nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 My only issue with the OP GFS is that the low further east usually becomes the main low like the Canadian and other guidance is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2/20 12z ULMET Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Hard to see, but here are the 12z GEFS at hr 60. Some big hits in there. GFS PRS ENSEMBLE (HOUR 60) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Huge shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: My only issue with the OP GFS is that the low further east usually becomes the main low like the Canadian and other guidance is showing. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Hopefully the Euro can finally jump on so we can start really talking bigger amounts (GFS is still probably excessive until other guidance jumps on. Other models are still further east/more strung out with the low). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 full cave 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 2/20 12z Summary Total QPF NYC SREF: 1.2 NAM: 0.9 RGEM: 0.7 ICON: 1.0 GFS: 1.6 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.7 GGEM: 0.6 GEFS: 1.5 UMET: 0.9-1.0 Updated 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 So all show a good hit!!!! Camp 1 low closer to the coast 12z GFS NAM GFS AI Camp 2 low further off the coast 12z UKMET CMC RGEM JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully the Euro can finally jump on so we can start really talking bigger amounts (GFS is still probably excessive until other guidance jumps on. Other models are still further east/more strung out with the low). The other models have been coming in more west and wrapped up every run since yesterday's 18z suite. The gfs could be too close to the coast so I guess only time will tell. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpsycho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Hard to see, but here are the 12z GEFS at hr 60. Some big hits in there. GFS PRS ENSEMBLE (HOUR 60) I'll have number 11 with fries please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Snowpsycho said: What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996? Not 1996. Might have been 2006. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: The other models have been coming in more west and wrapped up every run since yesterday's 18z suite. The gfs could be too close to the coast so I guess only time will tell. GFS ticked east so maybe a meet in the middle scenario is unfolding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: The other models have been coming in more west and wrapped up every run since yesterday's 18z suite. The gfs could be too close to the coast so I guess only time will tell. Oh I agree, totally what we want to be seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, Snowpsycho said: What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996? 2006 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Now that the expectations have done a 180 in 24 hours(no snow to a near blizzard)what can go wrong? What are the odds we go back to out to sea? odds of a crippling blizzard? 2 feet plus? odds of a 8-12” storm? odds of a 2-4” storm? Im on LI and wouldn’t mind any of the above solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 The 12z UKMET which has a known SE bias is well NW of the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully the Euro can finally jump on so we can start really talking bigger amounts (GFS is still probably excessive until other guidance jumps on. Other models are still further east/more strung out with the low). Yea I’d guess the GFS is a bit overdone but that being said, seems like the immediate metro is in line for at least a SECS and that’s pretty awesome to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Now that the expectations have done a 180 in 24 hours(no snow to a near blizzard)what can go wrong? What are the odds we go back to out to sea? odds of a crippling blizzard? 2 feet plus? odds of a 8-12” storm? odds of a 2-4” storm? Im on LI and wouldn’t mind any of the above solutions 20 % Crippling Blizzard 70 % 8 -12 30 % 2 -4 inch This is for me in Union/Northern Middlesex County NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Yea I’d guess the GFS is a bit overdone but that being said, seems like the immediate metro is in line for at least a SECS and that’s pretty awesome to me. Yep, looking more likely we finally break the curse with these coastal storms to some extent anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 11 minutes ago, Snowpsycho said: What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996? March 1888 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 Last 16 runs of the gfs. A little waffling in the beginning but then consistency. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 26 minutes ago, Nibor said: There’s a lot of really amped members with a west lean; GFS going for glory with this storm. If the 06z op showed anything it was that it opened the low out in the Atlantic; it had the 2 dueling lows for a few runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Day 2 2/22 12z - 2/23 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Forky thinks a major snowstorm is on the way. We listen when he is bold. 7 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, MJO812 said: Forky thinks a major snowstorm is on the way. We listen when he is bold. where is he? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Forky thinks a major snowstorm is on the way. We listen when he is bold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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