2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like 2023-2024 to me.

Same general theme with more amplitude and warmth potential.
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same general theme with more amplitude and warmth potential.
 

 

I still think latter January into February would turn out better given less MC influence, but maybe a warmer earlier portion of the season biases the seasonal mean warmer.

I don't know of anyone offering resistance to the notion of a very mild December and January in the mean, so any uncertainty is surrounding February. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The models are developing two upper low pressure centers in the North Pacific as we head into late October. One area of lower pressures has already been developing over the Bering Sea through the first 16 days of October. The next center is forming over California and the Baja.

My guess is that the stronger mid-latitude pattern which has been keeping the big ridge east of Japan is currently overlapping with the super El Niño forcing. Almost like a filter if you like.

So this leads to the persistent -PDO that we have been experiencing instead of a +2.00 PDO which we would normally be getting with such a strong El Niño and +PMM. 

With such an historic east based event, the trough getting pushed into the West Coast will cause the Nino ridge to persist from the Upper Plains across the Great Lakes and into the East. 

October 500 mb pattern through the 16th

Forecast into late November

 

Horrific

[Typhoon Tip]

16 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Do agree,you might alrady be seeing this in the extened period,but right now a phoon going into East Asia is going to cause a Upper Level Ridge to build into the Sea of Japan,then days after into the plains and NE,Emembles show this very well

It's not a bad idea ... about the time of year when the west Pac TC teleconnector becomes more significant.

I'm noticing that we are being sort of "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W.  Technically a -PNAP baseline. It just one with limited warm benefits, because anticorrelary/anomalies are taking place within the more typical ridge region of the -PNAP...  Thus masking the former warmer signals to some degree.

The present extended out look has positive anomalies in the 500 mb non-hydrostatic heights ~ 70 % of the time over the eastern mid latitude continent.  This has been going on for awhile actually. In fact, we are like that now... yet have pervasive frost/freeze headlines throughout the OV and it's 25 to 30 F this morning throughout NE.  We've seen temperatures 80/60 with these heights in November before!   it's really interesting, this masking aspect.   

yet, despite ... the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually.  We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Seems as though the mid latitudes are just mired in this cool ENSO residue regardless of how pervasive El Nino grows in the tropics...and any assertion of El Nino in the mid latitudes just conspires with antecedent La Nina flavor to foster this even warmer, hybrid regime of sorts with the bifurcated Aleutian low...each node in an awful spot INVO the Bering Sea and SW CONUS, respectively.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not a bad idea ... about the time of year when the west Pac TC teleconnector becomes more significant.

I'm noticing that we are being sort of "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W.  Technically a -PNAP baseline. It just one with limited warm benefits, because anticorrelary/anomalies are taking place within the more typical ridge region of the -PNAP...  Thus masking the former warmer signals to some degree.

The present extended out look has positive anomalies in the 500 mb non-hydrostatic heights ~ 70 % of the time over the eastern mid latitude continent.  This has been going on for awhile actually. In fact, we are like that now... yet have pervasive frost/freeze headlines throughout the OV and it's 25 to 30 F this morning throughout NE.  We've seen temperatures 80/60 with these heights in November before!   it's really interesting, this masking aspect.   

yet, despite ... the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually.  We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics.  

Has to be mainly attributed to daily mins...just guessing....although certainly the past couple have been cold.

[LakePaste25]

Need to get rid of that +WPO. Always bad news for Ninos, let alone any ENSO. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems as though the mid latitudes are just mired in this cool ENSO residue regardless of how pervasive El Nino grows in the tropics...and any assertion of El Nino in the mid latitudes just conspires with antecedent La Nina flavor to foster this even warmer, hybrid regime of sorts with the bifurcated Aleutian low...each node in an awful spot INVO the Bering Sea and SW CONUS.

So you are disregarding last night's Eps that pulls the west coast trough wnw off the coast toward the GOA as well as the last 4 weeklies runs (at least) that has the Aleutian low and trough developing in the SE?

[LakePaste25]

Like I said, we need to ditch the +WPO. Probably as we approach mid November would my guess, once the Siberian High can flex east of the Himalayas while the MJO exits the Indian Ocean. Would force a more equatorward pac jet and an organized Aleutian/GOA Low.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Need to get rid of that +WPO. Always bad news for Ninos, let alone any ENSO. 

Every intense EL Nino has had it...only that was fairly neutral was 1982.....but I think that +WPO is part of the reason why February maybe somewhat better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So you are disregarding last night's Eps that pulls the west coast trough wnw off the coast toward the GOA as well as the last 4 weeklies runs (at least) that has the Aleutian low and trough developing in the SE?

I was just speaking of the image Chris posted.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every intense EL Nino has had it...only that was fairly neutral was 1982.....but I think that +WPO is part of the reason why February maybe somewhat better.

Relying on February to produce is a bad sign for the winter. Hopefully we get lucky with an event this winter

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Relying on February to produce is a bad sign for the winter. Hopefully we get lucky with an event this winter

 

Maybe latter January...I think we all agree that the seasonal mean will be tough sledding, no pun intended lol

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems as though the mid latitudes are just mired in this cool ENSO residue regardless of how pervasive El Nino grows in the tropics...and any assertion of El Nino in the mid latitudes just conspires with antecedent La Nina flavor to foster this even warmer, hybrid regime of sorts with the bifurcated Aleutian low...each node in an awful spot INVO the Bering Sea and SW CONUS.

Yup ... and I realize we've been over this aspect before.  But these signals don't turn an entire planetary system on it's head that quickly.  There's momentum stored in the other mode and takes time to move away.    

It's sort of analogous to a seasonal change ... ex, we don't observe Aug 15 --> Nov 15 on a straight 45 deg downward angular trajectory.  It goes back and forth while accumulating the lower height state over that span... in theory.  We can always count on a complete systemic rollback to July 15th on Xmas Eve!    So, as we go from a cool-->warm(vice versa) ENSO state, the atmosphere will tend to a kind of 'non-Markovian' echo of the form mode.  

It complicates matters further these days when/since previous modes became increasingly more disrupted ..heh.  However, in this case since the -PDO is significantly correlated to the -ENSO, and the PDO is really a reflection of the longer term SS wind stressing in the quasi-coupling of the air-sea environment out there (therefore, atmospheric mode-), there's decent enough confidence that we actually had an NINA hemisphere last winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... and I realize we've been over this aspect before.  But these signals don't turn an entire planetary system on it's head that quickly.  There's momentum stored in the other mode and takes time to move away.    

It's sort of analogous to a seasonal change ... ex, we don't observe Aug 15 --> Nov 15 on a straight 45 deg downward angular trajectory.  It goes back and forth while accumulating the lower height state over that span... in theory.  We can always count on a complete systemic rollback to July 15th on Xmas Eve!    So, as we go from a cool-->warm(vice versa) ENSO state, the atmosphere will tend to a kind of 'non-Markovian' echo of the form mode.  

It complicates matters further than the previous modes' are also being disruptive ..heh.  Since the -PDO is significantly correlated to the -ENSO, and the PDO is really a reflection of the longer term SS wind stressing in the quasi-coupling of the air-sea environment out there, there's decent enough confidence that we actually had an NINA hemisphere last winter. 

Yea, right.......but even considering that logic, you would think that there would be some additional give relative to 2023, whereas that former regime even more deeply entrenched....I mean, El Nino is stronger...PDO is less negative and the warm pool is further east. This is why I believe there is more wiggle room for a window later in the season.