“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there has been a pattern have off-hour runs being more amped...I don't think this is that, but can't rule it out yet. 

the AIFS-EPS being more amped gives me a bit more confidence that it’s legit. but yes, need to see what happens at 00z

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s a good approach… At this moment, I’m not really excited or disappointed. I’m really the same way I was this morning. Because it helps when you identify what’s going on I mean that protects you from that other shit I’m not sure what else to tellto tell people, but whatever.

Funny, I'm better at doing that on a seasonal level, but struggle more with emotional regulation through the ebbs and flows of discrete threats in the medium range.

[Kitz Craver]

Love to see it, but can’t go all in until this holds and or continues to improve across multiple model suites for multiple cycles. By 12z tomorrow I’d say it could be real, I think someone posted that timeframe earlier and I agree. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Typhoon Freud loves this type of thing and will break it down psychologically 

[CCHurricane]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty amazing how some folks are so snakebitten. If this was a few years ago and this happened there would not be a soul who wasn’t amped up and on board. With both major model suites on board and lock step . Now there’s a ton of consternation and not buying and wringing of hands . It’s a study Typhoon Freutip would love 

For better or worse, the majority of users only want the big storm and max accumulations for their back yard (fellow board members be damned).

Unfortunately few have the ability to set aside biases and ego, and look beyond that primary objective and simply enjoy the track and the ups and downs that come with the model mayhem.

Saw it with the last storm, despite folks getting in the max +75% of outcomes, there was still disappointment pre/post storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

For better or worse, the majority of users want the big storm and max accumulations for their back yard (fellow board members be damned).

Unfortunately few have the ability to set aside biases and ego, and look beyond that primary objective and simply enjoy the track and the ups and downs that come with the model mayhem.

Saw it with the last storm, despite folks getting in the max +75% of outcomes, there was still disappointment pre/post storm.

Many folks yearn for jacks.. Even Jackmeoffers 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there has been a pattern have off-hour runs being more amped...I don't think this is that, but can't rule it out yet. 

Ya I’m not getting excited til 12:15am if we hold the look and even make it better.  If we tick back east then we are at the same spot as 12z today. 

[Typhoon Tip]

50-50 chance that 0Z is a full Monty

[CoastalWx]

This hobby never was so stressful. 

[CCHurricane]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This hobby never was so stressful. 

Think we’d all be well served if the model providers went back to 00z/12z.

Too many model runs, hard to keep track of how each subset is performing from storm to storm, and almost no down time. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This hobby never was so stressful. 

All the years of getting porked have rewired our brains. Well, some. 

[ScituateWX]

Just now, CCHurricane said:

Think we’d all be well served if the model providers went back to 00z/12z.

Too many model runs, hard to keep track of how each subset is performing from storm to storm, and almost no down time. 

I agree on to many model runs.  Not that I have a say in it but between AI models and 18Z “off hour runs” it must be a pain to use “guidance” as a guide in making a forecast.

[vortex95]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This hobby never was so stressful. 

More like "PHUN" and Games!  We may be wtiness ECMWF bust history here! LOL.

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This hobby never was so stressful. 

What are your thoughts?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What are your thoughts?

The old Narragansett Botle cap puzzles, Classics 

[Diggiebot]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This hobby never was so stressful. 

But we all keep coming back for more 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Think we’d all be well served if the model providers went back to 00z/12z.

Too many model runs, hard to keep track of how each subset is performing from storm to storm, and almost no down time. 

Eh, I think I'd prefer they go to 06z/18z.

[dryslot]

To many runs and to many models to compare.

[ORH_wxman]

The 21z ARW wipes SE MA and the Cape off the map. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 21z ARW wipes SE MA and the Cape off the map. 
 

I hope this doesn't end up a cape event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the GFS.

[NeonPeon]

24 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

I agree on to many model runs.  Not that I have a say in it but between AI models and 18Z “off hour runs” it must be a pain to use “guidance” as a guide in making a forecast.

Surely the fact that we are all a bunch of hysterical loons isn't part of any good policy analysis.

More information is more information. We might not be able to resist the allure of overreaction, but surely a professional just waits and looks at a few runs, and the information is more current, and the effect is the same.

I mean, I've seen people on here saying why hasn't box done x y or z, when their information doesn't match, and they are clearly just waiting for more info to confirm, rather than oversteering.

[NorEastermass128]

Pulling for you all. I’ll be stuck in Ohio all week, so I’ll miss this one. I think we know one way or the other by 12z tomorrow. 

[The 4 Seasons]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh, I think I'd prefer they go to 06z/18z.

Either way I like the idea of only 2X/day I wonder how others feel about that. Maybe just the have the high res stuff run 4X/day. I kinda miss when the Euro only ran twice per day. The only main global that was running four times was the GFS. Now it's everything even the Canadian and UK run 4 times now in short range

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 21z ARW wipes SE MA and the Cape off the map. 
 

I’m actually wondering if the 00 runs just all come in like that… Maybe not that ferocious but you know full commitment

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Either way I like the idea of only 2X/day I wonder how others feel about that. Maybe just the have the high res stuff run 4X/day. I kinda miss when the Euro only ran twice per day. The only main global that was running four times was the GFS. Now it's everything even the Canadian and UK run 4 times now in short range

I remember the 1 euro run for a day and we didn’t have QPF

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What are your thoughts?

Dazed and confused?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m actually wondering if the 00 runs just all come in like that… Maybe not that ferocious but you know full commitment

That isn't what I would consider full commitment....

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope this doesn't end up a cape event.

With that 500 mill bar in that surface depiction the way that series has it? 

I know you just meant in general, but that thing would have huge wind and snow problems all the way in

But I don’t use that model anyway so just commenting to what that looks like. It actually kind of reminds me of the old DGEX

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

With that 500 mill bar in that surface depiction the way that series has it? 

I know you just meant in general, but that thing would have huge wind and snow problems all the way in

But I don’t use that model anyway so just commenting to what that looks like. It actually kind of reminds me of the old DGEX

Yea, I said that about even the EURO....QPF won't sniff the mid level band.