2026-2027 Super El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO.

Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO.

Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

The PDO doesn’t force ENSO to do anything or prevent it from doing anything, it’s a completely separate extratropical entity. In fact, there are studies that show that ENSO events (especially strong ones) can influence/modulate the PDO if anything, not the other way around. Eric Webb has been arguing that the well coupled ++PMM (subtropical entity) is acting as a +PDO right now

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is some overlap, but ENSO and the PDO effect different areas in the Pacific - ENSO is further east and PDO is further west. 

[jaxjagman]

+PDO can happen even in a NINA,but more likely in a NINO,maybe more study to what actually starts a period?Dacula has the Index of the PDO going back into the last century

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There is some overlap, but ENSO and the PDO effect different areas in the Pacific - ENSO is further east and PDO is further west. 

Chuck and others, check this out:

June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958!

This is pretty surreal in our warming world:

2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C!

2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C

 

1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C

1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Ever since the Solar Max in May 2024, where a weakened magnetic field brought the aurora borealis very far towards the central part of the Earth - The warm season has been getting this cold 60-90N. At the end of last September, I think we had the lowest 500mb on record for the month in the N. Hemisphere, all time. 

[MJO812]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/a-mysterious-cold-blob-in-the-ocean-has-puzzled-scientists-a-new-study-says-its-an-ominous-sign/1901261?fbclid=IwdGRjcAScMnJjbGNrBJwyWWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHoTzcIYDR8FTJ2q60mKwMa-wZttSgo_VdFnjmDN1VFkHopXIeu02tI3bKBIm_aem_ErnINIq4n_cdpCDzVWjG6A

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Northern Russia gets 4980dm in mid-June tomorrow. Pretty impressive! 

[snowman19]

On 6/13/2026 at 6:09 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is warming again. Eastern subsurface is about to pop a +8c on TAO/Triton. If normal water is 65F, that's almost 80 degrees, 100 meters below the surface. In La nina it can possibly cool down to 55F, so it must be interesting the type of wildlife that has evolved there, along the equator. 

+8C in the subsurface is ridiculous. The warming at the surface has also been staggering

 

 

 

 

[chubbs]

In the past couple of weeks, daily record SST from satellite have expanded from the PMM into the enso regions and nearby, mainly N of the equator

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

+PDO can happen even in a NINA,but more likely in a NINO,maybe more study to what actually starts a period?Dacula has the Index of the PDO going back into the last century

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

I think 95-96 was the last time we had a solid +PDO la nina. Oddly enough, it followed the -PDO el nino in 94-95. I wonder what caused the inverse correlation of those years. Mind you this was at the end of a 20+ year +PDO period (the transition from +PDO to -PDO took place in between the super el nino and strong la nina in 1998).

Maybe we do get something similar this time around, a -PDO el nino in 26-27, followed by a +PDO la nina in 27-28. Then, one final -PDO event, before the transition to +PDO.

[snowman19]

In the past couple of weeks, daily record SST from satellite have expanded from the PMM into the enso regions and nearby, mainly N of the equator

Yep. And warming off the coast of South America has been increasing rapidly over the last week

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO.

Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

While the CFS missed the summer PDO drop last summer, it’s still forecasting the PDO to remain negative into next January.

Mostly due to the stronger ridge and lighter winds east of Japan. The main reason the current PDO is less strongly negative than recent years at this time is the record +PMM.

In the past record +PMM patterns often coincided with a robust +PDO before the warm pool emerged east of Japan.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/a-mysterious-cold-blob-in-the-ocean-has-puzzled-scientists-a-new-study-says-its-an-ominous-sign/1901261?fbclid=IwdGRjcAScMnJjbGNrBJwyWWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHoTzcIYDR8FTJ2q60mKwMa-wZttSgo_VdFnjmDN1VFkHopXIeu02tI3bKBIm_aem_ErnINIq4n_cdpCDzVWjG6A

"It plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping regulate global weather patterns. Its collapse would have enormous implications, including much more extreme winters"

On no, not that...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm sure someone is going to explain why it wouldn't be enjoyable and would entail certain economic collapse and death, but we are hammered with that over GW, anyway....so excuse me if I salvage bit of solace form the prospect of my final days being snow-filled.

