2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

and now this board is a wishcast echo chamber. congrats

See ya...we'll miss this post quality.

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See ya...we'll miss this post quality.

why should i give you my expertise for free

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

why should i give you my expertise for free

Honestly, though...I don't think anyone could read through my material over the course of the past couple of years and come away with the conclusion that I am in denial of, or neglecting CC.  I think that is also true of this forum for the most part.

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honestly, though...I don't think anyone could read through my material over the course of the past couple of years and come away with the conclusion that I am in denial of, or neglecting CC.  I think that is also true of this forum for the most part.

i just don't get anything out of talking to people who don't know that much

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i just don't get anything out of talking to people who don't know that much

I just don't get anything out of operating under the assumption that others have nothing to offer.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is a stronger event than the 1877-1878 reanalysis. It has significantly more oceanic heat to work with. That event produced what is probably the highest consecutive three month DJF departures for a single CONUS long term weather station. So not a stretch to say this is the strongest El Niño event in a long time.

 

MSP

Dec 1877…..+14.5°

Jan 1878…..+10.2°

Feb 1878…..+15.8°

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with independent SOI index derived from sea level pressure measurements in Darwin and Tahiti (Trenberth 1984). This El Niño event in ERSSTv5 is also consistent with the precipitation and temperature proxy data derived from tree rings and coral reefs and from the great famine record in southeastern Asia and Africa (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Allan et al. 1991; D’Arrigo et al. 2008; Garden 2008; Hao et al. 2010; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018; Lough et al. 2018). For example, Singh et al. (2018) used the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Asia and demonstrated a record-breaking El Niño during 1877/78. D’Arrigo et al. (2008) used the PDSI in Australia and Lough et al. (2018) used the degree heating month index (DHMI) derived from coral reef in the tropical oceans; both showed a strong El Niño event during 1877/78.

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with that in HadSST1 (Fig. 2c; dotted blue) (Rayner et al. 2003). The Niño-3 index is approximately 0.5°C lower in HadISST1 than in ERSSTv5 from January 1877 to February 1878, which is in the range of the uncertainty of ERSSTv5 as indicated in Fig. 5d and Table 1. The temporal correlation between ERSSTv5 and HadISST1 Niño-3 indices between January 1877 and January 1879 is high (approximately 0.94). The consistency between the 1997/98 El Niño events in ERSSTv5 and HadSST1 is very good with strong correlations (0.99) between January 1997 and January 1999 (Fig. 2f).

In conclusion, the strength (2.8°–3.5°C) and uncertainty (0.5°C) of the 1877/78 El Niño event are quantified by evaluating the selection of certain parameters in the ERSSTv5 ensemble. The strength of the 1877/78 El Niño appears approximately equal to those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16.

 

No doubt its going to be warmer than normal but those temperature departures are ridiculous. Just remember the warmest winter we had was 01-02 and that was neutral enso..Who really knows?

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

No doubt its going to be warmer than normal but those temperature departures are ridiculous. Just remember the warmest winter we had was 01-02 and that was neutral enso..Who really knows?

Our warmest since 1980:

16-7 (Niña)

22-3 (Nina)

19-20 (WN)

18-19 (Nino)

15-16 (Nino)

21-2 (Nina)

12-13 (CN)

11-12 (Nina)

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just don't get anything out of operating under the assumption that others have nothing to offer.

i've been on these boards for over a decade. no assumptions needed

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i've been on these boards for over a decade. no assumptions needed

Why are you still here if you find nothing of value?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F. 

Been working on the Pacific....2009 is actually damn good extra tropical Pacific analog.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Something to think of: With the aurora borealis making it so close to the equator for the first time in 500+ years, a few years ago, and this Record El Nino by +20% occurring 2 years after that, is there a connection? Are we possibly underestimating just how big this solar max was, or maybe the Earth's magnetic field is weaker? 

Solar Cycle +2 years before 2020

Just a coincidence? I know ENSO historically "evens out", and this one is "evening out" Nina's going back to 1998.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is a stronger event than the 1877-1878 reanalysis. It has significantly more oceanic heat to work with. That event produced what is probably the highest consecutive three month DJF departures for a single CONUS long term weather station. So not a stretch to say this is the strongest El Niño event in a long time.

