since most of there CWA is much further inland.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

 

12z at this point, outside the 3k and RAP has us underperforming by quite a bit WOR...concerns are valid, especially with a deepening system, well south of the area. Typically you would see maxes in Northern Jersey, even by the NY/CT border and then again EOR, towards RI, I suspect Long Island ends up overperforming. Here I wouldn't be surprised to see 8-12, which is a great storm for the past few years, plus the wind will be fun, but definitely has underperformer vibes with regards to what the NWS is advertising

I’m going to respectfully disagree at this point. But we’ll see what happens over the next 24-36 hours. 

[Mj-pvd]

Already lost power this morning non weather related.  Conveniently for the length of the gold medal gam

[Fozz]

59 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean, it’s hard to ignore the globals, but the meso’s holding firm is obviously in our favor.  
You’re in a pretty good spot. I’ve seen this dance before out this way so I keep my expectations in check. 

Well, I may have spoken too soon.

I'm going to trust the experts who just put me in a Blizzard Warning, and hope they are right.

[weathergoat]

I truly hope all the limb trimming the power companies have been doing the last 18 months or so minimizes the chance for widespread outages. Scattered are inevitable.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Those echoes moving westward over NJ?  What's up with that?

been very well forecast itll move north later this afternoon and evening

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m going to respectfully disagree at this point. But we’ll see what happens over the next 24-36 hours. 

Don't get me wrong, I hope I'm wrong...There is definitely going to be a fun band like the RGEM is showing where someone gets 15-20 inches, hopefully it parks over us, I just feel like we see it set up towards Danbury/New Milford area in coastals and we end up with a NAM/GFS/RGEM scenario

[Go Kart Mozart]

HRRR nice tic at hour 9.

[Spanks45]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

been very well forecast itll move north later this afternoon and evening

My kid has baseball at Zone nation from 130-3....debating whether or not to make that trip down, thoughts?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Very rare to see a blizzard warming in this area.  We usually don’t get the winds.  
I think the last one here was March 2018??

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup…elevation won’t mean much with this imo. Marginal events…for sure. Not a blizzard Nor’easter. 

I think it’s more like a western face shadow with intense easterly inflow, rather than referring to elevation specifically 

[Prismshine Productions]

You guys don’t have sweet tea or Bojangles up there. It’s a non starter lol. Enjoy my friend! That low is starting to crank off of Hatteras - north west flow already ensuing a few miles to my west. 

Bro I spent the first 29 years of my life down there... At least up here we got actual season, see snow, and way less humidity. Well worth the trade off

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

My kid has baseball at Zone nation from 130-3....debating whether or not to make that trip down, thoughts?

It will def be snowing but I don't expect more than an additional coating to an inch by 3pm though 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

17 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

 

12z at this point, outside the 3k and RAP has us underperforming by quite a bit WOR...concerns are valid, especially with a deepening system, well south of the area. Typically you would see maxes in Northern Jersey, even by the NY/CT border and then again EOR, towards RI, I suspect Long Island ends up overperforming. Here I wouldn't be surprised to see 8-12, which is a great storm for the past few years, plus the wind will be fun, but definitely has underperformer vibes with regards to what the NWS is advertising

The issue will be for WOR a move of 50 miles makes a sensible difference.
You are a lot further south than me so should almost be guaranteed double digits there. Again, though, I won’t discount deformation band potential for either of us.

[bristolri_wx]

I believe this is the only way you can easily get some sort of output from Google’s WeatherNext 2 model, but this definitely looks fun…

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Very rare to see a blizzard warming in this area.  We usually don’t get the winds.  
I think the last one here was March 2018??

My first one since moving here 

[CCHurricane]

no change on 12Z AI-EURO, maybe 5% less QPF out on western fringe. 

last 3 runs

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Anyway, I’m done with modeling for this one. Lots of radar watching tonight.
Fingers crossed for 10”+ here not 3”-4” of Arctic sand…

[Connecticut Appleman]

Litchfield Country got its Blizzard Warning.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

no change on 12Z AI-EURO, maybe 5% less QPF out on western fringe. 

last 3 runs

Gotta be careful with total QPF comparisons now because some has already occurred further west

[ineedsnow]

BOX point and click gone wild here!! 

 

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Blustery, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Monday

Snow, mainly before 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 10am. High near 25. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Monday Night

A chance of snow before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.