Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[stormtracker]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+2-3 std +NAO on long range GFS ensembles

I hope you’re cool/cold rainy and miserable well into April. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope you’re cool/cold rainy and miserable well into April. 

It's going to be pretty interesting, because we'll be transitioning from weak La Nina to more El Nino conditions late March into early April. Completely new pattern has the potential to build at that time vs the consistency of what has been all Winter. The pattern right now is for things to cool down a little as they get closer, it should be interesting to see what happens as El Nino starts to build!

[NorthArlington101]

I think we’ve got at least one window in us after the thaw. We’re overdue April snow to some extent too

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since I moved 30 minutes north of Baltimore in 1998, 13/28 April's have had snow (flurries or more). 

Unfortunately, it's 0 for the last 5 though. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What's up with March for the last 6 (now 7), years? 

[Amped]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+2-3 std +NAO on long range GFS ensembles

Winter is probably gonna make a late March comeback. Probably too late for us, but good for areas north of Central PA.

Eps looks very similar.

[stormtracker]

47 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think we’ve got at least one window in us after the thaw. We’re overdue April snow to some extent too

Bring it home man. To hell with this talk of wanting sustained warmth. It ain’t over till it’s over. Can’t believe people punting in viable winter time. 

[Interstate]

Some people are going to be mad on Saturday. 30 degrees differences with about 100 miles 

[bncho]

we're back

[snowfan]

BDCF season baby

 

[stormtracker]

Let’s get thru this bs warm up and get back to tracking by the weekend. 

[WxUSAF]

Prepare for drought busting and shorts in December 

 

[Paleocene]

12 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Let’s get thru this bs warm up and get back to tracking by the weekend. 

tracking heat

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

tracking heat

Yeah he said after lol. Everybody knows it's gonna get warm this is an easy forecast. Looks like it gets cold after though that's what he's talking about

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

tracking heat

1 got one more in us.  Mark my words.  Enjoy the warmth while you can.  I’m not yielding until I have to.  We gotta stop this nonsense of giving up on March.  

[DDweatherman]

38 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

1 got one more in us.  Mark my words.  Enjoy the warmth while you can.  I’m not yielding until I have to.  We gotta stop this nonsense of giving up on March.  

I agree Randy. Though I don’t think they’re giving up on it as much as people are just moving on asking for warmth.

 

its been a frustrating and cold season. A lot of cold but maybe not the snow amounts we were hoping to associate with these departures. 

[Paleocene]

36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

1 got one more in us.  Mark my words.  Enjoy the warmth while you can.  I’m not yielding until I have to.  We gotta stop this nonsense of giving up on March.  

Fair enough. I am generally willing to concede March 1st - 15th as winter in the DC beltway area but after the 15th... we need luck. Of course there was 2014 (St. Patrick's Day), and then in 2018, we had snow March 21 which stuck around for a day.  Here's McKeldin Mall at UMD on the 22nd of March 2018, after we got about 3-4" the day before, I think.  2 years out of the last 12 == enough to not rule it out after the 15th, I guess.

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Prepare for drought busting and shorts in December 

 

Too early to declare strength of Niño imho. Just click bait.

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Too early to declare strength of Niño imho. Just click bait.

Agree on the first point but disagree it’s click bait. That subsurface warm water is really warm and widespread. But let’s see how things look in a few months.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Agree on the first point but disagree it’s click bait. That subsurface warm water is really warm and widespread. But let’s see how things look in a few months.

Click bait in the sense it's sensationalized. I know Webb is legit, but the need for clicks is never ending it seems.

[MountainGeek]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

1 got one more in us.  Mark my words.  Enjoy the warmth while you can.  I’m not yielding until I have to.  We gotta stop this nonsense of giving up on March.  

I'm liking this new version of Randy that returned from Houston. We should start a pool to send you to TX in Dec every year - lead us to the promised land!