[GaWx]

On 6/13/2026 at 12:38 PM, GaWx said:

 Despite being steady last 7 days, I predict that 3.4 will warm by 0.3 in Mon’s update because of how the weeks compare.

Nino 3.4 officially warmed by 0.2 in today’s update from +0.7 to +0.9:

 

                               1+2        3         3.4      4 

06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[bluewave]

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East.

Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative.

But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East.

Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative.

But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme. 
 

 

I was just thinking that yesterday on a totally anecdotal level...the big heat this month hasn't seemed Nino like. Glad the empirical data jives with my hunch.

[LakePaste25]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East.

Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative.

But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme. 
 

 

 

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just thinking that yesterday on a totally anecdotal level...the big heat this month hasn't seemed Nino like. Glad the empirical data jives with my hunch.

Ensembles really want to hang onto this W pac forcing too. Competing Nina influence for the foreseeable future. 

 

[snowman19]

[TheClimateChanger]

Just a heads-up, as I’ve seen this chart making the rounds: 

 

[snowman19]

@GaWx  Is the current MEI rise from March through May actually the biggest rise on record for that index like I’m reading on twitter? I only have the data through 1979 right now

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx  Is the current MEI rise from March through May actually the biggest rise on record for that index like I’m reading on twitter? I only have the data through 1979 right now

I see only 1979+ in the table. Based on it, the 2026 rise from MA to AM of 0.9C (-0.6 to +0.3) is the biggest rise for MA to AM since at least 1979. The previous biggest was the 0.7C of 2015:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[GaWx]

 The latest OISST 3.4 1991-2020 anom of +1.607, which is for June 14th, is the warmest for this Nino to date and is ~0.075C warmer than that for June 13th making it the largest warming for any day since June 5th:

[bluewave]

Impressive and record breaking Nino 3.4 lead over 2016 and 1997 for June 14th at 29.32C or +1.61 C.

 

[roardog]

Now that we’re heading through June we can see the big divergence with 1997 is going to be Nino 4. This shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone but it’s still a big deal IMO. 

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, roardog said:

Now that we’re heading through June we can see the big divergence with 1997 is going to be Nino 4. This shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone but it’s still a big deal IMO. 

There’s also a big divergence with 2015…this one is way more east-based than 2015 was

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s also a big divergence with 2015…this one is way more east-based than 2015 was

Here are CPC numbers for all 4 Enso areas for 6/10/15 & 6/10/26:

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3ⁿ

If you divide Enso 1.2 anomaly into the other 3 areas' anomalies for both years, you get respectively  60%, 45% and 45% in 2015 and 59.25%, 55.55% and 48.15% this year. Comparing the 2 years, Enso 3 is nearly identical for both years and 3.4 and 4 are a hair warmer this year than 2015.

Obviously, there may be other ways to figure it, but I'd have to say that they are very similar with a slight edge to 2015 as being more east based under this method.

P.s. @GaWx will surely check my math! Lol

[so_whats_happening]

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/climate/a-mysterious-cold-blob-in-the-ocean-has-puzzled-scientists-a-new-study-says-its-an-ominous-sign/1901261?fbclid=IwdGRjcAScMnJjbGNrBJwyWWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHoTzcIYDR8FTJ2q60mKwMa-wZttSgo_VdFnjmDN1VFkHopXIeu02tI3bKBIm_aem_ErnINIq4n_cdpCDzVWjG6A

Some recent studies show that the local cold blob in the North Atlantic is a result of stronger winds from the more persistent +NAOs rather than a slowdown in the AMOC.

 

 

 

 

‪Anthony Masiello‬ ‪@antmasiello.bsky.social‬

· 7mo

Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole.

 

 

‪Sang-Ki Lee‬

 ‪@sklee621.bsky.social‬

· 7mo

The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests: ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t...

The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research

This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant…

 

ocean2climate.org