TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice bump west with cmc ensembles Every single model keeps bumping west. The EURO holds serve. Either every single weather model is seeing something that the EURO isn't, or every single weather model is wrong and the EURO is right. We're 36 hours away.... something is up with the EURO imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now The problem is, what if we get 18 - 24 inches of snow and the TV mets keep calling for 6-12 because one model refuses to budge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro isn’t like how it was back in the day, not saying its wrong but something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njwx7 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is true at all. It showed some good runs. Agree. It has pretty consistently been between the GFS and Euro. The current 00z track is still great. What I'm not sure about, and maybe someone has the answer here, is how well it performs with QPF. My understanding is that the AI models run at a lower resolution and have a tendency to smooth things out. Assuming that is true, I would seriously consider track and rely on mesos to work out the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njwx7 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: The problem is, what if we get 18 - 24 inches of snow and the TV mets keep calling for 6-12 because one model refuses to budge? I saw someone mention this earlier, and I totally agree. If the mets predict 6-12 and we get 18-24, the general public won't really remember it. 6-12 is generally "enough" to get most people to avoid travel and change plans. However, if they predict 18-24 and we get 4, the public won't forget it. They will be unhappy that they adjusted their plans for a "minor" event and will call this a bust. It's a real tough spot to be in as a forecaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, njwx7 said: I saw someone mention this earlier, and I totally agree. If the mets predict 6-12 and we get 18-24, the general public won't really remember it. 6-12 is generally "enough" to get most people to avoid travel and change plans. However, if they predict 18-24 and we get 4, the public won't forget it. They will be unhappy that they adjusted their plans for a "minor" event and will call this a bust. It's a real tough spot to be in as a forecaster I think that’s exactly right, and it really does put forecasters in a no-win spot. As we get inside about 48 hours, higher-resolution, short-range guidance starts to carry more weight. Models like the NAM, HRRR, and other mesoscale systems can better resolve banding, localized deformation zones, and boundary-layer thermal structure. That’s where snowfall totals can swing dramatically over small distances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njwx7 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, njwx7 said: I don't envy the position of the NWS. Very interested to see what they do. Euro is clearly an eastern outlier but I don't seem them throwing out the euro suite in the same way that they would if it was the GFS depicting this solution. Upton's response (as of 2:15 AM) is to advertise the following for NYC: Low End: 1" Forecasted: 9" High End: 21" What's a 20" spread amongst friends? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, njwx7 said: Upton's response (as of 2:15 AM) is to advertise the following for NYC: Low End: 1" Forecasted: 9" High End: 21" What's a 20" spread amongst friends? That's so odd that they've knocked 2 inches off of the forecast when the models (except the EURO) have gotten better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Holy shit blizzard warning!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Snowlover11 said: Holy shit blizzard warning!!! For who neighbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Noteaster101 said: For who neighbor? NYC LI westchester coastal CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, dmillz25 said: NYC LI westchester coastal CT Oh wow, didn’t make it to Rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 13 and 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York.* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds and blizzard conditions are expected to Sunday night into Monday. However, snow will move in during the morning and afternoon hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Holy shit blizzard warning!!! HOLY SHIT!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 i guess they are discounting the euro somewhat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Bombs away.!!. Blizzard warning.!!..the ticker on my phone woke me up with this news. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 For those north and west, URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069-070-211900- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 11 and 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds are expected Sunday night into Monday. However, snow will move in during the morning and afternoon hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: i guess they are discounting the euro somewhat. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 13 and 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York.* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds and blizzard conditions are expected to Sunday night into Monday. However, snow will move in during the morning and afternoon hours. I just see a winter storm warning for Rockland County that was just posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 CTZ009>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-211900- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 13 and 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds and blizzard conditions are expected to Sunday night into Monday. However, snow will move in during the morning and afternoon hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay in your vehicle. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Noteaster101 said: I just see a winter storm warning for Rockland County that was just posted Yeah sorry we are under a Warning in rockland, im currently at work in yonkers where i got the blizzard warning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 first blizzard warning for nyc in 4 years.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Yeah sorry we are under a Warning in rockland, im currently at work in yonkers where i got the blizzard warning lol Aren’t we here in Rockland County considered southeastern New York? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Wow Blizzard warning for NYC 13 to 18 inches with wind gusts up to 55mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Noteaster101 said: Aren’t we here in Rockland County considered southeastern New York? Lol. Technically lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Snowlover11 said: Technically lol I know right, I don’t get it, I hope they change it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I cannot imagine what NYC is going to wake up to this morning. A blizzard warning will get people out of bed VERY QUICKLY. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: first blizzard warning for nyc in 4 years.. Yep ,made my early morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Technically lol We are lucky, we are the most southern and eastern part of Rockland County, in this type of storm every mile counts south and east. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Even Snowman won't be able to weenie fast enough with everyones excitement on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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