Go Kart Mozart Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It made a miraculous recovery. Same strength next panel. Thank God! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 chef's kiss 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3k koochie is 25 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This would be an interesting 3 hours… seeing widespread 3-4"/hour rates with that banding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3k NAM sends like an April ‘97 arc of convection into that. That’s what obliterates SE MA 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I vote for this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, CCHurricane said: seeing widespread 3-4"/hour rates with that banding... It’s got like 0.50” QPF per hour for a couple panels, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Yeah...this is going to be a good one down here! My son spent his first 5 years in NC and now is going to get 2 20"+ storms in one winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree with all of this as the transition started happening when I was still forecasting full time. The older SREF suite definitely seemed to handle east coast cyclogenesis better so they had a decent amount of utility in those types of storms. I remember they were hammering some of that banding in the Jan 2011 storm too and eventually most of the other guidance converged to them. I’ll also say they used to perform exceptionally in the SWFEs too. I used them constantly in the 2007-08 and 2008-09 winters with excellent results. Obviously the newer SREFs are superior to the older ones in many other areas, but it came at the expense of one of the more important types of event we forecast for in this part of the county. That's interesting. Would you oppose retiring the SREF? Looking at the evaluation webpage, the GEFS currently outperforms the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Long time lurker, occasional poster. These numbers and dynamics look special. Bullseye for a 30 burger looks somewhere between that SE MA circle of rte 95 on the west to route 3 on the east and 44 along the south. Towns like Foxboro, Hanover, Carver and Brockton. I get the sense I may be just north and “only” get 15-20.” Talk about first world probs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This would be an interesting 3 hours… 5-6 inches an hour type stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 34 minutes ago, Masswx said: Lets see 3k If slays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, MegaMike said: That's interesting. Would you oppose retiring the SREF? Looking at the evaluation webpage, the GEFS currently outperforms the SREF. I would not oppose retiring them at this point. At least in New England, they don’t have a lot of utility to a forecaster. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I would not oppose retiring them at this point. At least in New England, they don’t have a lot of utility to a forecaster. This is nutz Atlantic County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: If slays 3k gives me 2.4 in of qpf hope my wish comes true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 3k NAM sends like an April ‘97 arc of convection into that. That’s what obliterates SE MA Bullseye matches the BOX 1 in 10 prob graphic I posted a few hours ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said: Long time lurker, occasional poster. These numbers and dynamics look special. Bullseye for a 30 burger looks somewhere between that SE MA circle of rte 95 on the west to route 3 on the east and 44 along the south. Towns like Foxboro, Hanover, Carver and Brockton. I get the sense I may be just north and “only” get 15-20.” Talk about first world probs. Does that mean the same for me? Don’t know where you are in hingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Masswx said: Does that mean the same for me? Don’t know where you are in hingham. where is your final call map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: where is your final call map? Don’t know if I should make it tonight, or tomorrow morning. What’s your thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 26 minutes ago, Greg said: Definitely a further northward tug. I can tell right away. Nice, I figured we may see that at 00z....I'm sure tomorrow it will tick se and we lose our minds again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Hard to believe I walked in shorts and T-shirt and temperatures on the 80s. About to board a flight from ATL-BOS. Didn’t bring my shorts… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: 5-6 inches an hour type stuff 7AM-8AM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Masswx said: Don’t know if I should make it tonight, or tomorrow morning. What’s your thoughts? You won’t be able to rest until you make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, MuddyWx said: Good starting point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 3k NAM sends like an April ‘97 arc of convection into that. That’s what obliterates SE MA Want know my sick, sick hope? It doesn't involve a jackpot, either... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 need sleep need sleep.. ugh screw it one more run 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Both the NAM and 3K give me over .7. A little fix to tide me over until the Friday system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Some freak soundings on that 0z 3k NAM... this is in southeast MA (though not the biggest DGZ): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 50 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I feel like some of those models are specifically geared towards ensemble forecasts. You never hear about the NMM or ARW being used on their own as operational runs in forecast discussion. Ensembles are usually more truncated (courser, less dz layers, greater time step), but a model (NAM, GFS, etc...) is just a name given to a set of model configurations. The core (dictates how the atmosphere acts) is one aspect of multiple modeling options/schemes. Here's a table of some NCEP modeling configurations: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/home/table.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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