2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

Today’s GEFS NAO forecast is even more positive than yesterdays, which itself was much more + than last week’s GEFS: 

Today: gets down to only -0.6 and then quickly rises to +0.5 followed by drop back to 0:

 

Yesterday:

Last week: 

[Keith Central PA]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

According to the troll cult, no measurable snow for me this winter. By comparison, Detroit averages 37 days per season with measurable snowfall and in 152 years of record, the least was 15 days (1889-90). I assume this means you shall sprout palm trees by March. Can't wait til verification time!

That's impossible. I mean there's a chance the east coast could be shut out like 97-98, but the upper Midwest?..You'll get snow just by lake effect

[forkyfork]

12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

none of that is going to matter when there's a vortex locked over the northeast pacific extending into the west coast

i want someone to tell me how we manage to stay cold enough long enough for a snowstorm to happen on the east coast 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If NYC doesn't get more snowfall during the coming season than they did in 1997-1998, then I'll hand my site over to @MJO812and dissapear.

2nd worst winter ever in my location in NJ outside of the NYC.  5.5"   01-02 was the worst with 4".  96-97 - 01-02 was the worst 6 year stretch for me.  00-01 was good, but the others were all bad, all different enso's

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed...  I mean probably -  

Here's the thing ( though ) ENSO may not be effective in the hemispheric pattern modulation until the seasonal gradient steepens enough to trigger that forcing.

I've explained this in the past ...whether necessary to do so or not ( hey, that's how I roll! ), that it's not enough merely having these teleconnectors on the map.  They need to be effective, more importantly ...how to know when/if that is the case.

The way they become effecting is through gradient.  That is the metric that decides.  It goes back to fundamental physics.  IF A > B, A --> B 

That's how all nature works.  Period.   If that one fundamental universal aspect were not always the case in the cosmological perpetuity and infinity there would be no restoring force anywhere, and everything would stop.  A must be greater than B, in order for that action of A on B to take place.

So why that is important here. The amount of A had to be significant (enough) bigger than B (gradient) before the "-->" starts happening.  Synergy explodes out of "-->"

This, to the clever reader, is why RONI is both very necessary and works.  Because B is climate change and it is a +D(B) factor.  So.. the A growth has to grow even more to trigger the same "-->"  

Can't be explained any easier...

This ENSO is certainly a warm pig, but .. the world is a bigger warm hog right now. So, as eye-popping as this El Nino is, it is not entirely clear that it is operating/forcing on the system yet due to this over all arithmetic.  And so if it is not yet doing so, there is no synergy.   The synergy would be later on when seasonal/hemispheric gradient gets sufficient and ubiquitous.

ENSO isn't alone in that respect...watch the impact of that gradient between the boiling Kuroshio current and the Kona low west Hawaii and how it may impact the north Pacific along about mid season, which may constructively interfere with other high latitude blocking downstream over NA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i want someone to tell me how we manage to stay cold enough long enough for a snowstorm to happen on the east coast 

That's the thing...only need 24 hours-

[PhiEaglesfan712]

27 minutes ago, FPizz said:

2nd worst winter ever in my location in NJ outside of the NYC.  5.5"   01-02 was the worst with 4".  96-97 - 01-02 was the worst 6 year stretch for me.  00-01 was good, but the others were all bad, all different enso's

Even the ending of 00-01, with the March snowstorm bust, soured that season. But after 01-02 came one of the best 3-year stretches ever...

1997-98 super el nino was followed by 1998-2000 strong la nina. The 2nd year of the strong la nina (1999-2000) had a good few week stretch in January.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Majority of forecasts have the Midwest being thr warmest but to say no snow for the Midwest or great lakes is insane. 

 

Exactly. And remember departures are relative to average. The averages are way colder than the east coast. It can be in the + double digits and snow mid winter. 

[Terpeast]

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/2112536814758121610?s=46
 

warmest subsurface in east pacific is up to 92 F where its 12c above normal. Crazy

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly. And remember departures are relative to average. The averages are way colder than the east coast. It can be in the + double digits and snow mid winter. 

Yeah. It could be 32F for a low in January here which would be a massive positive departure and still have a snowstorm ongoing. 

[roardog]

17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly. And remember departures are relative to average. The averages are way colder than the east coast. It can be in the + double digits and snow mid winter. 

I remember we got a pretty good wet snowstorm here in January 2006( It was rain down your way) and that month was  a massive torch. 

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, roardog said:

I remember we got a pretty good wet snowstorm here in January 2006( It was rain down your way) and that month was  a massive torch. 

It turned to snow here. Got 4". I remember the storm you are talking about. Jan was a torch after a cold snowy Dec 2005. Pretty much expecting a torch month this winter (likely December) so when you get some good snows in the torch month its a bonus, considering the snow season runs November to April.

The whole "no snow" discussion is all trolling. Either that or absolutely NO concept of what Great Lakes and New England climate is.

[A-L-E-K]

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

They updated the definition last winter:

coping

/ˈkōpiNG/-

"When your warm winter freezes into a cold and snowy one, so you start to talk daily about the Western U.S. or elsewhere on the globe rather than the frozen landscape that is currently in your backyard".

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly. And remember departures are relative to average. The averages are way colder than the east coast. It can be in the + double digits and snow mid winter. 

Nice cold air coming into the country on long range gfs. Maybe some lake effect. 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's the thing...only need 24 hours-

you need the right pattern in place leading up to those 24 hours. notice the vortex in 2016 was further west than this year's forecast

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you need the right pattern in place leading up to those 24 hours. notice the vortex in 2016 was further west than this year's forecast

Hey, I'm not picky...I'll settle for January-February 1983, December 23, 1997 or January 7th, 2024...TBH the 2016 blizzard is the redux I'd pass on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Fact, not opinion....1972-1973 and 2015-2016 are the only two intense El Ninos that did not feature at least one storm of over a foot in this area...and I'd take my chances with January 2016 again.

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hey, I'm not picky...I'll settle for January-February 1983, December 23, 1997 or January 7th, 2024...TBH the 2016 blizzard is the redux I'd pass on.

i don't really give a shit

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/2112536814758121610?s=46
 

warmest subsurface in east pacific is up to 92 F where its 12c above normal. Crazy

Centered right under Nino 3 at +4.47 now. Starting to see a +30C warm pool bridge develop from Nino 3.4 over to the coast of Central America. Matches up with the record east based forcing for so early in an event.
 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

White flag

Finally...

[LakePaste25]

you guys are crazy trying to predict whether there’s going to be 1 big snow storm or not. There’s a reason I don’t do snow outlooks on a seasonal time scale. I rarely ever see anyone get those right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

you guys are crazy trying to predict whether there’s going to be 1 big snow storm or not. There’s a reason I don’t do snow outlooks on a seasonal time scale. I rarely ever see anyone get those right.

I would argue the guys speaking in absolutes that there won't be are crazy.

[roardog]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would argue the guys speaking in absolutes that there won't be are crazy.

I swear they act like Canada is going to be filled with 50 degree air all winter so there won’t be air cold enough to be pulled down even briefly. Canada is likely to be a torch but a Canadian torch in the middle of winter is still cold enough for snow.

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would argue the guys speaking in absolutes that there won't be are crazy.

Just need a few pacific storms to take that sharp turn north out by Hawaii for cold air phasing, à la feb 1983. Tough when you have a massive warm pool of raging 30C convection to directly to the south but not impossible.