2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

New OLR record for so early in an El Niño as this becomes the strongest east based event for the date.

In recent days, the warming has intensified off the coast of #Ecuador and northern #Perú. It is there that

@enfenperu

measures and assesses #ElNiñoCostero. From an atmospheric and oceanic perspective, OLR values are at historic lows for this time of year in the central and eastern Pacific. This is evidence of coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere. The depth of the warm waters to the west of #Galapagos (the last point where we can compare all events), the volume of warm water clearly exceeds that of 1997, while those of 2015 and 2023 were much smaller. This sheds light on the robustness of the event in the eastern Pacific.

 

 

My take is that we're .1 or .2 warmer than 1997, some 29 years ago, and despite the warming/warnings, neither the world nor mankind has ended as a result of GW. Enjoy the weekend all.

[so_whats_happening]

I will probably have to delete some attachments soon but doing a quick comparison to 1997 and 2026, slightly off time frames but similar process took place and we maybe should see similar results happen? Ill make one for 10-16 to end of 1997 at some point.

Shame we have so much cutoff right now. Open up new window and check them side by side to get a better comparison.

[jaxjagman]

On 8/25/2026 at 10:22 PM, EasternLI said:

Yeah. You would expect to see some recurving typhoons instead of that. Key part of the puzzle IMO. Which we are still waiting for... 

Yeah until that pesky ridge off SoithEastern Japan breaks down it shouldnt happen.Everytime you see long range models trying to show this in the long range is from troughs to fast or just not strong enough to do it to some extent and even when its gets broke down or shunted east it build back in the same parts in days

 

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah until that pesky ridge off Eastern Japan breaks down it shouldnt happen.Everytime you see long range models trying to show this in the long range is from troughs to fast or just not strong enough to do it to some extent and even when its gets broke down or shunted east it build back in the same parts in days

 

Exactly right. I've been noticing the same thing for at least a month now already. I have a hunch that changes in the fall but we'll see what happens. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah other than that stretch in late January, the last 2 winters featured just normal winter cold that we used to get much more frequently. 

Yeah, the winters in the Northeast and across the CONUS really warmed following the 2015-2016 baseline temperature jump. Last winter was our first colder winter against the long term means since 2014-2015 in the Northeast.

Almost seems like the 2015-2016 caused more of a non-linear shift than something gradual. 

So it will be interesting to see what things look like following this significantly stronger El Niño. Getting 3 baseline increases from 2015-2016 to 2023-2024 and now 2026-2027 is very extreme for such a short period of time. 

We had to wait 18 years from 1997-1998 to 2015-2016. Now we are getting our first super El Niños only 3 years apart. Matches with the findings of the recent corals studies showing stronger El Niños as the climate warms. 
 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^You like to take small samples and apply absolutes to them. Every thing that happens isn't because global warming is happening. I think history shows us that when we have something like 5/6 consecutive La Nina's before this year, and >50% of La Nina's since 1998, it in every case reverses hard thereafter. We all predicted this 2 years ago. Solar Max +2 years is a pretty good warm ENSO correlation as well. What's the global temperature rise, +0.3-4c/yr for ENSO? That's probably the rate of warming. We've had mostly La Nina's since 1998. 

A few years ago we were hearing about how global warming was causing more La Nina's 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

"Points", "next level", "new threshold".. they are fictions of the mind. The mind likes structure. It also communicates more confidently when referring to it. There is no finite system that is baking out things when new El Nino's are hit. It's smooth - the global temperature rise is linear to localized warmings over a large enough sample. 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The cold in the East this past winter was weak sauce compared the the hard winters of the 1970s.

Though compared to the preceding years it felt a lot colder than the numbers would suggest. 

Because when winters are +5 or better with some months at +9 or +10 then even normal feels frigid. 

[FPizz]

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Though compared to the preceding years it felt a lot colder than the numbers would suggest. 

Because when winters are +5 or better with some months at +9 or +10 then even normal feels frigid. 

No one was comparing to the colder 70s, or 95/96 winter, etc. for that matter. He always points to the year(s) that are out of the ordinary and acts like thats what happened all the time.  What you just stated was perfect.  Compared to the previous years, it was colder, which is a fact, end of story. Not historic but for some areas like here in NJ, memorable for the numerous days of total snowcover due to it being colder and much snowier than average, which isnt that common. No one was saying it was a top 10 cold winter or anything of the sort.  It's like we arent allowed to say that it felt cold or it offends him.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^You like to take small samples and apply absolutes to them. Every thing that happens isn't because global warming is happening. I think history shows us that when we have something like 5/6 consecutive La Nina's before this year, and >50% of La Nina's since 1998, it in every case reverses hard thereafter. We all predicted this 2 years ago. Solar Max +2 years is a pretty good warm ENSO correlation as well. What's the global temperature rise, +0.3-4c/yr for ENSO? That's probably the rate of warming. We've had mostly La Nina's since 1998. 

