Wxbear25 Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM Man, what I wouldn’t give to just get those two S/W’s to interact just a few hours earlier… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted Thursday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:51 PM 11 minutes ago, njwx7 said: Long time lurker, first time poster. I think the writing is on the wall with this one, unfortunately. GFS vs ECMWF/EPS/Euro-AI/UKM does not bode well 9 times out of 10. Barring a major shift on the 12z euro, i think the only thing that keeps this threat alive is if we see increased support for the GFS solution on the EPS. If the EPS holds serve or even shifts east then I think a GFS solution is off the table. Regardless, this will be a close call and could easily still turn into an advisory-level event for some. Welcome to the insanity,,,,,,,, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:54 PM 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The norlun can be big. it's down in the DELMARVA on the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:56 PM 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: it's down in the DELMARVA on the Euro Its further north on the 12z run. JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Thursday at 05:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:58 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Its further north on the 12z run. JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston If all of JB's predictions came true everyone in the northeast would double or triple their yearly snow totals. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Thursday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:01 PM This one is not as dead at this range as the system 3 or so weeks back was. Its pretty dead but I'd still give it a 25% chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:01 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its further north on the 12z run. JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston He’s a joke. It still works for him to get the clicks and subscriptions? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Thursday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:05 PM 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its further north on the 12z run. JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston Here's his tweet on the storm: I don't disagree with his sentiments concerning the GFS. It remains perplexing that when it came to the last major upgrade of the GFS, NCEP did not adopt the top-flight 4dVAR initialization scheme that is used by the ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET. Weaker initialization puts the model at a disadvantage from the start. Occasionally, the model scores, but far more often than not, other models provide better solutions. Finally, a significant or major hit has been a low probability, high-impact scenario. Unfortunately, as the lead time has diminished the overall probability of such an outcome has not increased. If anything, it has decreased. There's still uncertainty, but time is running out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:07 PM 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This one is not as dead at this range as the system 3 or so weeks back was. Its pretty dead but I'd still give it a 25% chance. Its all about timing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Its all about timing They’ve all been for the past 3+ years and the fails keep piling up way faster than the blown 10-20” calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Thursday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:11 PM 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its further north on the 12z run. JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston A broken clock can be right. Hopefully this time it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Thursday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:12 PM The Euro does give us some snow Sunday but it's during the day with temps slightly above freezing. It would be a colder surfaces deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: A broken clock can be right. Hopefully this time it is No one is getting 10-20 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Thursday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:16 PM 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its further north on the 12z run. JB likes 10-20 inches from DC to boston ^I’m sure @donsutherland1 isn’t surprised one bit by that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted Thursday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:17 PM 32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The norlun can be big. No one seems interested in it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:17 PM 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: The Euro does give us some snow Sunday but it's during the day with temps slightly above freezing. It would be a colder surfaces deal. yippee! Would rather it be sunny and dry than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:19 PM 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: No one seems interested in it… This might turn into a 1-3/2-4 inch deal. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Thursday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:19 PM JMA (for what it's worth) 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Thursday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:22 PM 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yippee! Would rather it be sunny and dry than that. If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Thursday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:23 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This might turn into a 1-3/2-4 inch deal. White rain unless majority of it falls at night like this past Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Thursday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:24 PM 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: ^I’m sure @donsutherland1 isn’t surprised one bit by that lol jb is wrong, unless this is snark....this is unlikely anything to worry about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Thursday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:25 PM 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This might turn into a 1-3/2-4 inch deal. It's sun angle season. Nothing's sticking until nighttime unless it's on existing snow piles that are still around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseyshorewxguy Posted Thursday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:28 PM Euro hasn't been good at allare you repeating the same sentence over and over again in hopes that it will become reality?. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Thursday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:33 PM 44 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: Man, what I wouldn’t give to just get those two S/W’s to interact just a few hours earlier… You’d probably get something similar to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Thursday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:35 PM 1 minute ago, Nibor said: You’d probably get something similar to the gfs. Exactly why I want it so bad lol We need the Canadian curling team to boop them closer together 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Thursday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:36 PM 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall How about you look at thermal profiles. Report back your findings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Thursday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:37 PM I'm thinking we can probably put this thread to rest by the 0Z runs tonight. Maybe change the name then to follow the Norlun. Forget the models, I'm still shocked that whethergeek2025 may have gotten this one totally wrong. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Thursday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:41 PM Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I'm thinking we can probably put this thread to rest by the 0Z runs tonight. Maybe change the name then to follow the Norlun. Forget the models, I'm still shocked that whethergeek2025 may have gotten this one totally wrong. Imagine what he’ll become the day he gets a big one right? *Shudders* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:42 PM 19 minutes ago, nycsnow said: White rain unless majority of it falls at night like this past Sunday Its February not march 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:43 PM 15 minutes ago, jerseyshorewxguy said: are you repeating the same sentence over and over again in hopes that it will become reality? . Yes 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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