nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Hrrrrr slightly further nw 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Long island Ice tea Geez-Sazerac’s are bad enough lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Dropped to 35.4F here with a switch to flakes a little before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 still raining here after some light snow earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2/3 hours before the 'real' snow begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I should try to figure out a special New Orleans cocktail for a Long Islander who would rather be home right now in a blizzard but every other day of the year would rather be in New Orleans. The Grenade to support Bombogenisis!Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snow has picked up light snow currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillycane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Light snow in the UES.. Cold surfaces have a light dusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 Models shifting east the day of a big storm is an American pastime 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Very light over in the beaches of Monmouth co 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 While we wait for the Board psychiatrist to arrive to address the gloom, the 12z UKMET held serve. Moreover, the 16z RAP at 21 hours showed: The 12 hour intervals for the 12z HREF were: 2/22 12z-2/23 0z: 2/23 0z-12z: 2/23 12z-2/24 0z: 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 EURO AI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Hrr great and still snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Models shifting east the day of a big storm is an American pastime If everybody just focused on what the short range models are showing (while snow is literally flying from the sky mind you), they'd be way less anxious, than worrying about the GFS. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just flipped here in the last 5 minutes from a very light non accumulating snow to moderate snow in Central Rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 23 minutes ago, psv88 said: 88 in Miami Beach If you can't be here, that's the next best thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewoodweather125 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Ridgewood NJ. 36 degrees. Steady light to moderate snow. Not sticking to anything yet . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I'm still thinking 12-18" for NE Sussex county. Locally higher in spots.I agree with that for the typical NW NJ jackpot zone from Highland Lakes / West Milford to Hardyston, Sparta Mt, Jefferson to Hopatcong. But I think still a very solid chance of 24”. It’s that early stage nervousness as some guidance backs off / shifts around while we watch it develop in real time. Will be mid to late afternoon until the more organized banding begins to really develop and we can begin to truly know which way this is going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 EURO AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Euro looks to have held serve 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I see alot of heavy precipitation in S NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO AI We'll know tomorrow how this fared. But something to keep in mind: A new study led by scientists from the University of Chicago, in collaboration with New York University and the University of California Santa Cruz, is testing the limits of AI-powered weather prediction. In research published May 21 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they found that neural networks cannot forecast weather events beyond the scope of existing training data—which might leave out events like 200-year floods, unprecedented heat waves or massive hurricanes. https://news.uchicago.edu/story/ai-good-weather-forecasting-can-it-predict-freak-weather-events 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Hrr great and still snowingGets to 11.6 at the end it's run. At the same time on 12z run was at 10.2 and finished with 15.5. Good sign. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: While we wait for the Board psychiatrist to arrive to address the gloom, the 12z UKMET held serve. Moreover, the 16z RAP at 21 hours showed: The 12 hour intervals for the 12z HREF were: 2/22 12z-2/23 0z: 2/23 0z-12z: 2/23 12z-2/24 0z: There’s going to be a western deform band. Where it is has yet to be determined but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was where the rap shows it. A few other mesos have it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Models shifting east the day of a big storm is an American pastime NWS sees something different as even Dutchess County under Blizzard Warning with totals increased to 12-18”. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, jdt said: I agree with that for the typical NW NJ jackpot zone from Highland Lakes / West Milford to Hardyston, Sparta Mt, Jefferson to Hopatcong. But I think still a very solid chance of 24”. It’s that early stage nervousness as some guidance backs off / shifts around while we watch it develop in real time. Will be mid to late afternoon until the more organized banding begins to really develop and we can begin to truly know which way this is going. . What kind of banding? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: We'll know tomorrow how this fared. But something to keep in mind: A new study led by scientists from the University of Chicago, in collaboration with New York University and the University of California Santa Cruz, is testing the limits of AI-powered weather prediction. In research published May 21 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they found that neural networks cannot forecast weather events beyond the scope of existing training data—which might leave out events like 200-year floods, unprecedented heat waves or massive hurricanes. https://news.uchicago.edu/story/ai-good-weather-forecasting-can-it-predict-freak-weather-events Thanks Don! Here is the EURO. Held strength just slipped SE from previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 NYC has a full snow day tomorrow. No remote learning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don! Here is the EURO. Held strength just slipped SE from previous runs. Crazy to see Euro locked in for days with 8 to 12 for NYC and then you have upton going for 20 inches. Make it make sense 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Tool Band locationRadar → HRRR Snow rates: HRRR Band confidence: HREF Temps / p-typeObs → RAP → NAM 3k CAD statusObs + RAP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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