A few years ago we were hearing about how global warming was causing more La Nina's 

Sample sizes in a rapidly shifting climate will never be as large as they were when we were on a colder and more stable temperature regime prior to the 1980s and 1990s. 

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

"Points", "next level", "new threshold".. they are fictions of the mind. The mind likes structure. It also communicates more confidently when referring to it. There is no finite system that is baking out things when new El Nino's are hit. It's smooth - the global temperature rise is linear to localized warmings over a large enough sample. 

Thresholds are a common part of systems like the climate which can have non-linear elements blending with more familiar linear ones. But the models aren’t advanced enough to know exactly where these are ahead of time. Most of the time a crossed threshold is a rear view mirror assessment. This is what so many climate studies come out after the fact instead of before.

20 minutes ago, FPizz said:

No one was comparing to the colder 70s, or 95/96 winter, etc. for that matter. He always points to the year(s) that are out of the ordinary and acts like thats what happened all the time.  What you just stated was perfect.  Compared to the previous years, it was colder, which is a fact, end of story. Not historic but for some areas like here in NJ, memorable for the numerous days of total snowcover due to it being colder and much snowier than average, which isnt that common. No one was saying it was a top 10 cold winter or anything of the sort.  It's like we arent allowed to say that it felt cold or it offends him.  

The post I responded to said the coldest stretch since the 1970s.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Sample sizes in a rapidly shifting climate will never be as large as they were when we were on a colder and more stable temperature regime prior to the 1980s and 1990s. 

Thresholds are a common part of systems like the climate which can have non-linear elements blending with more familiar linear ones. But the models aren’t advanced enough to know exactly where these are ahead of time. Most of the time a crossed threshold is a rear view mirror assessment. This is what so many climate studies come out after the fact instead of before.

LOL.. the post I responded to said the coldest since the 1970s. 

It just comes across like you think things like NAO, PNA, etc are altered from new Super El Nino's happening. We are probably rate of global warming x 2013-14 likely to see a Winter that cold again. Indices have not been on track since 2016 and that is a significant part of the NE warming trend. The 1970s were a big dip down in the late 1800s - 1960s global warming. No one is saying warming isn't happening but it's becoming too comfortable and too specific. 

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the winters in the Northeast and across the CONUS really warmed following the 2015-2016 baseline temperature jump. Last winter was our first colder winter against the long term means since 2014-2015 in the Northeast.

Almost seems like the 2015-2016 caused more of a non-linear shift than something gradual. 

So it will be interesting to see what things look like following this significantly stronger El Niño. Getting 3 baseline increases from 2015-2016 to 2023-2024 and now 2026-2027 is very extreme for such a short period of time. 

We had to wait 18 years from 1997-1998 to 2015-2016. Now we are getting our first super El Niños only 3 years apart. Matches with the findings of the recent corals studies showing stronger El Niños as the climate warms. 
 

 

 

 

Its really not that big of a deal. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It just comes across like you think things like NAO, PNA, etc are altered from new Super El Nino's happening. We are probably rate of global warming x 2013-14 likely to see a Winter that cold again. Indices have not been on track since 2016 and that is a significant part of the NE warming trend. The 1970s were a big dip down in the late 1800s - 1960s global warming. No one is saying warming isn't happening but it's becoming too comfortable and too specific. 

There are papers discussing changes to the teleconnections like the NAO and AO as the climate continues to warm. Bigger swings from one state to another. One of the best papers actually came out a year before the biggest swings began in the NAO and AO in 2009-2010. That is more the exception than the rule since most papers only come out after the change had already occurred.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are papers discussing changes to the teleconnections like the NAO and AO as the climate continues to warm. Bigger swings from one state to another. One of the best papers actually came out a year before the biggest swings began in the NAO and AO in 2009-2010. That is more the exception than the rule since most papers only come out after the change had already occurred.

The problem with that is, whatever is happening at the time is correlated to the linear rise in temperature. I would think there would just be more global high pressure, a more stable system - bigger swings does not jive with a total warming climate. 09-10 was the lowest NAO since the mid 1800s. I thought global warming would really inflate high pressure at the poles - but the opposite has happened over the last 11 years. Now it's swings or whatever that is the product of global warming. Something else I think is causing the mid latitude temps to rise relative to the poles. 

