CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 For NYC, specifically Central Park 10 % Above 15 inches 30 % 10 -15 inches 30 % 6 -10 inches 20 % 3 -6 inch 10 % 1 -3 inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Thanks. Ignore the point and click when they're at odds with the issued snowfall maps. They'll update soon. Also if you go in to the hourly weather graphic it shows 4.3" of snow for Perth Amboy. My original point got a bit lost. I was only showing what AW and the NWS were telling the public in their (measured/conservative) weather discussions in text/writing. The public does not know what we do about maps, etc. You are right though; they seem to have a standard time forward where they will show inches in writing. Looks like about 60 hours. For example, still no inches shown in writing for Sunday night for my area. Ok we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 25 minutes ago, Snowpsycho said: What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996? February 2006 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 ABC 7 going with 1-3" for the city , 3-6" eastern Long Island with their noon update. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, David-LI said: ABC 7 going with 1-3" for the city , 3-6" eastern Long Island with their noon update. I told them they are way too low 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, David-LI said: ABC 7 going with 1-3" for the city , 3-6" eastern Long Island with their noon update. The news outlets are always late to catch on. I haven't watched them for years because of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, MJO812 said: I told them they are way too low TV is always going to be conservative this far out-by tomorrow different story 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 What did we all learn this week? If the GFS is consistent run after run with minor waffling, you may want to listen. I doubted it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, kat5hurricane said: The news outlets are always late to catch on. I haven't watched them for years because of this. I can't remember the last time I watched a TV local newscast. The average age of a viewer must be like 60 these days... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 13 minutes ago, David-LI said: ABC 7 going with 1-3" for the city , 3-6" eastern Long Island with their noon update. Still measured/conservative amounts. I don't blame them, really. They are broadcasting to a huge public audience, not to a forum. They almost always leave room to increase amounts as they look more certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I told them they are way too low I'm sure Lee Goldberg will have higher amounts when he comes on later this afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, winterwx21 said: I'm sure Lee Goldberg will have higher amounts when he comes on later this afternoon. Hes really good. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Winter storm watches going up for the mid atlantic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 A lot of you guys are going to owe the GFS a big apology after this storm wrecks us lolSent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 So possibilities...a case could be made for all 3 3-6 8-14 12-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 What did we all learn this week? If the GFS is consistent run after run with minor waffling, you may want to listen. I doubted it I feel like that goes for really any of the major models. When one model is absolutely locked on to a solution with consistency you have to give it greater consideration. Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: My only issue with the OP GFS is that the low further east usually becomes the main low like the Canadian and other guidance is showing. The issue is how the models are handling that initial piece of energy to hit the coastline, which is the energy that spawns that “eastern low” The models have continuously trended towards this being more meridionally oriented, and thus more closely involved with the main s/w energy, with the GFS leading the way to this point in that regard There won’t be an “eastern low” or a “western low”, at least for any extended time there’s going to be one low, and the question is how well the big chunk of energy can rein in that front running stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said: A lot of you guys are going to owe the GFS a big apology after this storm wrecks us lol Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk I prayed every night for the gfs to be right here. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Ai gfs wow That's an HECS like the GFS. Wow! Thanks for posting the AIGFS/Weathernext models which TT/Pivotal don't have. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Brian5671 said: I can't remember the last time I watched a TV local newscast. The average age of a viewer must be like 60 these days... I stopped watching them when I started following online forums going back to the AccuWeather/Eastern forums days in the early 2000s a few years before PDII. I always found the weather forums to be more accurate and informative than TV meterologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: So possibilities...a case could be made for all 3 3-6 8-14 12-24 For NYC, specifically Central Park 10 % Above 15 inches 30 % 10 -15 inches 30 % 6 -10 inches 20 % 3 -6 inch 10 % 1 -3 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: I stopped watching them when I started following online forums going back to the AccuWeather/Eastern forums days in the early 2000s a few years before PDII. I always found the weather forums to be more accurate and informative than TV meterologists. March 2001 was the watershed/gamechanger for lot of TV mets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I can't remember the last time I watched a TV local newscast. The average age of a viewer must be like 60 these days... i'm 63 and haven't watched in decades. 60 is young enough to have seen the rise of phones and social media..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[email protected] Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: For NYC, specifically Central Park 10 % Above 15 inches 30 % 10 -15 inches 30 % 6 -10 inches 20 % 3 -6 inch 10 % 1 -3 inch Best winter in 11 years, if we get a blockbuster Monday! This turns into an A winter if it hits! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Although the 15z NBM shows highs of 38° on Sunday and 37° on Monday, I suspect that the temperature will be near or just below freezing during the height of the storm. The 38° high on Sunday will occur before the onset of the storm. The 37° high on Monday will likely occur late in the day after the snow has moved away. Based on the standard deviation band, a reading in the upper 20s cannot be ruled out. We'll have to see where things are in the soundings for ratios, but this doesn't look like a low snow-liquid ratio event. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: From here: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/ Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I'm sure Lee Goldberg will have higher amounts when he comes on later this afternoon. Dollars to doughnuts he's waiting for more consensus, based on the next Euro run(s). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: TV is always going to be conservative this far out-by tomorrow different story viewers do not like hearing snow. they want to hear no snow.....i have friends right now saying it won't snow, it can't snow...not because of facts, but because they do not want it to snow....and those are the ones who are willing to even say the word...i know people who won't even say it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, weatherpruf said: viewers do not like hearing snow. they want to hear no snow.....i have friends right now saying it won't snow, it can't snow...not because of facts, but because they do not want it to snow....and those are the ones who are willing to even say the word...i know people who won't even say it. They definitely don't especially the closer we get towards spring. We're the crazy ones 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Although the 15z NBM shows highs of 38° on Sunday and 37° on Monday, I suspect that the temperature will be near or just below freezing during the height of the storm. The 38° high on Sunday will occur before the onset of the storm. The 37° high on Monday will likely occur late in the day after the snow has moved away. Based on the standard deviation band, a reading in the upper 20s cannot be ruled out. We'll have to see where things are in the soundings for ratios, but this doesn't look like a low snow-liquid ratio event.Also the NBM is gonna be incorrect bc there's a lot of time lagging involved in that dataset. If you have a way to view the percentile MaxT data, the 10th or 25th will probably be more representative. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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