jdj5211 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 NAM is running! Here we go. Buckle up!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 these comments don't come often from forky! that's when you know it's exciting...This may be stupid, but what's a bent warm front and what levels can you see it?Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Looked at the 00z HRRR for the hell of it. Was already on board with an amped solution too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 2 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Yep that's the shift the models have made last 24 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Ridge pumping nicely out west on the nam and in the perfect location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I don’t expect 00z to be as good as 18z since that was a near perfect depiction, I’m just looking for it to have a similar idea. This far out with the NAM it’s all we can ask for. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Looked at the 00z HRRR for the hell of it. Was already on board with an amped solution too lol Yes it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: depends on how the low gets there For my area of NW NJ I like an eventual track to near Block Island to across the Cape Cod Canal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 54 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: A few things and about temps with this storm 1) An occluding low is becoming vertically stacked, so you need to worry less about the surface low having a good track, but getting skunked by an 850mb low 150 miles west of you flooding the region with warm air 2) The precipitation will be very, very heavy so it will naturally cool the column 3) The deeper the low, the more the pressure gradient force overwhelms the coriolis force resulting in a more direct high->Low wind direction. In other words, winds will be more northerly than one would expect from a low in that position 4) The low eventually will lose northward momentum and pinwheel eastward, so whatever push of warm air there may be (which there wont really) will be gone The big thing I'd be worried about if this thing keeps coming north is a big-ol wedge of dry air just being hurled northward into somewhere over eastern LI/southern New England oh yeah Miller As dry slots suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam a bit more amped plus less confluence out ahead... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 49 minutes ago, Rjay said: No I don't. Well maybe Nassau. Again we are kinda far out for this though. Nnj down to the Jersey shore, nyc and lower HV would be my guess right now but that could easily change over the next 24-36 hours. I think as long as the 500/700/850 lows are all closed off and go SE of us we’re fine in terms of mixing being an issue. If we start seeing those trend to tracking over us we have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 You want the mid-level lows to travel through this slot like the gfs shows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Just now, jm1220 said: I think as long as the 500/700/850 lows are all closed off and go SE of us we’re fine in terms of mixing being an issue. If we start seeing those trend to tracking over us we have a problem. Mixing wont be an issue imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: I don’t expect 00z to be as good as 18z since that was a near perfect depiction, I’m just looking for it to have a similar idea. This far out with the NAM it’s all we can ask for. Same here but then again everything today has surpassed my expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 16 minutes ago, T5403CG said: Got ya... but every model is tracking this SE of 40/70... that is not conducive to NYC and west having the best dynamics... it screams Long Island and Eastern New England... Just trying to understand where the thought process is that the track will be inside 40/70 (That's where Boxer Day storm tracked)? Need some education so I can see what I am missing here... Thanks... Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk Boxing Day jackpotted west of NYC since it tracked west of the benchmark and brushed Cape Cod. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Meteorology12262010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rjay said: Mixing wont be an issue imo Do you Think start as rain with a quick change over is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: oh yeah Miller As dry slots suck If the 700/850 low tracks over you sure. Again too soon to know where the best banding sets up but that’s what I’m really watching. That and how soon they close off. When you see the closed 700/500mb lows and deepening low not occluded yet you have a great feed of moisture into a healthy CCB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: Same here but then again everything today has surpassed my expectations. I think shades of NEMO and BDB haunt me. I was on the wrong side of both by 20-35 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, bluewave said: Boxing Day jackpotted west of NYC since it tracked right across Cape Cod. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Meteorology12262010 As long as it's a strong, dynamic system then I prefer a very tucked in track maybe 50-75 miles SE of ACY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 King NAM is running 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Do you Think start as rain with a quick change over is possible? I mean that's possible, sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I'm really confused why Lee Goldberg is saying this starts as rain Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Boxing Day jackpotted west of NYC since it tracked right across Cape Cod. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Meteorology12262010 Normally a great track for where I am living now but back then (I was not living here at the time) this area got the royal shaft with 5-8". Deformation bands were SO intense there was massive subsidence to the west of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: As long as it's a strong, dynamic system then I prefer a very tucked in track maybe 50-75 miles SE of ACY And people in Suffolk want it further east and people like @Juliancoltonwant it even closer to the coast (nw). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I mean that's possible, sure Nice we need the rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Nice we need the rain My grass looks like shit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, TriPol said: I'm really confused why Lee Goldberg is saying this starts as rain Sunday morning. Bc it might. Temps will probably be above freezing in a large chunk of the area when the precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 GfsLooking like a Monmouth Co special. Temps will tell the tale along with the flooding and winds. Time to tune the mega snow thrower…..Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: I'm really confused why Lee Goldberg is saying this starts as rain Sunday morning. It may start out as light rain especually south of NYC but it's going to be inconsequential to the outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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