SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC SREF: 1.5 / 14.1 NAM: 2.3 / 22.3 Updated NAM magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, jdj5211 said: I think the craziest part about this is that this could actually get even better because there’s room to come further NW with the track. This is where the NAM gets into its wheelhouse so it has to be taken seriously. It will go about 100miles more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, SACRUS said: 2/21 00z NAm Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 - 24 SNOW 10:1 And ratios will definitely help NW of where the max QPF ends up, and banding will probably get into all of our subforum so we all have an equal chance at this point IMO at jackpot type amounts (20"+ maybe 25"). Wow wow wow. It sucked to miss 2/1 but this makes up for it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, jdj5211 said: I think the craziest part about this is that this could actually get even better because there’s room to come further NW with the track. This is where the NAM gets into its wheelhouse so it has to be taken seriously. The southern stream and primary northern stream have already consolidated into a closed, negatively tilted mid-level low offshore. The Alberta clipper energy upstream is elongated and lagging, feeding into the broader trough rather than diving into the base at peak intensification as a third discrete impulse. In other words, the phase has already happened and the system is maturing, not undergoing a fresh three-way interaction. If that upstream energy were carving sharply southeast and visibly tightening the core at this frame, we’d be having a different conversation. But here, the structure is consolidated and occluding. This is a powerful double phase with backside reinforcement, not a clean triple crash. If we could get that Alberta clipper to come in... we might get Moses to start building an ark with skies! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 this very well could rival 1996 in locations!!! 2010 and 2016 were peashooters compared to 96.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Dont know if this verifies but wonder when was the last time Philly, NYC, and Boston all got 20 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 NAM snows from 12z Sunday to 21Z Monday lol, that's 34 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Heh, the trends towards better phasing have yet to cease... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 00z FV3 60H Total QPG 60H Snow 1:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Feel quite good being in central NJ. The trend from the Nam has been northward ticks. This could put the jackpot zone closer to this area and likely closer to NYC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Don't wanna over analyze the long range nam but I like the trend of this thing gaining latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Uniblab said: Hopefully this is a bad analogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Dont know if this verifies but wonder when was the last time Philly, NYC, and Boston all got 20 plus 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And ratios will definitely help NW of where the max QPF ends up, and banding will probably get into all of our subforum so we all have an equal chance at this point IMO at jackpot type amounts (20"+ maybe 25"). Wow wow wow. It sucked to miss 2/1 but this makes up for it! Can you imagine if we hadn't missed 2/1 and then this was coming. Would have been a trifecta! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 NBM: 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 If the weather nerds map was accurate, everyone gets 30, jersey gets 30, nyc gets 30 parts of CT gets 30, long island gets 30, EVERYONE GETS 30 INCHES 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 00z NAm Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 - 24 SNOW 10:1 Thanks for waiting until runs finish to post totals. Otherwise people start getting confused. Also could you imagine 40” in deleware lol. Imagine that cleanup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The southern stream and primary northern stream have already consolidated into a closed, negatively tilted mid-level low offshore. The Alberta clipper energy upstream is elongated and lagging, feeding into the broader trough rather than diving into the base at peak intensification as a third discrete impulse. In other words, the phase has already happened and the system is maturing, not undergoing a fresh three-way interaction. If that upstream energy were carving sharply southeast and visibly tightening the core at this frame, we’d be having a different conversation. But here, the structure is consolidated and occluding. This is a powerful double phase with backside reinforcement, not a clean triple crash. If we could get that Alberta clipper to come in... we might get Moses to start building an ark with skies!Whatever this means….does it mean that it can come further NW? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I'll definitely take this but I think the last run had 2 feet into NYC or maybe I'm mixing it up with the gfs This is how I know we've reached the saturation point. When people start looking at 22.8 inches over New York City and say didn't the last run have more? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Side question - know the NAM is..well, the NAM, but do we know why it's getting removed? And when it's getting removed? I look to it well for SWFE events and under 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 ICON is out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 wait a sec... Don just posted the nbm....is that eerily similar or just me... lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Fv3 Still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Blizzardo said: wait a sec... Don just posted the nbm....is that eerily similar or just me... lol No not really. Bigger totals north east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This is how I know we've reached the saturation point. When people start looking at 22.8 inches over New York City and say didn't the last run have more?At 10-1 it went from 23.1 to 22.8 in nyc and the heaviest shifted closer to the city. Kuchera have some friendly ratios at 18z and that map was prob what he saw. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DegazRU Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 00z NAm Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 - 24 SNOW 10:1 This is kablooey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: NBM: I guess I can get that to suffice. Not too shabby. Shoot your cuffs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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