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are papers discussing changes to the teleconnections like the NAO and AO as the climate continues to warm. Bigger swings from one state to another. One of the best papers actually came out a year before the biggest swings began in the NAO and AO in 2009-2010. That is more the exception than the rule since most papers only come out after the change had already occurred.

Papers by people who have an agenda or financed by those in a position to profit? Idk, just asking. I find it hard to believe anything I read when comes to any issue that's been politicized. And even when results are true, mundane results can be hyped or sensationalized to create a false impression of importance/urgency. Like making a big deal about the rising of a few tenths of a degree in a very small portion of the Pacific off S. America when the record was 29 years ago. I mean if GW was so urgent, it wouldn't have taken 29 years to beat the record by a few tenths of a degree. That doesn't strike me as a "rapidly shifting climate."

 

[raindancewx]

The Canadian outlook for August verified way too cold for the US. Far too wet too. Worth keeping in mind for what it shows over the next few months. Fall months are often the hardest to predict anyway, particularly October, so not expecting much accuracy from these outlooks for a while. Colorado is +5F in areas expected to be -1F to -2F v. long-term averages as an example.

[jaxjagman]

8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah until that pesky ridge off SoithEastern Japan breaks down it shouldnt happen.Everytime you see long range models trying to show this in the long range is from troughs to fast or just not strong enough to do it to some extent and even when its gets broke down or shunted east it build back in the same parts in days

 

We had a -PDO back into 1972 into the June,and in August was one of the strongest solar storms on record.The CME reached earth in 14+ hours,that must have been one impressive storm to blow sea mines in the VietNam War,if that is true,but that must have been a quite an impressive light show either way

[ensonerd1233e343]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. The planet doesn’t care about relative metrics as the global temperatures are setting records every day now with how extreme this event is becoming.

What? No 

Roni def is a realstic gague 

thats the reason noaa uses it lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Canadian outlook for August verified way too cold for the US. Far too wet too. Worth keeping in mind for what it shows over the next few months. Fall months are often the hardest to predict anyway, particularly October, so not expecting much accuracy from these outlooks for a while. Colorado is +5F in areas expected to be -1F to -2F v. long-term averages as an example.

Yea, I think the JMA is too cold, too. ...they both have the El Niño with a hard shift towards Modoki. I think the EURO is more reasonable with a basin-wide shift.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the problem with any issue as politicized as CC....no one is ever going to "win", or change their mind because the data is always going to be shoehorned into a specific ideology. We could end up somehow having this winter be colder than last year and I would bet my life they would find a way to link it to CC.

 

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The problem with that is, whatever is happening at the time is correlated to the linear rise in temperature. I would think there would just be more global high pressure, a more stable system - bigger swings does not jive with a total warming climate. 09-10 was the lowest NAO since the mid 1800s. I thought global warming would really inflate high pressure at the poles - but the opposite has happened over the last 11 years. Now it's swings or whatever that is the product of global warming. Something else I think is causing the mid latitude temps to rise relative to the poles. 

Yup.

[raindancewx]

The recent El Nino Summers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) as a blend are pretty close to 2026 for Jun-Aug - not quite by magnitude but in terms of pattern.

Close match for Sept on the CFS too. Honestly, it's probably a decent match overall. 2015/2023 - very strong El Ninos with high solar, neutral/negative PDO values in all four years. Warm Atlantic. 2015/2018 both followed very warm/dry Western winters like 2026 will. Decent QBO match too.

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

Interesting post about the SOI with how east based this event is becoming.

I am conducting an interesting experiment due to the fact that this El Niño is exceptionally east based weighted, so much so that it has actually caused sea level pressure anomalies to shift slightly eastward. This in my amount of studying and research shows that this might be skewing the traditional Troup SOI index which is ran traditionally from Darwin, Australia to Tahiti in the central Pacific. so the new index still uses the same formula and is ran from Darwin in Australia, but here’s the difference it now runs to Nuku Hiva island, which is almost 700 miles northeast of Tahiti, but in a latitude since it lines up pretty well with Darwin, which gets this a better result. I found that the SOI in my research and studying was around 10 to 15 more into the negative compared to the traditional index. The picture below really tells the difference on August 28. I used the Tahiti to Darwin formula which is a traditional version which is still used by BOM. But today on 29 August, I used a different formula the Darwin to Neku Hiva and found that the -19.85 really matches well with what we’re seeing right now as far as a sea level pressure anomaly dipole. I’m hoping meteorologists that find this post useful will hopefully help to diagnose the strength of this El Niño true its true colors. So if you all can leave a reply below this post and let me know what your thoughts are. That would be absolutely helpful because I believe this will better assess the true strength of this El Niño event and future ENSO events.