2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Oct/Nov 1972 had a warm Stratosphere

But there are only 5 Super Nino analogs since satellite data in 1948 so it's not like you can say something that usually happens 10-15% of the time not happening is statistically relevant.

It's interesting that we are diverging from the Super warm Dec - 2015

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, EasternLI said:

While I do agree that a SSW is an outside outlier chance, as I have been saying. The chance is not zero as of yet. Clearly having one NOT occur is the favored outcome. As it would be an unprecedented event for the time of year. As such that will never be favored. At the same time, seeing the powerhouse Ural block and an unprecedented El Nino, maybe it's best to keep an open mind about something unprecedented. We did have the end of November action in the strat last year, which was largely dismissed by most (myself included) at the time as not being much of a factor. However it proved itself to be an important player further down the line. So it's probably wise to just keep tabs on it for now until the path forward becomes much clearer. 

 

As of the 00z 10-25 runs, the EPS achieves wind reversals on quite a few members 42%. That's not insignificant. The GEFS, after having zero interest at all originally, has started to have some lately. Now some of you might be thinking, but it looks like a torch during that period. You would be right, that is also a part of what usually happens during these types of things too. Even if it doesn't go off, there's probably ramifications either way. Worth watching imo.

 

I actually had 1981 as an analog, so I wasn't suprised by the early warming last year...I just didn't think it would end up as a full reversal..it was close.

[stadiumwave]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Oct/Nov 1972 had a warm Stratosphere

But there are only 5 Super Nino analogs since satellite data in 1948 so it's not like you can say something that usually happens 10-15% of the time not happening is statistically relevant.

It's interesting that we are diverging from the Super warm Dec - 2015

 

72 with the strong -PDO as well. Pretty sucky winter. 

[snowman19]

I actually had 1981 as an analog, si I wasn't suprised by the eaeky warming last year...I just didn't think it would end up as a full reversal..it was close.

I am sticking by the well established trend we’ve had for the last 46+ years…..El Nino/+QBO = warm December in the northeast/midatlantic. It’s not just a strong signal, it’s an EXTREMELY strong signal. All of them ended that way without any exceptions. I see no reason to believe otherwise right now. If I’m wrong then oh well, I’ll own it

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

72 with the strong -PDO as well. Pretty sucky winter. 

-PDO for different reasons, though...which is important down the line IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I am sticking by the well established trend we’ve had for the last 46+ years…..El Nino/+QBO = warm December in the northeast/midatlantic. It’s not just a strong signal, it’s an EXTREMELY strong signal. All of them ended that way without any exceptions. I see no reason to believe otherwise right now. If I’m wrong then oh well, I’ll own it

Warm, yea...2015? No.

[forkyfork]

why not? we have a decade of climate change on top of the baseline

[jaxjagman]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Warm, yea...2015? No.

Dont agree with 2015.The early onset of the strong NIno happened in 2014 comprared 82-97 and for that matter this year.In the NINO that developed in 2015 the Walker circulation broke down and you didnt see these WWB but saw EWB off South America

[mitchnick]

Lowest yet I believe. Maybe @GaWx or @Stormchaserchuck1 will correct me.

Bottom map is 10mb.

[snowman19]

[jaxjagman]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Thought the same thing,THE DMI tho was comparable to 1982 this year,but even so this NINO is kinda mind boggling with the PDO,the graph i posted above was the SSTS which clearly shows `95 was a west/central based NINO,unlike this year

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Dont agree with 2015.The early onset of the strong NIno happened in 2014 comprared 82-97 and for that matter this year.In the NINO that developed in 2015 the Walker circulation broke down and you didnt see these WWB but saw EWB off South America

Don't agree with what? I said December wouldn't be as warm as 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Thought the same thing,THE DMI tho was comparable to 1982 this year,but even so this NINO is kinda mind boggling with the PDO,the graph i posted above was the SSTS which clearly shows `95 was a west/central based NINO,unlike this year

95 faded west...it was more east-based, pretty much evenly distributed at peak.

[qg_omega]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't agree with what? I said December wouldn't be as warm as 2015.