 

MSP

Dec 1877…..+14.5°

Jan 1878…..+10.2°

Feb 1878…..+15.8°

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with independent SOI index derived from sea level pressure measurements in Darwin and Tahiti (Trenberth 1984). This El Niño event in ERSSTv5 is also consistent with the precipitation and temperature proxy data derived from tree rings and coral reefs and from the great famine record in southeastern Asia and Africa (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Allan et al. 1991; D’Arrigo et al. 2008; Garden 2008; Hao et al. 2010; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018; Lough et al. 2018). For example, Singh et al. (2018) used the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Asia and demonstrated a record-breaking El Niño during 1877/78. D’Arrigo et al. (2008) used the PDSI in Australia and Lough et al. (2018) used the degree heating month index (DHMI) derived from coral reef in the tropical oceans; both showed a strong El Niño event during 1877/78.

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with that in HadSST1 (Fig. 2c; dotted blue) (Rayner et al. 2003). The Niño-3 index is approximately 0.5°C lower in HadISST1 than in ERSSTv5 from January 1877 to February 1878, which is in the range of the uncertainty of ERSSTv5 as indicated in Fig. 5d and Table 1. The temporal correlation between ERSSTv5 and HadISST1 Niño-3 indices between January 1877 and January 1879 is high (approximately 0.94). The consistency between the 1997/98 El Niño events in ERSSTv5 and HadSST1 is very good with strong correlations (0.99) between January 1997 and January 1999 (Fig. 2f).

In conclusion, the strength (2.8°–3.5°C) and uncertainty (0.5°C) of the 1877/78 El Niño event are quantified by evaluating the selection of certain parameters in the ERSSTv5 ensemble. The strength of the 1877/78 El Niño appears approximately equal to those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16.

 

The core of warmth in 1877-78 was in the upper midwest and into Canada. It wasn't even a mild winter on the east coast. It ranks only 12th warmest from 1869-1900 at NYC.

1877-78 departures using today's averages

MSP
Dec: +11.8°
Jan: +5.6°
Feb: +10.9°

DTW
Dec: +6.8°
Jan: +1.5°
Feb: +1.2°

NYC
Dec: -1.7°
Jan: -3.8°
Feb: -3.6°

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something to think of: With the aurora borealis making it so close to the equator for the first time in 300+ years, a few years ago, and this Record El Nino by +20% occurring 2 years after that, is there a connection? Are we possibly underestimating just how big this solar max was, or maybe the Earth's magnetic field is weaker? 

Solar Cycle +2 years before 2020

There is obviously a connection between solar and ENSO..I pointed that out last week, then some new poster disputed it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

The core of warmth in 1877-78 was in the upper midwest and into Canada. It wasn't even a mild winter on the east coast. It ranks only 12th warmest from 1869-1900 at NYC.

1877-78 departures using today's averages

MSP
Dec: +11.8°
Jan: +5.6°
Feb: +10.9°

DTW
Dec: +6.8°
Jan: +1.5°
Feb: +1.2°

NYC
Dec: -1.7°
Jan: -3.8°
Feb: -3.6°

Still sucked for snowfall on the east coast.

[MJO812]

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still sucked for snowfall on the east coast.

Duluth, MN was even crazier than Minneapolis. Again, these are today's averages.

DULUTH
Dec: +15.6°
Jan: +9.3°
Feb: +15.6°

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still sucked for snowfall on the east coast.

Most of the places I looked up didn't have snow records yet.

Detroit had a near avg snow season at 43.4".

NYC was well below at 8.1"

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Most of the places I looked up didn't have snow records yet.

Detroit had a near avg snow season at 43.4".

NYC was well below at 8.1"

Looking at those temp departures, It looks like we were in between the “cold” east of here and the very mild not too far west of here. I could see how it could have been a clipper pattern around here that winter.  I wonder if that is what helped Detroit to get to average snow.

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

Looking at those temp departures, It looks like we were in between the “cold” east of here and the very mild not too far west of here. I could see how it could have been a clipper pattern around here that winter.  I wonder if that is what helped Detroit to get to average snow.

There was a big 14.8" snowstorm Jan 31st.

[JACKASS]

I’ll admit that @forkyforkis an odd duck.

However, as Kush (who has been banned for other reasons) made it clear,  forky was one of the very few “icepussy” mets on this forum.

Just a reminder.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

I’ll admit that @forkyforkis an odd duck.

However, as Kush (who has been banned for other reasons) made it clear,  forky was one of the very few “icepussy” mets on this forum.

Just a reminder.

He does not know his shit, which is why the nonsense-troll MO is so frustrating. ...every now and then, I get a DM from him on actual weather in the lead up to a huge event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That looks centered on the PNW/SW Canada...could be worse. NAO-east, too.