EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 What an impressive NMB to see. And this is the more conservative experimental version 5.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Good morning New York City. Blizzard is on its way but today will be a beautiful day to run your errands before the storm hits. Currently 34 degrees with the beautiful sunrise coming up. It's going to be a relatively warm day today with a high of 47 light and variable winds. Tonight the temperature drops to around 34 degrees as the clouds roll in by sunrise. Sunday: we have a blizzard warning here with expected snow during the day around 2-4 inches during the day. Sunday night blizzard conditions, dangerous wind up to 70 mph in highest gusts, possible thundersnow and heavy wet snow with a low of 26 degrees with 10-14 inches of snow. Monday: Blizzard conditions in the morning with heavy snow, tapering down to light snow showers by early afternoon and ending west to east by 3pm high of 34 very windy. 3-6 inches of additional snow. Total storm snow accumulations of 15 to 24 inches possible. Monday Night: Cold and windy night low of 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: How have you been doing? Everyone has been asking about you. Really glad you are back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 NBM is 28.1" of snow for here. Would be biggest storm since Boxing Day. Going with 18" for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Anyone have the 6z EURO liquid total map? It was 0.7 for NYC at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: A few important aspects to keep in mind: - There is no human intervention in that dataset. The underlying NWS NDFD forecast is applied to the WPC super ensemble data and does adjust the statistical spectrum a bit, but this is done automatically. - There may be time lagging affecting the low end members of the super ensemble, with various inputs possibly being earlier model cycles. - The above being said, given the extreme top end of the spectrum which we can see with the GFS (and many GEFS members) and NAM, those top end 90th percentile amounts are physically plausible, and again, automatically derived (with a ratio applied I believe). - There is certainly a good deal less spread now than earlier today, but you'll still have some ensemble members that have much lower QPF at this range (and some of these may be from earlier cycles, as noted above). For this reason, the 10th percentile low end amount undeniably seems ridiculous given the extreme top end amounts, but in this case, the 10th percentile is not completely unreasonable. As spread decreases, that will most certainly come up on subsequent runs. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk This is great info, thank you. I was going to just click the Thanks emoji as I did and leave it that since I had nothing meaningful to contribute, except to say that I noticed this morning that as of the latest update the High End was kept in the update, but the Low End was dropped entirely. I'm guessing that's out of concern that whatever it might have currently shown, people will see that and not t take this seriously, in an update where 'take this seriously' is rightly the whole point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bluewave said: How have you been doing? Everyone has been asking about you. Really glad you are back. All is well, @bluewave Thank you for asking. I hope all is well with you. I missed/look forward to reading your weather posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 QPF 6z euro and 6z EPS standard version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 . 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, North and West said: . Classic lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro moving every so slightly west was telegraphed on last nights ensemble. Tip was of the opinion, as of yesterday afternoon, that it’s not done trending west; to be determined. I’m not overly concerned about the qpf projections up here in northwest NJ; the 700 fronto that’s been depicted is phenomenal. Letting the weenie flag fully fly: I can’t wait to see the developed ccb as this thing churns toward the cape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njwx7 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 15 minutes ago, nycsnow said: SREF continues to get more bullish. Crazy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Personally I'm good with the NWS going with the "average" model camp (8-12" NW of 95, 12-16" near/along 95 and 16-20" for the coast) from a public safety/trust perspective, since going with the low end model average and having something near the high end verify would have people not quite ready for an historic storm. They can easily bump down from the average camp if things trend that way before the storm starts and easily bump up towards something historic (the 10% high case) if the low end models bump up significantly. I am a bit surprised their 10% low end case is so low - that implies they still think there's a worst credible case for the system to go back to the Euro 2 days ago. That would kind of suck. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 All is well, [mention=564]bluewave[/mention] Thank you for asking. I hope all is well with you. I missed/look forward to reading your weather posts No more Philly discord?!NAM usually follows the NMB member so expect the 12z NAM to be pretty tucked imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Personally I'm good with the NWS going with the "average" model camp (8-12" NW of 95, 12-16" near/along 95 and 16-20" for the coast) from a public safety/trust perspective, since going with the low end model average and having something near the high end verify would have people not quite ready for an historic storm. They can easily bump down from the average camp if things trend that way before the storm starts and easily bump up towards something historic (the 10% high case) if the low end models bump up significantly. I am a bit surprised their 10% low end case is so low - that implies they still think there's a worst credible case for the system to go back to the Euro 2 days ago. That would kind of suck. 2-29 inches. What a spread lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: No more Philly discord?! NAM usually follows the NMB member so expect the 12z NAM to be pretty tucked imo I stepped away from everything Tell tombo I said hello 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hinyho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 If you look closer at the map above, the snowfall total range is from 1" to 36" at Toms River NJ. Meaning all or nothing. lol. I guess they are covering themselves to say they predicted every possible outcome. I think temperatures will be from 0 to 100 degrees tomorrow. oh, and the GFS is correct and has been all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 My latest thoughts: MMU: 6-10 NYC: 10-14 Central/Eastern LI: 12-20 (locally 2ft) enjoy all! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Man hopefully things hold today, we are 24-30 hrs away from a biggy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 hours ago, nycwinter said: i am curious why the nws would issue a blizzard warning kinda early considering the euro run not usually like them to jump the gun so fast.. 2015 24 to 36 when the EURO and Nam were alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 19 minutes ago, njwx7 said: SREF continues to get more bullish. Crazy Yes please. Being in New Brunswick I can afford some NW ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 some of these TV mets are really dropping the ball I think.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: some of these TV mets are really dropping the ball I think.... wait till tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Sure glad I am few miles west of Staten Island - wouldn't want to be caught in that Blizzardbut seriously does anyone think conditions will be any different in the Eastern Counties of NJ ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 this lady is saying hours and hours of 1-2 inches per hour... and a chance of up to 12" SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, NEG NAO said: Sure glad I am few miles west of Staten Island - wouldn't want to be caught in that Blizzard I am probably 2 miles south of Staten Island as the crow flies.. Just about on the Monmouth county border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 39 minutes ago, EasternLI said: QPF 6z euro and 6z EPS standard version Euro is a solid 6 to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yes please. Being in New Brunswick I can afford some NW ticks. Same and we can afford it forum wide but we’ll see how it goes. Euro shows a moderate storm for our area but nothing like NAM/GFS that both have me at over 20” multiple runs. one will be right when all is said and done on Monday. TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: I am probably 2 miles south of Staten Island as the crow flies.. Just about on the Monmouth county border you to I am sure your will notice the 10 mph wind difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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