Should be warmer

[A-L-E-K]

Enjoying that torch life

 

[frontranger8]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 
 Here are the lowest for the four years hitting record lows (since these graphs started in 1978-9) during the first 10 days of Nov:

2016-7: ~11 low (+QBO, the only one of these four years with QBO similar to 2026)

 

2009-10 (El Nino): ~11 low during Nov 1-10 only (-QBO)

 

 

2005-6: ~12 low (dropping +QBO)

 

2004-5 (El Nino): ~13 low (-QBO)

 The 0Z 10/25/26 progs are suggesting these +11 to +13 dips will likely be exceeded and quite possibly by a wide margin of 5 to 10.

*Edited to correct typos

I read 1968 also had a big SSW in November?

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

95 faded west...it was more east-based, pretty much evenly distributed at peak.

Did it really?My comments are by the strongest NINOS in the past and nothing resembles the 2015 NINO

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I am sticking by the well established trend we’ve had for the last 46+ years…..El Nino/+QBO = warm December in the northeast/midatlantic. It’s not just a strong signal, it’s an EXTREMELY strong signal. All of them ended that way without any exceptions. I see no reason to believe otherwise right now. If I’m wrong then oh well, I’ll own it

I agree with you but I'm on the dry warm train not the wet warm train.  I think this winter will be much more like 2001-02 than 1997-1998.  Most people care about the result much more than the cause. 2001 shows up in the records very strongly this week.

 

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Warm, yea...2015? No.

More like 2001. And also drier.

 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Of it's more like 2001-02 as I suspect it will be it will be drier than 1997-1998.  

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Enjoying that torch life

 

Matches what happened this week in 2001.

 

On 10/24/2026 at 4:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DE-FENCE----CLAP-CLAP-CLAP.....DE-FENCE-CLAP-CLAP-CLAP

He can whine all he wants I think this winter will be more like 2001-02 than 1997-1998.  2001-02 was the Michael Jordan of warm winters. I'm not talking about the cause but the result which is what most people care about.

 

 

On 10/24/2026 at 4:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

Yes much like November 2001 which shows up strongly in the records already this week.

 

On 10/24/2026 at 4:57 PM, MJO812 said:

Warm November ahead 

Yes November 2001 redux.

 

On 10/24/2026 at 5:17 PM, mitchnick said:

This Niño has got to be a financial windfall for the YouTube mets. 

Also for the vast majority of people who want to save on heating costs. My October bill is 650.

 

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

I'm glad he says warm in the east and not warm and wet.

 

9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The real question way too early is will the La Nina of 27-28 make 88-89 and 10-11 look weak

More like 83-84 and next summer will be a combo of 1983 and 2010. I'm really looking forward to that!

 

8 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

A strong “rebound” Nina isn’t guaranteed. cold neutral is on the table. 

Or more like 1983-84 and next summer will be a combo of 1983 and 2010.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Did it really?My comments are by the strongest NINOS in the past and nothing resembles the 2015 NINO

Yes, this is more east based at the surface then 2015, no one world argue otherwise.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

why not? we have a decade of climate change on top of the baseline

CC is one factor, but we lack the MC contribution that 2015 had, which accentuated the warmth. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Should be warmer

Warmer than +10 to +12 would be the apocalypse.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

More like 2001. And also drier.

I don't see why it should be drier....

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Warmer than +10 to +12 would be the apocalypse.  

Why? 2001-02 was warmer than 1997-98. Who pays your heating bill? Most people will be celebrating a winter that warm. 

 

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see why it should be drier....

No I mean drier than 1997-98 not drier than 2001-02.  But warmth on the level of 2001-02 which was a warmer winter than 1997-98. 

 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Why? 2001-02 was warmer than 1997-98. Who pays your heating bill? Most people will be celebrating a winter that warm. 

 

No I mean drier than 1997-98 not drier than 2001-02.  But warmth on the level of 2001-02 which was a warmer winter than 1997-98. 

 

I'm not sure it should be drier than 1997-98....stronger El Niño plus CC...I agree December will probably we warmer than 1997, but after that it's pretty iffy.